Back the Panthers to tie series with Rangers in Game 4 of Eastern Conference Finals matchup

Despite winning the Presidents Trophy and posting an 8-2 record in the opening two rounds of the playoffs, the Rangers entered the Eastern Conference finals against Florida as heavy underdogs.

They were particularly large underdogs in Game 3, and once again proved oddsmakers wrong by stealing a 5-4 overtime victory.

On Tuesday night in Game 4, it’s the same story; with a chance to go up 3-1 in the series, the Rangers are large underdogs again.

Odds via ESPN Bet

All season, the Rangers have produced incredible results despite their overall process not being consistent with the way most elite teams generate wins. They have relied upon magnificent goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, and continue to finish chances at a higher rate than expected.

Oddsmakers pour endless amounts of money into creating accurate power rankings to help set accurate prices. What the Rangers are doing continues to defy oddsmakers’ expectations, as well as the expectations of public NHL models.

In Round 2 versus an excellent Hurricanes team, New York effectively created equally threatening chances while owning less of the overall time of possession. That was also the case in Games 1 and 2 of the East finals, and it was by no means luck that the series shifted to Sunrise, Fla., tied at a game apiece.

The Rangers undeniably deserve to be in this series and are better than their analytical profile suggests because of their clinical finishing and elite goaltending. Those things can be true while also pointing out that their Game 3 performance was pretty hideous, and a similar performance is doubtful to produce the same result on Tuesday.

» READ MORE: Bet on a high scoring Game 4 between the Mavericks and Timberwolves of the WCF

The Rangers were crushed in most key areas of the game, and if not for Gustav Forsling hitting the post at 4-4, they would have blown a lead that they never deserved in the first place.

Alexis Lafreniere deserves full credit for coming up with two all-world goals, but nothing about the Rangers’ Game 3 victory is sustainable against Florida.

The Panthers outshot the Rangers 37-20 in Game 3 and managed a whopping 31 shots on goal from the slot area. Florida’s forecheck caused lots of issues for the Rangers’ blue-liners, who struggled to find plays under heavy pressure.

Sergei Bobrovsky allowed five goals on only 23 shots. It’s  foolish to expect Bobrovsky to play at such a low level again. He has been fantastic in each of the last two postseasons, and is nominated for the Vezina for top goaltender based upon this year’s regular season.

It seems a little ugly to back the Panthers at -160 given New York’s overall profile. In this specific matchup, however, I feel confident the Panthers will look worthy of that price tag and find a way to earn the result they deserved in Game 3.

As an aside, I’ll note that many bettors who like Florida (or any heavy favorite) will opt to play that side to win in regulation or to cover the puck line. While I would not disagree with those options, over the entirety of the regular season, heavy favorites actually were more profitable to their standard money line.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.