Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction: How we’re betting Sunday’s Premier League clash

It’s a marquee Premier League clash with title and top-four implications as we’re set to share our Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction.

Both teams enter this match fresh off grabbing three points. Newcastle secured a 3-1 home win against Southampton last weekend while Arsenal ended a four-match winless run by defeating Chelsea 3-1 in the midweek.

That leaves Arsenal, who have played a game more than Manchester City, a point behind for the title. As for Newcastle, they sit third on 65 points, comfortably in the Champions League places.

Newcastle is a +150 favorite on the three-way moneyline with Arsenal priced at +160 and the draw +260. The total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -165 to the over.

Newcastle earned a point in the reverse fixture at the Emirates and I can’t foresee them dropping points at home.

Put simply, the Magpies have played brilliant soccer under Eddie Howe at home this season. Through 16 matches at St. James’ Park, Newcastle United has dropped all three points only once.

That came when they played down a man against Liverpool for virtually the entire match. And yet, they still won the expected goals battle for the game.

With a +1.41 expected goal differential per 90 at home, Newcastle own the second-best rate among the 20 sides behind only Manchester City.

Now, they get to face an Arsenal side ripe for negative regression away from home. The Gunners enter this match with a +16 road goal differential compared to only a +6.3 expected goal differential.

Most of that overperformance has come on the offensive end, but the scarier part for this match is that Arsenal are simultaneously a negative defensive regression candidate. In those 17 performances, they’ve conceded 17 goals against 21 expected, per fbref.com.

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That could spell trouble against a Newcastle United team primed for positive offensive regression at home. In 16 domestic games, the Magpies have scored 32 home goals off 36.4 expected, again per fbref.com.

Against an Arsenal defense that likely won’t have William Saliba and saw Gabriel limp off in the midweek, the Newcastle United offense should do enough that they won’t lose the match outright.

From there, the question of whether Newcastle wins the match likely comes down to their defensive play.

Newcastle has produced mixed results against outstanding attacks at home — only 1.4 xGA vs. Tottenham and Manchester United, but 4.0 combined xGA vs. Liverpool and Manchester City.

That said, in Arsenal’s four road matches against Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United — the four best home defenses they’ve faced — manager Mikel Arteta’s side has created 6.2 expected goals, with 48 percent of that total coming against Brighton.

Given those results, I’ll back the hosts to earn a result at -135 or better.

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