Bet on this three-leg parlay that involves a Spain win or tie against France in the Euros semifinal

We’ve reached the semifinal round of the 2024 European Championship, with Spain facing France on Tuesday night in Munich.

Both teams used differing styles to reach this stage of the competition. Spain has been on the front foot offensively, ranking second in goals (10) and fourth in possession (56.8%). France has relied more on defense, with the second-best (0.69) non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes (npxG/90).

Something will have to give in this matchup of two powerhouse footballing nations with five European Championships (Spain won in 1964, 2008 and 2012 while France won in 1984 and 2000) between them.

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There’s no question Spain has been the best team in this tournament. Its 10.2 expected goals (xG) is the best in the competition along with its +9 goal differential.

Spain has been able to be efficient in front of goal thanks to a very straightforward approach.

La Roja has three players – Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo – who possess a ball-carrying skill that’s somewhat lost in the modern era.

Williams is coming off a campaign in which he led Spain’s La Liga in assisted goals (seven) with a ball-carrying build-up. The Athletic Bilbao winger is averaging the highest expected assists (0.48) per 90 minutes in this tournament among players who registered at least 250 minutes.

Behind Williams on that list are teammates Yamal (0.41) and Olmo (0.40). While Williams is skillful enough to handle the bulk of the attack on the left flank, Yamal and Olmo often combine in tandem on the right. Olmo can overlap with Yamal to create passing triangles on the right side, and he’s not afraid to take defenders on.

The RB Leipzig player ranks fifth among midfielders and forwards with at least 250 minutes at the tournament in progressive carries traveled (146.1 meters) with the ball. Yamal (178.6 meters) is directly ahead in fourth while Williams ranks eighth (130.0 meters).

Those three players will be particularly key in La Roja’s quest to breach France’s solid defensive backline.

While Didier Deschamps is known for his pragmatic approach, he’s always still managed to have a bit of flair within his team. However, France desperately lacks the type of player who can dominate the attacking third with box-to-box runs.

The reality is there hasn’t been a like-for-like replacement in the midfield since Paul Pobba’s absence due to injuries and a doping suspension. Instead, Deschamps is opting to use N’Golo Kante to try and replicate Pogba’s role in the attack.

While Kante is certainly a tireless player who can get up and down the pitch, he’s not as skilled at taking on players and delivering the final pass. Moreover, he doesn’t pose a scoring threat like Pogba who would often arrive late into the box and latch onto a cross.

As a result, France has become much more of a counter-attacking team looking to spray the ball into the flanks when there’s a change of possession and take advantage of the pace of players like Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele.

However, with France’s goals essentially drying up (one goal scored via penalty and two own goals scored by opponents), Deschamps opted to bench Dembele in favor of his PSG teammate, Randal Kolo Muani.

Deschamps has played a different formation in France’s four matches and has yet to find the right balance.

Given Les Bleus’ struggles to score goals, it is difficult to expect them to suddenly find the target against a well-disciplined Spanish side.

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If you’re a staunch believer in advanced metrics, you might say the French are due for some success, given their 7.9 xG mark. To fully embrace that theory, you’d probably want to see some regression from the Spaniards. However, Spain’s 10 goals align nicely with its 10.2 xG.

While this level of football is all about being efficient and clinical in front of goal, one mistake can completely change the complexion of a match. France has rarely made that mistake, thanks to its stout defense.

The total for this match is heavily juiced to the under, with multiple sportsbooks opting to list 1.5 goals instead of 2.5. Those numbers point to the respect bookmakers have France’s defense.

Les Bleus won a penalty shootout (5-3) in the Round of 16 against Portugal, which could give them an extra boost of confidence if the match remains tied after 120 minutes.

French goalkeeper Mike Maignan has a 94% save percentage at the Euros, the best mark of any netminder who has played more than one game. He also has four shutouts in five games, and the only goal he conceded was a penalty scored by Robert Lewandowski despite saving the initial attempt.

The referee granted Lewandowski another attempt after deeming Maignan didn’t have at least one foot on the goal line.

Spain’s best chance to win the match might be in 90 minutes, or it could face a very in-form Maignan in a shootout.

Thus, instead of backing La Roja on the three-way moneyline, I’d recommend a bet365 same-game parlay with Spain to win or draw, finish with the most shots on target, and each team to receive at least one card.

Spain’s shots on target (35) are almost twice that of France (20), and both teams received at least one card in seven of their eight matches in this competition.

The stakes can’t be any higher with a place in the finals at stake, and given the offensive firepower on both sides, look for the attacking players to ask questions of the defense.

Best bet: Same-game parlay (+170)

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