Super Bowl 2023 predictions: MVP odds, picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles

The Super Bowl MVP betting market opened a month ago, with oddsmakers posting prices on hundreds of candidates representing the NFL’s 14 playoff teams.

Now? We’re down to two teams and a couple dozen candidates — only a handful of whom are thought to have a legitimate shot at hoisting the hardware.

Along the way, we’ve kept you apprised of the Super Bowl MVP odds moves, betting action and historical trends. We even provided a breakdown of the top contenders and why each might be worthy of a wager.

Now, though, it’s time to jump off the fence and make some Super Bowl MVP predictions. Here are our best bets to win the MVP of Super Bowl 57 on Sunday in Glendale, Arizona — one player from each team.

Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 9.

The approach to betting Super Bowl MVP is no different than any other futures bets — it’s all about value.

That means three things: Identify the player(s) you truly believe have a shot to win the award; shop around for the best odds; and lock in those odds as soon as possible.

All three work in concert with one another, but the last one is particularly important when it comes to the names at the top of the odds board.

This is why Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes are not among our MVP recommendations for Super Bowl 57.

The two quarterbacks had solid value before the playoffs began. Mahomes was the +400 Super Bowl MVP favorite at BetMGM, while Hurts was the third choice at +650.

But that value has completely vanished, as both now sport near even-money odds.

If you were savvy enough to jump on one or both quarterbacks a month ago, congratulations on making a great wager. But given where the market is now, the best Super Bowl MVP value lies down the betting board — but not too far down.

» READ MORE: How to bet A.J. Brown in Super Bowl player props vs. Chiefs

Kelce and Brown have been slotted third and fourth, respectively, in odds to win Super Bowl MVP since the market reopened after NFL Conference Championship Game Weekend.

But both players have traveled a long way over the past month to get to these positions.

Looking specifically at BetMGM, Kelce opened at +2800, tied for the eighth-shortest odds at the sportsbook. The All-Pro tight end remained at +2800 prior to the wild card round (when the Chiefs had a bye); stretched to +3500 before the Divisional Playoffs; and dipped to +2500 before the AFC Championship Game.

Brown started out at +5000 at BetMGM and held there until prior to the NFC Championship Game, when he shrunk to +3500.

Now BetMGM has Kelce at +1100 and Brown at +1400 — still decent odds, but not as good as what FanDuel is offering.

» READ MORE: A breakdown of the top Super Bowl MVP candidates and why they could win the award

So what’s our justification for wagering on these two skilled pass catchers to win Super Bowl MVP?

Let’s start with Kelce. He not only has been the NFL’s best tight end for a solid half-decade, he’s the most dominant and unstoppable receiver in the game. Yes, more so than gifted wideouts like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Brown.

Kelce also has the best quarterback on the planet (Mahomes) throwing to him. And the chemistry between the two has been on full display in two playoff games, with Kelce leading all playoff performers in receptions (21), yards (172) and touchdown receptions (three).

There’s zero doubt that Kelce will get a ton of opportunities to strut his stuff on Sunday. Because he’s an absolute beast, because the Chiefs’ wide receiving corps is all kinds of banged up, and because Mahomes understands Kelce is the key to another championship.

The argument against betting on Kelce, of course, is this: If he has a big game, that means Mahomes is going to have a big game. And the quarterback who has a big game always wins MVP.

Fair point. And it’s quite possible that Mahomes passes for 280-plus yards and three touchdowns. But if Kelce gets nearly half those yards and at least two of those scores, he’s going to get the award.

Just look at what happened last year: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford went 26-for-40 for 283 yards with three touchdowns (and two interceptions). But Rams wideout Cooper Kupp caught eight of those 26 completions for 92 yards and two TDs and won MVP.

Kupp became the 10th wide receiver to win MVP in Super Bowl history (and fifth since 2003-04).

No tight end has ever won the award, but that isn’t a concern at all. Because as we’ve mentioned previously, Kelce is a receiver who just happens to play tight end.

» READ MORE: Jason and Travis Kelce won’t face each other on the field, but they will in at least one Super Bowl prop

We’ve been beating the same drum for nearly two weeks, so forgive us for doing our best John Bonham impersonation one last time: We expect big things from A.J. Brown on Super Bowl Sunday.

Are we privy to some inside info that led us to this conclusion? Nope.

Is Brown on some sort of hot streak that we’re looking to ride? Hardly. As we’ve noted multiple times, the fourth-year pro was a total non-factor in Philadelphia’s two postseason victories (seven total catches for 50 yards).

Rather, our faith in Brown comes down to an old-fashioned hunch — well, that and his immense talent.

Despite catching more than five passes just four times in 19 regular season and playoff contests, Brown has amassed nearly 1,550 receiving yards in his first season with the Eagles.

He has eight games with at least 95 receiving yards, including five with more than 100 yards and three with more than 150 yards. And he’s hauled in 11 touchdowns (all between Weeks 3-17).

Also, his big-play capabilities were on display all season, as he had catches of 37, 39, 40, 43, 48, 54, 68 and 78 yards.

As Philadelphia’s most explosive and productive playmaker not named Hurts, Brown obviously has the talent to take over the Super Bowl. And he’s facing an ideal opponent, as the Chiefs’ secondary has had issues with high-end No. 1 receivers this year.

Really, the only thing Brown needs to put up MVP numbers is something he hasn’t gotten yet in the playoffs: opportunities.

We’re betting those opportunities come Sunday in Arizona.

» READ MORE: Will Eagles, Chiefs pile up points in Arizona? Here’s what the trends say.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.