Bet on a tight match between Switzerland and Italy in the 2024 Euros knockout round

he knockout round of the 2024 European Football Championship gets under way on Saturday, with Switzerland taking on Italy at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Switzerland has yet to suffer a loss in the tournament, picking up five points (1-0-2) in Group A. Italy, meanwhile, finished with four points, thanks to a 98th-minute goal by Mattia Zaccagni, which salvaged a 1-1 draw against Croatia in the final match in the group stage.

If not for Zaccagni’s goal, Italy would have finished third in the group and been eliminated. Nonetheless, the Italians remain in the mix to repeat as European champions.

According to Opta Sports, Italy was one of the worst-performing teams in expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, ranking 19th out of the 24 teams with a 0.86 mark.

However, the Italians are seeing a decent amount of the ball, ranking ninth in possession (55%). That combination of possession and an uninspiring attack could lead to a stalemate in this Round of 16 fixture.

Odds via FanDuel

Switzerland almost pulled off a shocking upset against the competition hosts, Germany, when forward Dan Ndoye volleyed a centering pass from Remo Freuler in the 28th minute into the top-left corner inside the 6-yard box.

The Swiss held Germany goalless for 90 minutes until Niclas Füllkrug came off the substitute’s bench to score a redirected header in extra time. Although Germany peppered Switzerland with 18 shots, only three were on target.

The 1-1 draw result was certainly a surprise, given how formidable the Germans looked, scoring seven goals in their previous two matches.

Switzerland’s biggest strength is probably its backline, with Manchester City’s Manuel Akanji playing centrally in a 3-4-2-1 formation. On the right of Akanji is Newcastle’s Fabian Schär, while Torino’s Ricardo Rodríguez plays at left center back.

Should opposing teams get past the Swiss defenders, they’ll still have to deal with often-reliable Yann Sommer in goal. Sommer’s post-shot expected goals (3.2) is the eighth-best mark in the tournament.

Despite often dominating possession, the end product hasn’t quite been there for the Italians, who rank ninth in touches (66) inside the opponent’s penalty area but 14th in shot-creating actions (SCA) with 61.

The Italians simply haven’t had the dynamism. One of the more surprising stats is that they’re 23rd with just 30 dribbling attempts when taking on defenders.

While they can dominate the middle third of the pitch, there is a lack of ingenuity going forward. However, they have deployed this tactic before while still being successful as an international powerhouse.

For the Italians, it’s much more about controlling the game and avoiding mistakes while waiting for their best opportunity to strike.

At the 2020 Euros, Italy resembled a counter-attacking team. This time, the attack looks more disjointed as it struggles to find a striker to lead the line.

Federico Chiesa has yet to hit the target in any of his four shot attempts in the tournament. Manager Luciano Spalletti even dropped Chiesa to the bench for the match against Croatia.

Italy returned roughly 35% of its starting 11 from the previous Euros, while Spalletti brought to Germany with him 16 players with fewer than 10 senior appearances.

Striking the right balance between experience and expectation will likely be Italy’s most significant challenge to making another deep tournament run.

Even if they’re not at their best, a distinct aura still surrounds this Italian team, permeating from its historical success in Italian football.

Switzerland knows how dangerous Italy can be, having just seven wins in 60 head-to-head matches, with 24 draws that includes five ties in the last six meetings.

Switzerland has historically struggled to get the best of Italy, and I’d expect the Swiss to concede the bulk of possession on Saturday. Italy will likely have a five-man midfield, which could result in plenty of sideways passes without much of an attacking flair.

Based on the current odds, a draw has an implied probability of 33%, slightly lower than the odds of the Italian favorites (39%) winning the match. Considering the juice (-220) on under 2.5 goals, this shouldn’t be a high-scoring match.

Interestingly, while a draw is only +180 on the three-way moneyline, a correct score combination of 0-0 or 1-1 at FanDuel offers even greater odds at +210.

Thus, with a draw offering decent value in this fixture, bettors should target the correct score combination as part of their portfolio.

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