How to bet the marquee Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Dominic Thiem opening round Wilmbledon match

It’s been a rough stretch of late for Stefanos Tsitsipas and things don’t look like they’ll get any simpler in Round 1 at Wimbledon. Tsitsipas, who is the No. 5 seed for the third Grand Slam of 2023, is set to play former World No. 3 Dominic Thiem in his opening match at the Championships.

The Greek is still a big favorite at -420 on the moneyline, but there are plenty of signals that point to this being a potential banana skin for the World No. 5.

Tsitsipas looked to be putting together a memorable clay-court season in 2023, but everything came crashing down quickly. The 24-year-old from Athens was not competitive at all against Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. The loss to Alcaraz seems to have jolted Tsitsipas into a swoon, as he’s 1-3 with a win over Gregoire Barrere and losses to Yannick Hanfmann, Nicolas Jarry and Richard Gasquet during the grass season.

Disappointing results on the lawn are nothing new to Tsitsipas, though, as it’s clearly the Greek’s worst surface. According to Tennis Abstract, Tsitsipas is 17-15 overall in tour-level grass-court matches to date and he’s only won 51.1% of the sets he’s played on the lawn.

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Fortunately, Tsitsipas’ opponent in this match, 2020 U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem, also struggles on the lawn. Thiem is 15-17 on the grass in his career and lost to Alexander Zverev in his only match on grass in 2023.

Both Thiem and Tsitsipas have enjoyed plenty of success at other Grand Slams —Thiem has a win at the US Open and both have made it to the finals at both the Australian and French Open — but neither has made it past Round 4 at the Championships and both of those results came at least five years ago.

With neither player in great form and both seemingly uncomfortable on the grass, this match can go in a million different directions. That kind of volatility always is good news for the underdog and it makes a lot of sense to fade Tsitsipas in this spot.

Thiem has not been the same player since he was injured a couple of years ago, but he’s been fighting his way back into the mix and should be a tricky opponent for an out-of-form favorite.

The Bet: Dominic Thiem +330 (FanDuel)

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