Wimbledon prediction: Why we’re backing Matteo Berrettini to go on a big run at The Championships

You may not find better value in a grand slam outright market all season than with Matteo Berrettini at Wimbledon.

The Italian unquestionably rates as a top-five player on grass when he’s fully functional. He closed at +550 to win last year’s tournament prior to withdrawing due to COVID-19, and he was around +750 in 2021 prior to his memorable run to the final.

At the conclusion of play Wednesday, Berrettini stood at +12000 at FanDuel to capture his first title at The Championships. That’s a price you can’t overlook.

Berrettini has hardly played in 2023 due to injury. He was hurt in a shocking defeat to Andy Murray at the Australian Open, and in his comeback from a leg injury a couple of months later he looked significantly hampered by the ailment, which forced him to pull the plug on his season for the time being.

He was able to return to the tour in Stuttgart, but in winning just three games against Lorenzo Sonego he proved he simply wasn’t back to 100% quite yet.

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The defeat to Sonego was Berrettini’s fourth loss ever on grass since 2018. During that time, he’s won 31 matches and has fallen to only Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and David Goffin on the surface. When he’s on, he’s one of the three best players in the world on grass given he’s got one of the biggest serve and forehand combinations in the world. He’s also one of the biggest mental giants on tour as evidenced by the fact that he had a streak of 18 straight wins at grand slams over opponents other than Djokovic, which was snapped last year.

Berrettini’s first-round match at Wimbledon against Sonego has yet to reach a conclusion despite carrying across three days, but the former World No. 6 leads the encounter two sets to one. While he hasn’t looked quite at 100%, he’s looked very close and should be considered a sleeper at this tournament.

A win over Sonego would give Berrettini the confidence needed to make a run here, and while Carlos Alcaraz stands in his way of winning this quarter, the Italian holds a win over the World No. 1 in their only encounter at a grand slam.

Simply put, Berrettini has rarely lost on grass in his life and it will take something special to knock him out at Wimbledon considering he’s at least most of the way back into form. Alcaraz lacks experience on a grass court, as does Holger Rune, which could open the door for this long shot to win his quarter and make another charge toward a Wimbledon final.

At this price, Berrettini is hard to pass up.

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