Wimbledon prediction: How we’re betting Marton Fucsovics vs. Daniil Medvedev Saturday

Marton Fucsovics is turning into a problem on grass.

The Hungarian has been one of the best on tour this year when it comes to playing lawn tennis, winning seven of his eight matches on the surface. He won two matches to qualify for Stuttgart before knocking off three power players in Denis Shapovalov, Yibing Wu and Taylor Fritz. He would go on to lose an incredibly close encounter with Frances Tiafoe in the final, but that didn’t deter him from carrying that momentum over into Wimbledon.

Here at Wimbledon, Fucsovics has dropped just one set en route to his third round encounter with Daniil Medvedev. In doing so, he managed to defeat two more very competent grass-court players in Tallon Griekspoor and Marcos Giron, absorbing pace brilliantly from the baseline and absolutely dominating at the net. Fucsovics has won over 70% of his net points through two rounds, coming forward on a whopping 50 points in his win over Giron on Thursday and winning 36 of those.

As a former quarterfinalist here at Wimbledon and a player well familiar with Medvedev, the World No. 67 is a live underdog on Saturday.

Fucsovics took the most recent encounter between these two players, winning in four sets at the 2020 French Open. Though he did lose their previous two matches, they’ve been very narrow encounters. He broke Medvedev’s serve in each of those matches and took a set off him in their 2018 meeting in Monte Carlo.

The two have never met on grass, and their first encounter could be a tricky one for the Russian. Medvedev has looked slightly uncomfortable this year on grass with two defeats in six matches, and even in his straight-set wins here at Wimbledon has struggled in long rallies from the baseline. He’s been a far cry from the unstoppable brick wall he is on a hardcourt.

» READ MORE: Wimbledon prediction: Why we’re backing Matteo Berrettini to go on a big run at The Championships

Fucsovics is somewhat heavily favored to take a set here against the Russian at the price of -170, but there is still plenty of value to be found in this match. With the way he’s dominated on serve, there should be little between these two players. Against Giron, he managed to win 78% of points behind his first serve which is one of the higher numbers at the tournament and his two-match average is right in line with Medvedev’s at just under 80%.

I don’t anticipate many breaks of serve, and I’d actually favor the Hungarian in the rallies. Medvedev has won under 50% of points behind his second serve, while Fuscovics is at 52% through two rounds.

With that, the 5.5 games should be well within range for Fucvosics to cover.

The bet: Fucvosics +5.5 games.

Money line: Medvedev -450; Fucvosics +320

Games: Medvedev -5.5; Fucvosics +5.5

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.