Fade Texas’ college football futures bets ahead of the 2024 season

As the SEC prepares to welcome the Texas Longhorns this season, coach Steve Sarkisian has his football team in tremendous shape. Last season, Texas won the Big 12 for the first time since 2009 and enters the 2024 campaign with a championship-or-bust mentality after falling short in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Texas (+750) sits third in national championship odds on DraftKings behind only Georgia (+320) and Ohio State (+400). The Longhorns have a win total of over/under 10.5 and are priced at +320 to win the SEC, behind only Georgia (+200).

Is the Texas hype deserved? Or will the move to the SEC present too steep a challenge for the Longhorns to overcome?

A month out from the first game of the college football season, let’s take a look at the Texas roster and schedule to see if there’s a betting angle to take.

2024 Transfers and Returning Production (TARP): +4 offense, +4.5 defense, +8.5 net

Key additions: WR Isaiah Bond (Alabama), WR Matthew Golden (Houston), WR Silas Bolden (Oregon State), TE Amari Niblack (Alabama), ED Trey Moore (UTSA), DL Bill Norton (Arizona), DL Jermayne Lole (Louisville), S Andrew Mukuba (Clemson)

Key losses: RB Jonathon Brooks, WR Xavier Worthy, WR Adonai Mitchell, WR Jordan Whittington, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, OT Christian Jones, DL Byron Murphy, LB Jaylan Ford, CB Terrance Brooks, CB Ryan Watts, S Jerrin Thompson

Expect rampant Heisman buzz for Quinn Ewers this fall, as the Texas quarterback ranks third on the odds board at +1000. The supporting cast in Austin should help facilitate a strong campaign for Ewers, particularly with four of the five starters on the offensive line from last year returning. That includes left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., an expected top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Texas also has a loaded wide receiver room, which some are calling the best in the country. Transfers Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Silas Bolden will all compete for starting reps, while blue-chip sophomore Johntay Cook II is ready to break out.

The Longhorns also boast a talented backfield headlined by former five-star recruit CJ Baxter, who Nick Saban called the best running back he saw on any team last season.

After losing tackles Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat to the draft, Texas needed to bolster its defensive line. Graduate transfers Bill Norton and Jermayne Lole should help, and UTSA transfer Trey Moore should provide an injection of speed on the edge after he ranked third in the country with 14 sacks last season.

Anthony Hill Jr. ranked as the best linebacker in the 2023 recruiting class and should be primed for a big-time season. As a true freshman, he ranked second on the team with 67 tackles and five sacks last year. Malik Muhammad is a fellow sophomore poised for a breakout campaign as a full-time starter this fall.

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The Longhorns’ schedule ratchets up in degree of difficulty this season as they prepare for life in the SEC. Home games against Colorado State, UTSA and Louisiana-Monroe provide gimme opportunities to start the year, but a trip to the Big House in Ann Arbor feels like a coin-flip game against defending-champion Michigan.

The Longhorns did get some scheduling breaks. They avoid playing Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU – three of the top-five teams in SEC odds – while their matchup against Georgia will be played in Austin. An in-state road game against Texas A&M during rivalry week should be one of the most exciting matchups of the season.

If you’re betting on under 10.5 wins for Texas this fall, you have to drink some significant juice (-175 at BetMGM)l. Given the schedule, I’d certainly lean in that direction, but it’s difficult to recommend a wager at that number. I also don’t see much value in the national championship or SEC markets for the Longhorns.

Regarding the Heisman odds, Ewers is a tough sell for me, given Arch Manning will be breathing down his neck all season. Despite a loaded wide receiver room, Sarkisian will implement a balanced approach that leans on an excellent defense and one of the best running backs in the country.

I’m passing on Texas futures for the time being, but I’ll be looking to back Michigan as a home underdog for their showdown on Sept. 7.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.