Bet on a high scoring Game 4 between the Mavericks and Timberwolves of the WCF

Widely regarded as the best defensive team in the league heading into the playoffs, the Timberwolves are still searching for their first win in the Western Conference finals after a 116-107 loss to the Mavericks in Game 3.

During the regular season, they ranked first in opponent field goal percentage (45%) and defensive efficiency (108.4 points allowed per 100 possessions). However, in this series, Dallas is shooting 51% from the floor with an offensive rating of 118.5.

One of my keys to Dallas winning this series involved its ability to speed up the pace and challenge Minnesota to play a bit faster. The Mavericks’ ability to score efficiently also compels the Timberwolves to try to match Dallas shot for shot.

That explains why Minnesota is attempting 36.7 3-pointers per game in the conference finals, four more than their average attempts during the regular season. As a result, the narrative that this matchup would be a defensive stalemate needs to be revised because sportsbooks continue to post low totals in this series.

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Minnesota has to find a way to generate some scoring because it’s not getting a ton of production from its star players. Its two best players, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, have shot just 37-of-111 (33.3%) from the floor in this series.

Interestingly, Minnesota’s offensive rating of 114.3 is right around its regular-season mark of 114.3. The problem is Dallas has been so good that it’s almost forcing Minnesota to take bigger gambles and shoot more from the perimeter.

Minnesota generally uses an eight-man rotation, with center Naz Reid usually the first player off the bench. The Timberwolves often have either Towns or Reid on the court at one point or another, and both players have shown a propensity to shoot from the perimeter.

After all, both shot at least 41% from beyond the arc during the regular season. Reid, in particular, shot 7-of-9 from long distance in Game 2.

While you might argue that Minnesota has become somewhat trigger-happy from the perimeter, it did finish the season ranked third in 3-point shooting percentage (38.7%).

Based on those numbers, there’s more than enough sample size to support Minnesota’s reputation as a quality 3-point shooting team. It’s difficult to expect the Timberwolves to all of sudden abandon something that’s been a pillar of their success all season.

The Mavericks have done a tremendous job forcing the Timberwolves to play out of their comfort zone. Minnesota is averaging 43.3 points in the paint in this series compared to 50.8 during the regular season.

There’s almost a thought that Minnesota has to try to build a substantial lead heading into the fourth quarter because, with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks have two of the best closers in the game.

Even when the Mavericks trailed by 15 points in the second half of Game 2, they still clawed their way back to regain the lead two minutes into the fourth quarter.

During the fourth quarters in this series, Doncic and Irving are averaging 19.3 of their 60.4 points while shooting 18-of-32 (56.3%) from the floor. In comparison, Edwards and Towns are averaging 10.5 points on 7-of-21 (33.3%) shooting.

Those numbers also highlight that Doncic and Irving have been the more aggressive duo based on their shot attempts.

It certainly helps that the Mavericks’ two best players are also their most experienced. Irving has already won an NBA title, while Doncic is making his second conference final appearance.

There’s been a lot of talk about the Mavericks having the best backcourt in the history of the NBA. After giving it some thought, it’s an interesting claim because Irving is arguably the best ball-handler, while Doncic is an offensive savant.

Irving can easily get past his defender into the paint, while Doncic is a tremendous big-game player with an almost unguardable stepback 3-point shot. Both players are also highly adept at creating shots for their teammates.

Given their efficiency, it’s easy to understand why the Timberwolves are desperate to establish a lead heading into the fourth quarter. That pressure will not go away against Dallas as long as Doncic and Irving are on the court.

The total for this game opened at 209, and it’s up to 211 at some sportsbooks.

According to our Action Labs database, the total is 3-0 to the over in Mavericks’ games during this postseason when it’s been bet up after opening at 210 or fewer points.

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