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Bet on Belal Muhammad’s money line against Leon Edwards in UFC 304 bout

We can expect Muhammad to apply constant but controlled pressure to make Edwards much more uncomfortable than the last time these two fighters stepped into the octagon .

Belal Muhammad, right, punches Brazil's Gilbert Burns during the fourth round of a welterweight bout at the UFC 288 mixed martial arts event Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Newark, N.J. Muhammad won the fight. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Belal Muhammad, right, punches Brazil's Gilbert Burns during the fourth round of a welterweight bout at the UFC 288 mixed martial arts event Sunday, May 7, 2023, in Newark, N.J. Muhammad won the fight. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)Read moreFrank Franklin II / AP
    by Andrew Norton, Action Network
    Published 

The UFC 304 card features a handful of enthralling fights for MMA lovers, including Leon Edwards versus Belal Muhammad, Tom Aspinall versus Curtis Blaydes, and King Green (formerly Bobby Green) versus Paddy Pimblett.

We will be honing in on the welterweight title bout between Edwards and Muhammad, who are familiar foes after facing each other three years ago in a fight that ended prematurely.

Edwards is attempting to defend his welterweight belt for a third consecutive time after successfully beating Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.

Let’s dive deeper into the fight and make a prediction and pick on Saturday night’s UFC 304 Main Card.

UFC 304 Prediction

(Main Card, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV)

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad odds

  1. Money line: Edwards -250, Muhammad +205

  2. Total Rounds: Over 4.5 (-215), Under 4.5 (+165)

Odds via DraftKings

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad prediction

Edwards and Muhammad battled in 2021, when an incidental eye poke from Edwards resulted in a no-contest. Muhammad was in substantial pain and visibly upset that his massive opportunity ended prematurely.

Before the fight was called, Edwards was ahead as Muhammad was not unleashing his usual strategy of pressuring opponents with his seemingly endless tank and unique feints and punching combinations. Edwards landed a big head kick and some impressive counterstrikes, so Muhammad must approach this fight differently.

Muhammad has strung together a five-fight winning streak, including decisions against sixth-ranked Gilbert Burns, eighth-ranked Sean Brady and ninth-ranked Stephen Thompson.

Neither Edwards nor Muhammad have elite knockout power, with both logging only one KO or TKO in their past eight fights. This bout will likely go the distance, so it will be up to which fighter scores more points.

Despite a slow start for Muhammad in his last fight against Edwards, he has a huge statistical advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, which could be a kryptonite for a fighter like Edwards, who enjoys disengaging, picking his spots and controlling fights with a slower pace.

Furthermore, Muhammad knows now that fighting at a slower pace is much more advantageous to Edwards, so he should push the pace on him. In that environment, Muhammad has value at +220 at BetMGM (31.25% implied win probability).

We can expect Muhammad to apply constant but controlled pressure to make Edwards much more uncomfortable than the last time these two fighters stepped into the octagon together.

  1. Pick: Belal Muhammad money line (+220, BetMGM)

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.