Back Colombia to advance past Uruguay to clinch spot in the Copa América final

Uruguay will face Colombia on Wednesday night for a chance to advance to the Copa America final.

Both teams enter the match with identical records in the competition at 3-0-1. They also entered the tournament in tremendous form, as evidenced by their performance in World Cup qualifying matches.

Uruguay is second in the CONMEBOL table, 13 points behind Argentina, while Colombia is just one point behind in third place.

A string of 2-0 shutout victories over the current World Cup holders and Brazil resulted in La Celeste opening with the third-shortest odds (+500) to win Copa America. Colombia’s odds were as high as +1200 despite going unbeaten in 23 matches that included shutout victories on the road against Germany and Spain.

That unbeaten run has now reached 27 matches, yet bookmakers continue to overlook the Colombians.

Odds via bet365

There’s no denying the quality of this Uruguayan side led by manager Marcelo Bielsa.

Nicknamed “El Loco”, Biesla once exited his home holding a grenade when confronted by unruly supporters as a manager of Newell’s Old Boys following a 6-0 loss against San Lorenzo in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.

While some might say the Argentinian’s coaching style is more revolutionary than controversial, his brilliance is undeniable.

Biesla has never been afraid to shake things up. After taking the Uruguay job in May 2023, his first move was to leave the team’s two leading scorers, Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, off the team at the start of the World Cup qualifying.

Although Cavani has since retired from international football, Suarez is back in the national team and with Uruguay at Copa America.

If anything, Biesla is unpredictable by nature, and his unconventional coaching style is widely revered in the footballing world. He’s been able to get the best out of Darwin Nunez, who has often been wasteful in front of goal while playing his club football with Liverpool.

However, under Biesla, Nunez can’t seem to stop scoring goals, netting 10 in 11 games since the manager took the job.

Uruguay plays an intense, pressing style of futbol. It tries to win the ball back as quickly as possible and get it to attackers in dangerous areas up the pitch.

While that strategy generally works against most teams, Colombia might have the perfect player to counter Biesla’s tactics.

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Los Cafeteros could see more of the ball against Uruguay as their 57.5% possession ranks fourth at Copa America. James Rodriguez has primarily been responsible for helping Colombia dictate the tempo in its matches.

Manager Nestor Lorenzo practically overhauled his preferred 4-3-3 formation in favor of a 4-3-1-2 to accommodate Rodriguez in the midfield. Rodriguez now operates more as a traditional No. 10, dropping back to play in the space between the midfield and the front line.

“I needed to protect the midfield more and to get control of the ball,” Lorenzo told reporters when asked about the formation change. “And I find this model of play gives us that, and we’re still offensive.”

Rodriguez can affect the game in these small pockets by moving the ball side to side with piercing passes that probe questions about the opposition’s defense.

Rodriguez is tied for third in the tournament with progressive passes (25) into the final third while leading in assists with five.

The 32-year-old has turned back the clock to a decade ago when he was the Golden Boot winner at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Rodriguez might need to drop a bit deeper to be an outlet for Colombia to handle Uruguay’s press.

Los Cafeteros was extremely undervalued heading into this tournament, so I backed them outright to win the competition.

Colombia’s 1.81 expected-goal mark is even better than Uruguay’s (1.58), yet it is a slight underdog in this fixture.

While Bielsa deserves credit for turning Uruguay around, Colombia seems perfectly content to remain under the radar. Having an unbeaten run of 27 matches is no small feat, especially considering Colombia beat a Spanish side that will play for a title on Sunday in the Euros.

The last three head-to-head matches between these semifinalists resulted in three draws and Colombia advancing in one after penalties.

These teams are much closer than the odds suggest, making Colombia a value play at +100 to advance to the finals.

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