Bet on Uruguay to cover goal line against USMNT on Monday night’s Copa Amèrica match

The United States’ goal of advancing out of the group stage became much tougher following their 2-1 loss to Panama.

Things got off to a rough start for the Yanks when forward Tim Weah received a red card in the 18th minute for violent conduct after striking Panama’s Roderick Miller in the head.

Nonetheless, the U.S. still managed to get on the scoresheet first in the 22nd minute after Folarin Balogun’s thunderous shot from just inside the penalty area.

Panama leveled the match four minutes later on a well-placed left-footed strike from César Blackman. Then, in the 83rd minute, José Fajardo scored the game-winner on a right-footed volley inside the box.

The U.S. now faces group-leader Uruguay to keep its tournament hopes alive. La Celeste leads the competition with eight goals through only two games while conceding just once.

Thus, even if Uruguay opts to rest its starters after already securing six points, there’s no guarantee the United States can come away with a much-needed victory in this fixture.

Odds via DraftKings

Perhaps what’s most frustrating part about Weah’s actions is that he should’ve been well aware of the Panamanian tactics, considering they often use some gamesmanship to bait opponents into poor decisions.

Weah not only missed the rest of the contest, but he’ll now have to serve a two-match ban. The difficult decision of replacing Weah now falls to U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter.

Berhalter can opt to bring Haji Wright into the frontline while positioning the Coventry City man on the left, which would move Christian Pulisic to the right flank. Both players have plenty of experience playing in those positions for their club teams.

Another option would be for Gio Reyna to replace Weah on the right. Although Reyna can potentially play as a forward, Berhalter has used him in the midfield.

Despite showing plenty of promise, Reyna’s career has somewhat stalled, and he failed to impress while on loan to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League. There’s also some thought that Reyna’s parent club, Borussia Dortmund, might look to sell him this summer.

At a time when the U.S. desperately needs goals to advance in the tournament, it’ll have to overcome shuffling its lineup against a tough Uruguayan side.

Uruguay can’t seem to stop scoring, and its tally of eight goals is particularly remarkable given its 4.4 expected goals (xG) mark. While those numbers point to some regression, it might not occur until it faces better competition.

The possession battle is one of the biggest challenges the U.S. will face against Uruguay. La Celeste ranks fourth at Copa America in possession with 60.4% of the ball. And when Uruguay does lose the ball, it fights tirelessly to regain possession.

Head coach Marcelo Bielsa employs a very aggressive pressing style, using his entire team when the opponent has the ball. Bielsa wants his team to win the ball back immediately, especially near the opponent’s goal. These tactics are the same regardless of the players he decides to field on the pitch.

Thus, the thought that the U.S. will get a break if Biesla rotates his squad remains wishful thinking at best.

The U.S. technically doesn’t need a win against Uruguay to advance. Ultimately, a draw would be enough if Panama and Bolivia also finished tied in their match because the U.S. is ahead of Panama on goal differential.

A U.S. loss and Bolivia win could also allow the Americans to advance, but then other tiebreakers would have to be considered.

While the most surefire way to guarantee advancement is to defeat Uruguay, that’s easier said than done.

The most challenging thing in football is scoring goals, and the United States has yet to show it can produce clear-cut chances against quality competition on the international stage.

Since it’s uncertain whether Uruguay will make changes to its starting 11, the best bet would be to back La Celeste on the +0.5 goal line at -190.

Based on my modeling, Uruguay is likely to win the match or get a draw. Thus, while I’m fully aware of the added juice on the goal line, there’s still value at the current price.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.