World Cup prediction: Will the U.S. open with a win vs. Wales?

Monday’s match between the United States and Wales may not be a must-win for either side, but it is fair to suggest it is a must-not-lose given the way that Group B sets up. England is the massive favorite to top the group, while oddsmakers are having a tough time separating the USMNT and Wales. Iran has the longest odds to advance.

The stats also back up this notion. Over the last six World Cups, 84% of teams that won their first match advanced to the Round of 16 and 59% of teams that drew their opener made it through. Only 11% of teams that lost their curtain-raiser made it to the elimination rounds.

With all of this context floating around, both the Americans and the Welsh will know just how important it is to get out of Al Rayyan Stadium with at least a point.

Will that lead to a more conservative approach from the Yanks and Dragons on Monday?

USA to win to nil (+260, Caesars)

During this Golden Generation of Welsh football, the plan has remained consistent. Wales sit deep in a well-organized defensive posture and work their socks off to hang around in games long enough to get a goal through a set piece or a moment of magic from Gareth Bale.

This strategy saw the Dragons make a miracle run to the semi-finals in Euro 2016, make it to the knock-out stages of Euro 2020 and qualify for their first World Cup since 1958.

This robust, cohesive style of play makes Wales a tough team to beat as a favorite, but it also makes them an unappealing bet unless they’re being offered at big prices (like they will against England). That’s because the way Wales plays leaves very little margin for error.

One mistake or a moment of brilliance from their opposition and the next thing you know the Dragons are behind and are forced to come out of their defensive shell. That is not what they want to do.

» READ MORE: U.S. World Cup schedule analysis: Why the opening game vs. Wales is nearly a must-win

The Americans won’t be a possession-dominant team in matches against more dangerous opposition, but they should have a lot of the ball against Wales, who will look to make it difficult for the Americans to play through the lines and break them down.

That shouldn’t be a huge issue for the Yanks. Even though the Americans don’t have an elite playmaker who can break the lines with a pass, this roster has more than enough quality in attack to create scoring chances against an outfit that will just park the big red bus.

Perhaps more importantly, the USMNT shouldn’t be too bothered by the Welsh counterattack. Since the Americans aren’t really a swashbuckling side that will send everyone forward and leave space behind them, it should be pretty difficult for Wales to send Bale, Aaron Ramsey or Daniel James chasing after balls behind the US backline.

» READ MORE: World Cup picks: England vs. Iran; Senegal vs. Netherlands

The Americans aren’t a great team at defending in transition, but Wales aren’t going to be a team that takes advantage of that weakness.

Because of the stakes and the way the group sets up, it does feel like this match could be a bit stodgy and take a while to get going. Still, the Americans should fancy their chances against a Welsh team that is full of spirit but lacking in talent.

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