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The USMNT winning in a shutout against Bolivia among best bets in their opening game of Copa América

We like the Americans to finish the game with the most on-target shot attempts on Sunday.

Christian Pulisic of United States celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the international friendly match between Germany and United States at Pratt & Whitney Stadium on October 14, 2023 in East Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
Christian Pulisic of United States celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the international friendly match between Germany and United States at Pratt & Whitney Stadium on October 14, 2023 in East Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)Read moreAlex Grimm / Getty Images

Copa América returns to the United States for the second time in the 108-year history of the oldest tournament in international football.

Despite being the hosts, the Americans had to qualify for the tournament as one of the six teams from the CONCACAF region. They did so with a 4-2 aggregate win over Trinidad and Tobago in the two-leg quarterfinal stage of the Nations League.

On Sunday, the U.S. will play its first game of the tournament against Bolivia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Unsurprisingly, the Americans are heavy favorites, with odds as high as -650 on the three-way moneyline.

As a result, we’ll need to get a bit creative to find a wager that offers some value in this matchup.

USA vs. Bolivia odds

  1. Money line: USA -650, Bolivia +1600, Draw +600

  2. Total: Over 2.5 goals (-154), Under 2.5 goals (+126)

Odds via FanDuel

USA outlook

Copa América is an excellent opportunity for the Stars and Stripes to test themselves internationally. As one of the 2026 World Cup hosts, the United States won’t have to go through the CONCACAF qualifying process.

Thus, the U.S. desperately needs to use these competitive games as part of its preparation, and facing Bolivia is a great way to ease itself into the tournament.

The Americans will likely set up in a 4-3-3 formation to create space on the flanks in order to get their wingbacks forward.

Antonee Robinson, a key player on the left side of the pitch, is a willing runner who’s always looking to get involved in the attack. His ability to link up with Christian Pulisic on the wing will likely be where the U.S. poses its greatest threat.

Bolivia has one of the youngest rosters at Copa América, and you can be sure team USA will try to exploit the inexperience.

» READ MORE: A low scoring USMNT-Bolivia game is among best bets for this weekend’s Copa América action

Bolivia outlook

There’s not much deception in how manager Antonio Carlos Zago will line up his team. The native Brazillian prefers a 4-4-1-1 formation for a side that doesn’t offer much going forward in attack.

The Bolivians have struggled in their last three tournaments, losing all 10 matches while scoring just six goals and allowing 26. This poor form is also reflected in their recent friendlies in preparation for Copa América, where they lost all three matches and were outscored 7-1.

And in their recent friendlies in preparation for Copa América, they lost all three matches and were outscored 7-1.

Zago only has five matches under his belt while in charge of Bolivia, which suggests he’s still in the nascent stage of learning about his squad. However, only five players play their club football outside Bolivia, so the team isn’t rich with talent.

This tournament is an opportunity for Zago to find his best 11 as he continues to tinker with his lineups and formations.

With Zago already stating that Bolivia’s primary goal is to qualify for the World Cup, his experimentation could prove costly for La Verde at Copa America.

USA vs. Bolivia pick

The results haven’t been good for Bolivia when it has to play away from home. According to FootyStats, La Verde’s 1.98 goals expected against on the road is the worst of any team in the South American Football Confederation (CONMEBOL).

The United States should be able to exploit Bolivia’s defensive frailty. On the other end of the pitch, Bolivia averaged just 4.7 touches inside its opponent’s box in its last six matches, so its attacking quality is far from robust.

Nonetheless, laying -650 for the Yanks to win is too rich of a price. Instead of betting on the United States to win outright, a more strategic approach would be to target a same-game parlay.

This would involve backing the U.S. to win without conceding a goal (-150), in addition to the hosts having the most shots on target (-450).

The combination would reduce our odds to -115, which is much more of a reasonable stake.

  1. Best bet: SGP (-115) – U.S. win to nil | U.S. to have most shots on target

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