Bet on Penn State as home underdog against Wisconsin in Big Ten matchup Tuesday night

Wisconsin’s having a dream season.

The Badgers are now 13-3 on the year and 5-0 in Big Ten play. They have no bad losses, four Quad 1 wins, and rank No. 15 in the latest AP Poll.

It should be smooth sailing for the Badgers on Tuesday against a reeling Penn State team. The Nittany Lions can’t get off the mat in Mike Rhoades’ first season, now having lost nine of 13 following a 4-0 non-conference start.

But I think the Badgers are uber-overvalued, and I feel good about catching seven points with a Big Ten home team.

(Via FanDuel)

(9 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)

The key to stopping Wisconsin is playing good post defense, as the Badgers funnel their entire offense through Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl in the post.

I don’t think the Nittany Lions will stop that.

The Lions allow .93 post-up PPP (22nd percentile) and 37 paint points per game (17th percentile). Qudus Wahab is a generally good rim protector (5.5% block rate) but struggles as a general post-defender (1.09 PPP allowed, 17th percentile).

Still, I think the Lions can score here.

Rhoades’ offense is ball-screen heavy, as the Lions run perimeter pick-and-roll sets as much as any team nationally. Superstar point guard Ace Baldwin Jr. usually spearheads these sets, although sophomore Kanye Clary has taken huge strides.

On paper, Greg Gard’s pack-line defense should be good against these sets. Yet their ball-screen defensive metrics aren’t elite, as they rank below average against ball handlers (.79 PPP allowed, 40th percentile) and way below average against roll men (1.2 PPP allowed, 11th percentile).

Even better, the Lions use these on-ball screens to generate and exploit isolation mismatches, with, again, Clary and Baldwin leading the pack. While the Badgers are a good team defense, the individual defenders struggle on islands, as the team ranks 236th nationally in isolation PPP allowed (.86).

Finally, the Nittany Lions will shoot, ranking top 90 nationally in 3-point rate.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s defense is pretty compact, so the Badgers rank 318th in Open 3 Rate allowed.

So, while the Badgers should score at their usual clip, I think the Lions can keep pace at home in a solid schematic matchup.

Considering I expect both teams to score, we could target the Over, but I think the number is too high at 147.

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Instead, I’ll take the Lions and the points. They can keep pace. But more importantly, the Badgers are juiced in the market.

They’ve won six straight and 12 of the past 13, so they’re due for a loss. They’re overperforming offensively, especially on the interior – ShotQuality projects Wisconsin should be shooting about 7% worse in the mid-range and 11% worse in the paint based on the “quality” of attempts taken.

Meanwhile, the site projects the Lions should be shooting about 5% better from 3. I’d love to see that positive regression come on Tuesday against a Badger team that allows plenty of open looks.

Based on the looming regression, ShotQuality’s model projects the Badgers as only three-point road favorites over Penn State.

I agree.

Plus, I like fading ranked teams heading on the road, as those squads in this situation are only 31-49 ATS this year.

Moreover, Big Ten home teams are money ATS, recording a 589-492-22 record since 2015, a 54% clip that has generated a 5% ROI for bettors.

So, I’ll take the Lions, who shouldn’t get many stops but should score enough to keep this game within two possessions.

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