The argument against White Sox slugger Luis Robert Jr. is just as strong as the argument for him

A good rule of thumb when evaluating the wisdom of a trade:

It’s OK to pay a Juan Soto or Mookie Betts price, as long as you are getting Juan Soto or Mookie Betts. The general managers that get themselves into trouble are the ones who trade can’t-miss prospects for can-miss veterans. Dave Dombrowski can’t afford to take that kind of risk. Which means he probably cannot afford Luis Robert Jr.

Robert, a slick-fielding slugger and a center fielder from the Chicago White Sox, is a very good player. There’s a very good reason he is at the top of the Christmas-in-July wish lists that Phillies fans are sending to Jolly Old Saint Dave. Rare is the trade deadline when a team with a highly specific need at a premium defensive position actually has an opportunity to trade for such a player. Robert is that player, the one guy on this year’s trade market who would significantly move the needle for the Phillies offense.

Robert is much more than the right-handed bat you’ve read so much about Dombrowski desiring at this year’s trade deadline. He is no complement. He is the missing piece, within the context of this Phillies lineup. All season, the Phillies have wrestled with how to balance offense and defense in center field. Can they really afford to have Johan Rojas’ glove off the field? Can they really afford to have his bat in the lineup? If only Rojas had an .800+ OPS and 30-homer power to go with his ridiculous range. Well, then he’d be Robert.

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The defense is the key with Robert. Scouting opinions vary on just how good he is. The numbers are a mixed bag. Statcast had him as the second-best enter fielder in the majors in the advanced metric Fielding Run Value. He was closer to middle-of-the-pack in 2022. Same goes for Outs Above Average.

Whatever his specific grade, Robert is, by all accounts, a viable major league center fielder who brings positive value in the field to go with his prodigious bat at the plate. Since 2022, only seven right-handed hitters have more home runs than his 61: Aaron Judge (133, lol), Mookie Betts (84), Adolis García (83), Giancarlo Stanton (73), Teoscar Hernández (70), Julio Rodriguez (70), and Mike Trout (68). Imagine putting that level of slugger in place of Rojas’ .565 OPS and three home runs in center field. Robert would not need to be Soto or Betts — the different between him Rojas would make him look like it.

But, again, he isn’t Soto or Betts. Which means the wisdom of trading for Robert will lie in the price. Which almost certainly means the price will be too high.

Look, there are only two reasons the White Sox would trade Robert. Both of them are reasons why other teams shouldn’t trade for him.

Robert does not fit the typical profile of a player on the move at the trade deadline. Sure, the White Sox stink. But Robert is young enough to be a building block player. He is what you hope to find when you enter a rebuild. At 26 years old, he is just entering his prime. He plays a premium defensive position at (reputedly) a high level. He is signed to an overwhelmingly team-friendly contract that keeps him under club control through 2027. He counts as just $8.5 million against the luxury tax threshold this year and next year with $20 million team options in 2026 and 27. That’s four years and $57 million for his 26-through-29-year-old seasons. The Phillies just paid Whit Merrifield $8.5 million for one season.

So, why would they trade him? Well, because he is not priceless. As good as he is, as nice as he would look in a lot of contending lineups, he isn’t a generational, centerpiece talent like Soto or Betts (or Bryce Harper or Judge, etc.). That is the only level of talent where there is no fair trade. If somebody wants to pay a glass case price for something on your shelf, you might as well listen.

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The two big problems with Robert’s game are ones that usually don’t improve with time. He strikes out a lot, and he does not walk. In fact, his profile is essentially Nick Castellanos, except with more strikeouts and fewer walks. Since his first full big league season in 2021, Robert has the eighth-lowest walk-to-strikeout ratio among right-handed hitters (0.22). Castellanos has the 19th-lowest at 0.25.

There are some tantalizing reasons to think that Robert’s best days may lie ahead of him in a different situation. In high leverage situations, his walk rate spikes and his strikeout rate drops. His eight high leverage home runs since 2022 rank fifth among all big league hitters from either side of the plate. His .587 slugging percentage ranks third behind Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, just ahead of Aaron Judge. This is the part where I talk myself back into Robert.

He has been stuck in an abysmal situation the last couple of years in Chicago. When the White Sox won 93 games in 2021, Robert hit .338/.378/.567 with 13 home runs in 296 plate appearances. In seven postseason games, he has hit .393/.452/.500.

Stick him in a winning atmosphere with a great clubhouse and something to play for? It’s an intriguing thought.

But, then, there are the injuries. A hip injury this season. A wrist injury in 2022. He has logged more than 500 plate appearances once. He is not on pace to do it this year.

Long story short, the risk is equal to the upside. And the current actuality is something less than superstar. The White Sox are in a position where they can shoot for the moon. If they don’t trade him now, they can do it in the offseason. Their goal should be something like the Nationals landed for Soto two years ago: C.J. Abrams, who has turned out to be a hitter equal or better to Robert at a position with equal or higher importance; Mackenzie Gore, a decent back-of-the-rotation option with front-of-the-rotation upside; James Wood, one of the top prospects in the majors, and more.

Aidan Miller should be untouchable. Without him, I’m not sure the Phillies have a package they could offer that rises to the level the White Sox should be seeking. Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, and a third piece? Does that really get it done?

The guiding principle: if you have to think twice, say no. Pour your resources into another high-leverage arm. Maybe two. Look for a marginal offensive upgrade in center — Daulton Varsho? Add a right-handed counterpart for Brandon Marsh in left. Save your powder for a day when a no-doubt-about-it difference-maker become available.