Howie Roseman makes a smart bet on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as training camp looms

“I look at a hundred deals a day. I pick one.” — Gordon Gekko, “Wall Street,” 1987.

It’s as if Howie Roseman is channeling the most delicious villain in film history. Lately, he’s the Gordon Gekko of the NFL. Nobody reads the market like Howie.

Training camp starts Tuesday, and amid a flurry of moves that constituted an offseason overhaul — trading for receiver A.J. Brown, drafting defensive tackle Jordan Davis, signing edge rusher Haason Reddick — the move Howie never made was the smartest move of all.

He didn’t replace the quarterback.

The most important decision the Eagles’ general manager had to make this offseason concerned Jalen Hurts. Should he replace Jalen? Should he insure against Jalen’s failure? Should he weaponize Jalen?

The first option seemed the best option, with possible acquisitions like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and even Kyler Murray, but when the chips finally fell — the Cardinals extended Murray with a ridiculous deal on Thursday — it became evident that the market would have made that decision unwise.

The second option didn’t go well when Carson Wentz wilted in the diminutive shadow of Hurts in 2020. As such, it didn’t make much sense to acquire a big-name backup to cast a shadow over a third-year project quarterback with 20 largely uninspiring starts to his name. It will be a lot easier for Matt Ryan to function in Indianapolis with Eagles hero Nick Foles on the roster than it would have been for Hurts to function with him in Philly, considering Hurts has to pass Foles’ statue every time he goes to work at Lincoln Financial Field.

Besides, the Eagles already have Gardner Minshew.

Instead, Roseman chose Door No. 3. He weaponized Hurts. He told us he would as soon as last season ended ... sort of.

“We’ve got to do whatever we can to continue to help him develop. And how do we do that? By surrounding him with really good players. ... Players continue to grow.”

Roseman also left doors wide open to replace Hurts if the price was right, but it never was. Good on Howie.

That’s because the question always remained: To what degree can Hurts grow?

That’s what fueled speculation as far back as the 2021 offseason that the Eagles would pursue perpetually the disgruntled MVP Rodgers, and it’s what fueled the Eagles’ interest in Watson since 2021, and it’s what fueled the Eagles’ interest in Wilson as the 2022 season unfolded, and it’s what made Murray a possibility, no matter how remote, this past spring.

None of those options made sense, with their price tags and baggage. Howie knew that, and acted accordingly. Or rather, he didn’t act.

Now, Hurts will have the best offensive line in the NFL. He will have two excellent wide receivers. He will have two dynamic running backs. His tight end will be the best skilled player on the roster. He will watch a defense that is more stout on the line, more talented at linebacker, and both better and deeper in the secondary.

Many of those realities would have been impossible had Roseman gone all-in on a superstar quarterback.

If Rodgers had decided to move on, he would have been the best player — he’s the reigning MVP, having won his fourth at the age of 38 — but he’d also have been the most expensive option over the next three seasons, at the end of which he would be 40. A league source said in January that A-Rod would cost the Eagles at least three first-round picks and two second or third rounders in the 2022 and 2023 drafts.

That would have just gotten him onto the roster. The Eagles would have then had to convince him to stay on it; remember, his most recent attention-grab involved him hinting at retirement. The Packers gave him a three-year, $150.8 million deal, completely guaranteed.

So, $150 million plus five premium picks? For a science-denier who’s 2-3 in his last three playoff runs? Too much.

Watching Wilson will be more difficult. He landed in Denver for a first-rounder, two seconds, a fifth, and three players — but not because the Eagles weren’t willing to make a viable offer. They made a viable offer. He landed in Colorado because he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause to play in Philly, an Eagles source confirmed last month.

Which will forever make Wilson an enemy of the city.

It gets worse.

Wilson once had the biggest deal in NFL history, but he’ll be a bargain at $24 million in 2022. Considering the 2022 market, Wilson, at 34, will require a $250 million contract extension before he plays in 2023, and he’ll probably be 39 at the end of that deal. Even for a player of his ilk ... ouch. Still, getting four years of prime Russell Wilson would be well worth the pain of his inevitable decline.

Watching Watson in Cleveland won’t be quite as difficult. He’s facing suspension for his alleged sexual misconduct with 24 massage therapists while he was the quarterback in Houston, the lurid details of which left the Eagles shocked and disgusted after they sent an investigator to Texas to determine if they should go hard after Watson.

However, they weren’t so disgusted that they didn’t continue their pursuit. It wasn’t until they realized that Watson also wanted $230 million in guaranteed money to waive his no-trade clause that they were out, according to a league source. Watson initially refused to waive the clause to go to Cleveland before the Browns bought his loyalty. Will he be worth it? Possibly.

With due respect to Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert, only Patrick Mahomes compares to Watson in terms of pure ability and polish.

Then again, only Lawrence Taylor compares to Watson in terms of “Ick” factor. Bullet dodged.

Acquiring Murray, “Ick” aside, would have been an even bigger mistake. It would have required two first-round picks, according to a league source. It would have required Hurts, too. It also would have required the new five-year, $230.5 million extension. That’s $500,000 more than Watson’s deal, which is petty posturing, since only $160 million of Murray’s money is guaranteed.

Murray isn’t worth two firsts and a starter, much less $46 million a year on top of that. There’s chatter that Murray’s deal will mean a windfall for Hurts, but Hurts will never be worth that.

Murray’s best comparison is Wilson. Wilson’s QBR, which seeks to compute a quarterback’s all-around play, was never lower than 67.2 in his first three seasons. Murray’s peaked at 61.9 in 2020, his second year. Hurts was at 48.5 last season, his first as a full-time starter.

We’re talking about three very different levels of ability.

Still, as things stand, if Hurts improves by even 25%, then the Eagles can win a playoff game or two. Even if Hurts is the same player, the return of center Jason Kelce to the roster, the presence of running backs Miles Sanders (on a contract year) and Kenneth Gainwell, the continued ascension of tight end Dallas Goedert, and the development of first-round receiver DeVonta Smith all give Hurts the means to easily win the NFC East.

Finally, Roseman still has two first rounders in the 2023 draft. That draft will feature at least four first-round quarterbacks. Besides, by the end of this season, who knows which quarterbacks will be clamoring to get traded?

Every general manager’s first priority is to build a consistent winner. When it came to changing quarterbacks, Roseman either was unwilling, unable, or both.

That worked out just fine.

As he knew it would.