Three thoughts on the Phillies’ free-agent and trade markets, and the hunt for a few good arms

Thinking out loud about the Phillies offseason ...

Let’s not forget why the Phillies started 25-32. Let’s not forget why they lost Games 3 and 4 in the NLCS.

The easiest drum to beat in baseball is the one that says, “More pitching.” Nevertheless, here we go.

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More pitching!

The writing sure felt like it was on the wall in the aftermath of Game 7. Dave Dombrowski noted in his year-end press conference that the Phillies had tried to sign Nola to an extension before the season. Was that a calculated move? Who knows. But the Phillies president has been through enough contract negotiations to understand the state of play. The team had a number. The player had a number. The gap between those two numbers usually doesn’t shrink once a player hits the open market. It goes in the opposite direction.

With Nola, the market forces could be particularly acute. His underlying metrics suggest a pitcher who presents the Phillies with some unique risks relative to the market at large. His home run rate skyrocketed to 4.0% in 2023, up from a career average of 2.7%. You could write that off as a blip, except it was preceded by a steady decline in his ground ball rate: from 1.05 grounders per fly ball in his first five seasons to 0.96 in 2020 to 0.74 over his last three seasons. He is a fly ball pitcher now, and you are asking a lot when you ask a pitcher like that to age gracefully while making half of his starts at Citizens Bank Park.

» READ MORE: The numbers say the Phillies shouldn’t invest big money in Aaron Nola. But do they have a choice?

True, Nola pitched much better at home this season, with a 3.29 ERA and 12 home runs allowed in 87⅔ innings there compared with a 5.43 ERA and 20 home runs in 106 innings away from Citizens Bank Park. Point is, the Phillies probably have to price more risk into their offer than a team that plays in more hospitable environs.

Consider the Mets, who play in one of the more extreme pitchers’ parks in the majors. From 2021-23, Nola allowed just two runs in his 36 innings at Citi Field, compared with 35 in 266 innings at Citizens Bank Park.

On the other hand, look at a guy like Sonny Gray. The 34-year-old free agent is coming off a season in which he allowed a league-low 0.4 home runs per nine innings. Over the last five seasons, he has allowed just 59 home runs in 670⅓ innings. Nola has allowed 77 in 579⅓ innings since 2021.

Gray, who has been mentioned as a potential Phillies target, is three years older than Nola and has been far less durable throughout his career. That’s true of most pitchers who end up in free agency. It’s a tough place to put a lot of expensive eggs in the same basket. Just look at last year’s crop of signings: Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón both spent most of the year hurt. Jameson Taillon regressed. Zach Eflin far outperformed Taijuan Walker. Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Chris Bassitt worked out.

Good luck.

Whatever the Phillies do on the starting pitching front, they’d be wise to consider some significant investments in the bullpen. If I had to guess, they won’t end up going in that direction. Sign a starter like Gray, sign a right-handed bat like Tommy Pham, and try to hit big on a guy like Jeff Hoffman. Dombrowski said in his press conference that he doesn’t think the Phillies need a shutdown-level closer. And he’s right. Plus, those guys are expensive and rare.

But let’s not forget why the Phillies lost the NLCS. Their closer took the loss in back-to-back games.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ tendency to chase bad pitches led to their NLCS collapse. Do they need to change the mix?

The Phillies don’t necessarily need a closer. They need the kind of sixth-to-eighth-inning arms that allow José Alvarado to function as more of a traditional closer. Really, they need to find another Matt Strahm, and another guy whom they hoped Gregory Soto would be.

The bullpen is in better shape now than it was a year ago. Hoffman was a revelation. Orion Kerkering now has some big game experience to go with his wicked stuff. Strahm will be back. So will Alvarado, Soto, and Seranthony Domínguez. That’s a great starting point. But we’ve seen how injuries and the year-to-year volatility of relievers can thin things out in a hurry. The best way to replace Nola would be to ease the pressure on whatever starter they end up signing.

Look at the Braves. They’ve already made couple of shrewd signings to retain relievers Joe Jiménez and Pierce Johnson at a combined price tag of $40.25 million over eight years. That’s the kind of package I’m thinking.

Problem is, the open market doesn’t offer a ton of options. Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson? Reynaldo López?

Again, good luck.

Corbin Burnes is a pitcher who has been mentioned as a potential Phillies trade target. But the Brewers’ rotation already took a big hit when it lost Brandon Woodruff to shoulder surgery. Are they really willing to wave the white flag by trading their other ace?

It’s much easier to find high-leverage bullpen arms on the trade market than it is to find front-line starters. Again, look at the Braves. Last December, they acquired Jimenez from the Tigers for a prospect (Justyn-Henry Milloy, who was ranked No. 6 in the organization at the time).

» READ MORE: What is the Phillies’ backup plan if Aaron Nola leaves? Here are a few trade options.

The Phillies don’t have the organizational depth that the Braves have, which is why they ended up trading for Soto instead of a higher-pedigree arm like Jimenez. But they do have Johan Rojas, whose value as an elite defensive center fielder is mitigated by both his lack of functional power and the presence of Brandon Marsh, a very good defender in his own right. Their top position prospect (Justin Crawford) also happens to play center field. Something needs to give there.