Phillies’ 2023 rotation will depend on attrition (Wheeler/Nola), an addition (Painter), and a Suárez breakout

It’s hard to add a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation piece for a reasonable price. We saw that at the trade deadline this past August, when the Phillies were unable to make a serious play for a starting pitcher who might have made a difference in the postseason. We saw that on the free-agent market last offseason, when Noah Syndergaard signed a $21 million contract for one season with the Angels.

While Dave Dombrowski has sent some signals that the Phillies will be players in the blue-chip shortstop market this offseason, his most complicated task will be finding a way to add another reliable arm to his rotation. The top of the free-agent market is fraught with risk, but there are a variety of potential upgrades available beyond Carlos Rodón, Justin Verlander, and Jacob deGrom. Among the names to know: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), José Quintana (Cardinals), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), and Martin Pérez (Rangers).

That said, the free-agent market is an inherently uncertain place. Complicating matters is the uncertainty that currently exists in-house. A lot of what the Phillies decide to do this offseason will depend on how they evaluate three big questions that loom over the rotation.

You never know how a roster is going to react to a long postseason run. From a purely physical standpoint, it can take a huge toll that causes problems the next season. We saw that with Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge in 2009. Part of it is the additional workload. Part of it is the stressful nature of that workload: adrenaline and cortisol have a way of overriding the body’s self-preservation mechanisms. The biggest part of it might be the loss of a month of rest.

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I don’t think it’s fair to say that Nola and Wheeler will enter 2023 as question marks. But you also can’t ignore the fact that they combined to allow 20 earned runs in 23⅔ innings in their last five starts of the postseason. Wheeler’s year began with a bout of shoulder soreness that sidelined him for the Grapefruit League schedule and bumped back his first regular-season start. He then battled forearm tendinitis that shut him down for a few weeks in August and September. After three really good postseason starts, fatigue robbed him of his velocity in Game 2 of the World Series. The Phillies were concerned enough that they passed on an opportunity to give him the start in Game 5. In Game 6, he looked like his usual self for a few innings but lost his command in the sixth and got the quick hook from Rob Thomson. Last year, Wheeler was coming off a career-high 213⅓ innings. He followed that up with 188⅔ innings in 2022. That’s the most he has thrown in any two-year stretch of his career.

Meanwhile, Nola will enter 2023 coming off a marathon season in which he logged 230⅔ innings between the regular season and postseason. That’s 18 more than his previous career high. Heck, it’s only 21⅓ fewer than he’d thrown in the previous two seasons combined.

Both will now have one less month to get their bodies back into fighting shape.

After returning from a 16-day shutdown in late June and July, Suárez looked like a more-than-capable No. 3 starter. He finished the regular season with a 2.95 ERA in his last 14 starts and was even sharper in the postseason. In 14⅔ playoff innings, Suárez allowed just two earned runs with 13 strikeouts and six walks.

Like Wheeler and Nola, Suárez is coming off a career high in innings. He finished 2022 with 170 between the regular season and postseason. His previous career high was 106 in 2021. Unlike Wheeler and Nola, he is only 27 years old and has less than 350 career innings of wear and tear on his body. There were times this postseason when he looked like a pitcher poised for a breakout. If he takes a big next step in 2023, it would go a long way toward alleviating some of the current depth concerns.

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The Phillies have sent plenty of signals that they will continue to be aggressive with Painter. Dombrowski has said he wants to leave some flexibility in his rotation for one of his young pitchers. He hasn’t mentioned Painter by name, but he doesn’t really need to. Barring injury, it would be a surprise if the right-hander doesn’t make his debut at some point in 2023.

That said, Painter doesn’t turn 20 years old until April 10. It has been more than 40 years since the Phillies used a pitcher who was still in his teens. Regardless of age, a full workload is a rarity for a rookie pitcher. Since 2017, there have been seven in the majors who topped 160 innings and 15 who topped 150 innings.

Talent-wise, Painter is the real deal. In five starts at double-A Reading, he posted a 2.54 ERA with 37 strikeouts and two walks in 28⅓ innings. But he’ll enter 2023 having pitched a mere 109⅔ professional innings since leaving high school. A full season at the big league level is a lot to ask.

With Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin, and Syndergaard all free agents, the Phillies would be taking a big risk if they do not add a veteran who has a reasonable shot at giving them 150-plus quality innings. Whether they can find such an arm remains to be seen.