The Sixers will likely need to go through both the Celtics and Bucks for a different playoff ending

A few weeks ago, I was playing around with a few different ideas that could potentially be worth 900 words of column space in a major metro media market when I started putting together a case for why the Sixers’ best chance at the NBA Finals was to treat the last month of the regular season as if it was the first round of the playoffs. That may sound convoluted but let me try to explain. The Sixers had just beaten the Bucks 133-130 in a game that could best be described as roller derby with a basketball played at 1.5-times speed. Despite the win, they spent 48 minutes on the wrong side of the F = Ma equation, only barely withstanding Giannis Antetokounmpo’s unique brand of pummeling on the offensive end. My lasting thought: Imagine having to win a series like this? Imagine having to win two?

In all likelihood, that’s exactly what the Sixers were going to have to do if they finished as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the East. Beat Boston or Milwaukee in the conference semis. Beat the other in the conference finals. Fast-paced and physical is a tough way to go through a basketball game, let alone 14 in four weeks. Judging by what we’d seen out of the East’s top three contenders, there was always going to be a massive advantage to whoever finished with the No. 1 seed.

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At the time, the Sixers were four games behind the Bucks, but it seemed to me like their odds of overcoming that deficit would be better than beating Milwaukee in a seven-game series that came on the heels of a seven-game series against the Celtics. So I spent a couple of hours sitting at my computer screen, laying out a compelling case for throwing caution and load management to the wind and dropping the hammer into fifth gear for the rest of the season. Long story short, I ended up writing about a different topic.

But, lo and behold, look where we are. After climbing to within two games of Milwaukee in the standings and putting themselves tantalizingly close to controlling their own destiny, the Sixers have lost three out of four to all but squander the opportunity to face the Cleveland Cavaliers or New York Knicks instead of the Bucks or Celtics in the second round of the playoffs. Seems like a perfect time to dust off an old column and change the “shoulds” to “should haves.”

To be fair, it was always going to be tougher than it sounded. Back-to-back road losses to the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns without James Harden is evidence of that. Still, as recently as a week ago, the Sixers path to the No. 1 seed was as simple as this: beat the Bucks in Milwaukee on April 2, and win one more game than them over their other 11 remaining games. That’s a realistic path, even when you consider that the Sixers might have needed to win four out of six against Milwaukee, Boston, Denver, Phoenix, Golden State, and Miami. Is that really any tougher than winning four out of seven against Boston or Milwaukee in a playoff series?

Maybe it is. And maybe the Sixers won’t live to regret that 109-105 loss to the Chicago Bulls last week. Or maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. It’s been seven years since the top seed in the Eastern Conference advanced to the NBA Finals. It’s been two years since the Hawks showed the Sixers how little the top seed can mean.

But it sure feels like it means a lot more this season. For a couple of reasons. One, the Bucks and the Celtics look like the two best teams in the NBA. Two, the Sixers look like they are running a very close third. That wasn’t the case last year, when Harden was a shadow of what he is now and when the Sixers had traded most of their depth to acquire him. They’ve taken a meaningful step forward this year, thanks to the additions of De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels combined with the improvement of Harden and the continued emergence of Tyrese Maxey. Joel Embiid has the best co-star and supporting cast he’s had since 2018-19, when Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick and Co. came up a bucket short against Toronto, the eventual champions. But as we learned that year: it doesn’t matter if you are the second-best team in the NBA if you play the first-best team in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It ends up looking the same as all the other years.

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Now, the Sixers are looking at a situation where they could end up needing to win eight games in 14 tries against two teams who are playing every bit as well and probably better than that 2018-19 Raptors team was. With Saturday night’s loss to the Suns, the Sixers have now lost three of four and are four games behind the Bucks with eight to play. If we bag up Milwaukee’s remaining games against the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons, that would leave them needing only to win two of four against the Celtics, Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies, and Raptors. Or, they’d simply need to beat the Sixers.

The question I always get from people is, hey, are the Sixers really any different this year? To me, the answer is clear. Yes, they are different. They are as real as they’ve been. But being different doesn’t mean finishing different. The only question that matters is whether they can beat the Celtics and the Bucks. To finish different, they’re probably going to have to beat both.