Howie Roseman’s disparate first-round record could affect the Eagles’ approach in this year’s NFL draft

Howie Roseman’s responsibility as Eagles general manager in relation to the NFL draft is to collect and curate information into a board that ideally yields few major decisions when on the clock.

Roseman has long been viewed, both internally and around the rest of the NFL, as using this intelligence to help him predict how the first round may unfold better than most GMs. His deftness in this area has played a role in his success rate on selections made in roughly the first half, but not as much in the second half.

While an NFL team hitting on early first-round picks vs. later ones isn’t exactly a revelation, the significant disparity between pre- and post-No. 14 batting averages since Roseman became GM is of considerable note with the Eagles owning Nos. 15 and 18 in next week’s draft.

“Every draft there is a cutoff on difference makers, and so that doesn’t mean you’re going to be right on the difference makers,” Roseman said Wednesday. “Think about all the top 10 picks that haven’t worked, either. But usually, those guys who have such unique skill sets, such unique tools in their body, they have a different chance to hit than other guys.”

The Eagles, to their credit, have done well at staying clear of the so-called “difference makers” who haven’t panned out. In four out of five cases, they targeted a specific prospect and traded up, sometimes from within the top 13 and sometimes just outside.

Only with tackle Lane Johnson (2013, No. 4) did they stand pat. But with defensive end Brandon Graham (2010, No. 13), defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (2012, No. 12), quarterback Carson Wentz (2016, No. 2), and wide receiver DeVonta Smith (2021, No. 10), the Eagles forfeited picks to move up.

» READ MORE: Five Eagles takeaways from Howie Roseman and Nick Sirianni's pre-NFL draft presser: Will they trade up?

But the question posed to Roseman was whether the Eagles’ subpar record on later first-round selections was relative to the league average or if there was some unifying reason why they have consistently come up short.

Defensive end Derek Barnett (2017, No. 14) was a middle-round pick, and not as much of a bust as most of the other examples. And the same could be said of wide receiver Nelson Agholor (2015, No. 20), who was essentially a Chip Kelly pick.

But like guard Danny Watkins (2011, No. 23), linebacker Marcus Smith (2014, No. 26), tackle Andre Dillard (2019, No. 22), and receiver Jalen Reagor (2020, No. 21), Barnett and Agholor weren’t deemed essential enough to warrant multi-year second contracts with the Eagles.

Roseman spoke about how improved draft preparation around the league has made it more difficult to find diamonds, but there are few surprises in the first round, even if the hit rate starts to drop rapidly in the final half.

“Now we’re basically in the information age where everyone really knows who … the top 100 players are going to be,” Roseman said. “That doesn’t mean we have them in the same order, but there are not as many surprises. … All this information is at your fingertips, and it just makes everything narrower and your margin for error narrower.”

This year’s draft has an uncertain feel about it because the general consensus on the quarterback class is that it isn’t strong. In six of the last seven years, a quarterback has been drafted No. 1 overall. That is unlikely to happen this year, and it’s possible one isn’t taken until after the top 10.

The last time that occurred was in 2013 when the Bills traded back for EJ Manuel at No. 16. Not only was that draft lacking in blue chip quarterbacks, but also the class, especially the top if it, produced few actual difference makers.

The Eagles, though, came away with one of their best hauls, having chosen Johnson, tight end Zach Ertz in the second round — both future Pro Bowlers — and defensive tackle Bennie Logan in the third.

“I think that people think about the 2013 draft because of the quarterback position. … So there’s some uncertainty about where the quarterbacks go in this draft,” Roseman said when asked about the similarities between the classes. “I think for us, we just go by our rankings and what we think is the right way to stack the board.

“We’ll be prepared to take our 15th player at 15 and our 18th player at 18.”

But like in 2013, the Eagles are unlikely to take a quarterback. Where prospects Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, and Matt Corral go, however, is likely to affect how they approach their two first rounders. Depending upon how many quarterbacks go before they pick, they may not need to move up.

In 2017, the Bears selected Mitch Trubisky with their No. 2 pick, but the Chiefs and Texans traded up for Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. While few are forecasting any of the above to be of that quality, quarterback-needy teams like the Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, and Saints have done well to disguise their plans.

“We see maybe teams’ uncertainty about who particular teams are going to take,” Roseman said when asked about the unknowns of the picks ahead of them. “Less so necessarily who we think those players would be, if that makes sense.”

He added: “I think that there’s consistency in terms of the players that we see going probably in the top 20. … I think where it will start to change is after that. I think you’re going to see a lot of different boards … between 21 and maybe 51.”

If Roseman is as comfortable with how the top 20 may play out as he seems, then concern over how the Eagles fare with their two first rounders may not be warranted. When there has been internal consensus, as is often the case on the first dozen or so prospects, Roseman has done well.

But when there have been differing opinions, as there tends to be when the “difference makers” are no longer available, that is often when he has run into trouble. And because Roseman is more of a by-committee decision maker than one who is comfortable making them unilaterally, the voices he may listen to alter from year to year.

And the process falls apart because there isn’t as much consistency. The same could be said of how Roseman has approached the second and thirds rounds, when he’s more involved than he would be during Day 3 when the draft almost runs itself.

Roseman, though, has an increasing number of factions to consult when gathering his information. It has to be overwhelming, especially when his draft-loving boss immerses himself in the operation. His record hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been bad, either, especially when compared to some of his competition.

But even though Roseman makes the final decisions, owner Jeffrey Lurie has routinely absolved his GM of past mistakes, especially the ones that came in the second half of the first round.

“It’s a misnomer to think one person is actually making the pick. It’s an organization. And if we miss the organization, the organization missed,” Lurie said last month. “Maybe we collaborated, and there was a reason that it wasn’t seen as a good scheme fit. Or maybe there was a medical reason and that didn’t end up happening. Or maybe it was a misevaluation in some way.

“Today’s NFL, I can’t think of any team maybe — well, I’m sure there’s exceptions — with one person doing that. It’s his responsibility to collate and get all the information and try to make this decision and you hope the player you want will be there or trade up, trade down.”

But shouldn’t Roseman’s evaluation matter most?