Is Jalen Hurts better when he’s hurting? Is his injury a blessing with the Eagles’ upcoming schedule?
The quarterback has been a better passer when his legs aren't 100%.
Jalen Hurts played his best game as a professional quarterback Sunday at Washington. In games in which he threw at least 30 passes, he recorded his highest passer rating (135.7), his third-best completion percentage (76.3%), and the Eagles offense scored the second-highest total of points (38).
He played nearly as well the previous week when the Dolphins visited.
In both games he was hindered by a left knee injury that required a brace. The injury limited his elite mobility ... but it seemed to make him a more elite passer.
If so, it couldn’t have happened at a better time for the Eagles.
The Eagles need Hurts to maintain this level of excellence, because in the next five games they face four excellent teams with excellent quarterbacks: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in the first and fifth games, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the second, Josh Allen and the Bills in the third, and Brock Purdy and the 49ers in the fourth. (Purdy ranks third in passer rating.)
Generally, the quarterback who plays better in these games is the quarterback whose team wins.
It might seem counterintuitive, but Hurts playing at less than 100% from the waist down might not be a bad thing.
There’s plenty of evidence now. Hurts plays quarterback better when he’s hurt.
Why? For me, it’s because he’s able to run less, for sure. Because he’s asked to run less, for sure; fewer run-pass option plays, fewer designed quarterback runs. Because his offensive line knows it needs to form a conventional pocket for a manageable amount of time before he will, like a normal quarterback, unload the ball and live to fight another day. He tends to linger in the pocket longer, trust his reads and receivers more completely, and abort plays more willingly.
» READ MORE: A.J. Brown did the seemingly impossible as he entered rarefied air in the Eagles’ win at Washington
Hurts’ passer rating in Games 1-6 this season, pre-brace, was 84.7. He ran the ball 10.5 times per game.
Hurts’ passer rating in Games 7 and 8 was 123.9. He ran the ball 7.5 times per game.
We’ve seen this before.
In 2021, Hurts injured his right ankle. In the 12 games that preceded the injury, his passer rating was 83.9. In the final three regular-season games, his passer rating was 101.3.
That’s five regular-season games in which Hurts has played with leg injuries. Five games in which his coaches could not, in good conscience, design running plays that would both require him to use his usual speed and elusiveness and put him at risk for further injury.
So, is Hurts actually better when he’s hurting?
“There’s so many different variables,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “The style of game that you’re in. ... I think Jalen has continued to develop as a passer. ... He’s been on a roll here.”
The same was true in his first full season as a starter.
“Around that time, in 2021, led to the strides he made in 2022,” Sirianni said.
Hurts’ legs were healthy in 2022, and he was an MVP favorite until he suffered a shoulder injury.
Maybe he didn’t face top-notch defenses in each of those five games, but he hasn’t faced five dog defenses, either. And maybe, as Sirianni suggested, the coaches and the quarterback happened to find a sweet spot in 2021 and over the past two weeks.
And no, it isn’t the biggest sample size. But it’s big enough.
» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts shows grit in victory; A.J. Brown shows incredible skills
Sirianni didn’t discount the theory, either: “I’ll definitely look into that. If there is something, we’ll try to unplug it.”
For more than 25 years I’ve advocated for coaches to protect their franchise quarterbacks. The careers of Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, and Cam Newton all would have lasted longer if their coaches had been more careful; that is, if their offenses had asked them less often to leave the pocket by design. (Steve Young and Russell Wilson might fall into this category, too, but their romps tended to happen less by design than by circumstance.)
Instead, fearful of losing their jobs and desperate to maximize short-term production, coaches have skewed in the other direction. Nine of the highest rushing attempts by a QB in a single season have come in the last 11 seasons. Ravens star Lamar Jackson has four of them, including the most, 176 in 2019. Hurts is on the list twice, including 165 in 2022, and he surely would have broken the record if he hadn’t suffered a shoulder injury in Game 14 on a designed run, which cost him two games.
Hurts, of course, has produced with his arm when he’s healthy and mobile, but that’s only been the case once: the first 14 games of 2022. He finished that streak with a 104.6 passer rating, running the ball 11.1 times per game.
But, as Sirianni noted, we should examine those variables.
First, he had the best offensive line in football. Second, in Miles Sanders, he had a healthy home-run threat in the backfield, a back who paralyzed linebackers and safeties. Third, teams relentlessly spied on Hurts; that is, they left a player in the middle of the field to mirror Hurts and limit his rushing effectiveness. This meant sacrificing either a safety or their most athletic linebacker in their coverage schemes, which, of course, made passing easier. Fourth, the Eagles added A.J. Brown to the team in April 2022, and Brown has become the most potent receiver in the NFL.
At any rate, Hurts has proved that he has a deadly arm when he has healthy legs. It’s just that his accepted style of play — his expected style of play — repeatedly makes him unhealthy.
And, as he continually proves every time he can’t run, he doesn’t really need to.
» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni addresses Kenneth Gainwell’s social media spat: ‘He knows he made a mistake’