‘Well-behaving’ Eagles, NFL fans could make it ‘relatively safe’ to return to games, says virologist | Marcus Hayes

Exciting, isn’t it? Sports is charging back: NASCAR in May, golf in June, pucks and hoops in July, the NFL by midsummer.

Scary, isn’t it? Empty stadiums and vacant arenas suddenly populated with players and coaches, colliding and sweating and breathing on each other. Eventually we will be there with them: the fans and the press and the cooks and the janitors.

Will we all be completely safe? Of course not. No one is immune to the coronavirus that has infected more than 1.7 million people in the United States, has killed more than 100,000 Americans, and has claimed more than 1,000 lives per day over the last two weeks, even as states begin to relax their pandemic restrictions.

But maybe if we’re smart, we’ll have sports back sooner than later. Troy Vincent, the NFL’s football operations executive vice president, appeared on a radio show last week on The Team 980 in Washington that the league is “planning to have full stadiums” when the season starts in September. That might sound crazy, since most states still strictly restrict the size of public gatherings.

But Dr. Glenn F. Rall says it’s not crazy at all. Not as long as people act responsibly. A virologist, professor, and the chief academic officer at Fox Chase Cancer Center, Rall says sports can resume if we’re not reckless. Just cover your face, wash your hands, and don’t pick your nose.

“If the 65,000 fans in a stadium are all playing by the same rules,” Rall said. “A really well-behaving 65,000 people who understand the rules but who want to see a game — I can imagine that being a relatively safe behavior at some point fairly soon.”

The rules aren’t hard. If you have a fever or a cough or diarrhea, keep it in-house.

“Number one: You don’t go out if you’re feeling sick, even if you’re not sure if it’s COVID,” Rall said. “Just stay the hell home."

If you go out, be careful and considerate.

“Number Two: Wear a mask,” Rall said. “And wear it all the time.”

That would mean no eating or drinking in the stands; rather, food could be consumed in areas of the stadiums where social distancing is possible.

Can passionate fans be trusted to control themselves? Rall isn’t sure.

“I’m nervous about this,” he admitted. “When you put people in arenas, when they’re yelling and screaming — this is going to release lots of virus particles, especially if people are not masking or are sloppy in their masking habits. That’s a recipe for real problems.”

So keep it on, and keep it tight. Masks not only mitigate your inhalations and expectorations, they also keep your grimy little fingers from touching your orifices. Your nostrils and mouth are prime viral gateways, and, Rall said, even as adults we can’t seem to keep our hands off them.

Rall is a coauthor of the text Principles of Virology; so yes, he literally wrote the book. He realizes that his outlook might be startling, since we’ve still got to stand 6 feet behind the person ahead of us at the grocery store, and you can’t get a haircut or go to the gym. But he’s convinced the coronavirus roller-coaster ride has peaked, and three months from now, when most governors have released their states from virtually all restrictions — restrictions Rall has staunchly supported, and still does — Americans will be ready to be trusted to act wisely.

“That’s weird for me to say, because I don’t want that to happen. It sounds cavalier,” Rall said. “But the truth is, when I walk over to our ICU, I’m around actively infected individuals. I was not scared because I have confidence in knowing how humans get infected."

And, more important, how they don’t.

All return-to-play scenarios among pro sports leagues include some sort of testing schedule, both for active infections to identify persons who have the coronavirus, as well as for antibodies that indicate a person has recovered from COVID-19.

The leagues also are devising protocols for teams whose players or staff produce a positive test, which will involve quarantining the infected person, testing the rest of the group, and tracing the people who came in contact with the infected person. All leagues will require participants some measure of quarantine before resuming team activities, and most leagues plan to restrict the movements of participants during the calendar of play, whether it’s a winter-sports playoff bracket or a weeklong golf tournament.

The NBA and NHL are using modified end-of-season schemes to determine playoff seedings, all likely conducted in contained “bubble” areas that will minimize contamination. Major League Baseball, which hopes to resume spring training in June and start some sort of 82-game season in July, has its own testing agreement with a facility in Utah that will provide mass, rapid testing. NFL teams might be holding offseason practices by mid-June.

That’s all well and good, Rall said. None of those plans will keep everyone completely healthy. We need to accept that. Testing alone won’t guarantee detection, especially since the available tests are hardly foolproof. False negatives are so prevalent in detecting an active virus that it takes three tests in the same day to increase accuracy to more than 95%.

So what’s the best way to keep teams safe? Keep your droplets to yourself, keep your hands off your face, and wash your paws. Rall doesn’t fret much over baseball players and golfers, who socially distance most of the time, though basketball, football, and hockey players cause him concern — not their bumping and grinding as much as their spitting and snotting.

“There’s isn’t much of an issue with, like, basketball players, who are just dripping in sweat and slamming up against each other all the time. You don’t transmit this through body contact,” Rall explained. “You transmit this when Player A, who has it, wipes his nose, hits his own arm, and Player B’s hand hits Player A’s arm. Player B can now self-inoculate if he touches his own face. They can’t wear masks while they play, but they can be vigilant about not touching their faces.”

They still can contract coronavirus from aerosol droplets, of course. And they will.

“You will see players who will get infected,” Rall said. “The good news is, these guys and women are in pretty good physical shape. And flattening the curve has bought us time to learn about the virus. We know more about how to predict and treat people going down a scary road. Of course, if it was my kid playing, I’d be nervous.”

Rall, 56, would be less nervous if his kid wore a full-shield face mask on the ice or the football field, like the ones Oakley reportedly is developing for the NFL.

“Those things would help a ton,” Rall said. “That’s going to have a huge reduction.”

The rest of the time, wear a face covering. Despite arguments against the effectiveness of masks, all masks “kind of” work, and every little bit helps.

“This is not binary. Everything you do reduces your risk," Rall explained. "It doesn’t bring it down to zero.”

Neither will mass, rapid testing. The virus is devilishly difficult to detect in its first five days of incubation. After that, about 80% of victims present at least some symptoms, but by then they’ll have come into contact with dozens of teammates and support staff.

“Maybe I’m a little bit of an outlier on this, but I’m not a huge fan of tests. I don’t think they’re that predictive or that valuable," Rall said.

He understands this sounds strange coming from a scientist. "I realize that’s a bit of a heretical opinion to have.”

Heretical, but practical. Players might balk at wearing masks at meetings, but they’re adaptable, and they’re eager to return.

“I’ll feel comfortable no matter what the NFL decides to do,” Eagles center Jason Kelce said two weeks ago. “At the end of the day, if the NFL is allowing 90 guys in a locker room, it’s going to be in a safe and controlled environment.”

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A mask might not feel too good rubbing up against his COVID-beard.

“Nobody likes to wear a mask. They look stupid,” Rall said. “But somebody’s going to get a false negative, and they’ll be, like, ‘Screw it, I’m not going to wear a mask.’ And they may in fact be positive, shedding virus particles, and infect other people.”

And what happens when they test positive? The same thing as happens everywhere else: They quarantine, doctors trace the people the patient came in contact with, they test them, and likely have them quarantine. As of Friday none of the leagues had a firm return-to-play plan, though the PGA Tour’s protocol provided a sensible template.

Beginning the week of June 7, with the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, players and caddies will get a nasal swab test and be temperature-screened at a mobile testing site upon arrival. They then will undergo daily screening during the tournament. They will be tested again at least 24 hours before boarding chartered flights to the next tournament.

The first four tournaments will be played without fans, though fans could return as soon as a month later. That was scheduled to be at the John Deere Classic in Illinois, but organizers canceled the tournament Thursday because of expected poor attendance and fears of an outbreak of coronavirus if fans did attend.

The Tour said Thursday that it plans to replace the John Deere, the 11th event canceled because of the pandemic, with another tournament.

The John Deere was scheduled to happen right about the time Major League Baseball would resume, assuming it resolves the latest labor dispute. If football roars back in September, might state governors allow stadiums to be filled with baseball fans as early as July?

And, if they allow it, will they come?

A recent Twitter poll we conducted over three days indicated that, of the 537 respondents, more than half — 53% — wouldn’t go see a game right now under any circumstances. An additional 33% said they’d need to see some degree of screening — symptom questionnaires, and maybe temperatures taken upon entry — and some sort of social distancing. Only 14% said they’d attend without any qualms.

Katie DiMao was one of those. A project manager at a digital payment company from South Philly, DiMao, 33, owns a Phillies ticket plan, and she can’t wait to get back into the Bank.

“If it was up to me, I’d get back into the stadiums, and I’d rather be free to do a little more,” she said, but she’s empathetic to older fans, like her 71-year-old father, Paul. “I think about his demographic, too — people who may be more susceptible to it.”

People like superfan Tony Mauriello. He’s a 68-year-old retired sign maker who, as a high school senior from Natick, Mass., saw “The Goal” when Bobby Orr and the Bruins beat the Blues on May 10, 1970, then closed Connie Mack Stadium as a Temple freshman on Oct. 1 that same year.

“I’d go,” Mauriello said, shrugging, “but I’d wear a mask.”

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That’s not enough for Herb Feinstein, Mauriello’s friend. He’d once saved his wife’s face when he caught an oncoming puck in the second row at the Spectrum, but he and Marcie won’t be watching her beloved Flyers before a vaccine is developed.

“I wouldn’t go,” explained Feinstein, a 70-year-old accountant who lives in Huntingdon Valley. He shook his head, adamant: “My wife has some underlying conditions.”

Jim Ricciottie Jr. isn’t married, but he’s just as concerned as Feinstein with limiting the spread of the virus. Ricciottie is a sports-talk radio prototype listener: 43, owns an insurance agency in Margate, N.J., and is a three-sport season-ticket holder for the Eagles, Phillies, and Flyers. He’s happy that momentum is heading toward some sort of resumption, but he’s leery of any no-holds-barred scenario.

“I’d return, but only under the proper precautions,” Ricciottie said. “There would always be that thought in the back of my mind: ‘What could I contract? What might I spread?’ The prescreening option is what I’d be most comfortable with.”

Like Ricciotte, Paul Ferrante shares Eagles and Phillies season tickets with several friends, but none of them is interested in visiting either stadium any time soon.

“I don’t think the majority of us are comfortable with the idea of walking around the Hall of Fame club with all those people, wearing just a mask,” said Ferrante.

A 59-year-old retired purchaser for the federal government who, two years ago, had a hand in negotiating a government contract for ventilators – yes, the type of ventilators that have saved so many lives during the pandemic – Ferrante understands the science behind the epidemiological discussion.

“I know everybody’s dying to watch sports, but actually going to a game? I’d be hesitant,” Ferrante said. “I’m not going to pretend it’s not there. I’m not one of those people.”

So, no go until there’s a vaccine? You can’t blame Ferrante, but a vaccine could be months, if not years, away. Even with a vaccine, the virus could wind up being endemic, like measles.

“Who knows when a vaccine’s going to come? Who knows if a vaccine’s going to come?” Ricciottie said. “At some point, you’ve got to live your life.”

Maybe Ferrante and our 284 poll respondents currently content to watch sports at home will change their minds by the fall. Then again, virologists like Rall expect to see another COVID surge when cold and flu season descends with its coughing and sneezing and runny roses.

Will we even care? Do we need sports more than we need health?

“Sports has become part of the fabric of our society. It is a diversion from the drudgeries of our everyday life,” said Jay Deppeler a psychoanalyst and the executive vice president of Inperium, a corporate counseling company in Reading. “To get back to normal that way is important. We don’t want to be reckless, but we’re all going to accept a modicum of risk as we do get back to normal.”

“Normal” for NFL players is 65,000 screaming fans.

“You’ve got to trust that everybody’s trying to do the right things and try to help this situation and not be reckless with it,” Brandon Graham, the longest-tenured Eagle, said last week. Three women he loved died of COVID-19, but, he said, that’s life.

“If things happen, I feel like, things just happen.

"I’m not going to live in fear.”