The verdict on Eagles-Rams: It’s a Snow Contest! Eagles are built to win in the elements.
Just call them the postmen: Neither rain, nor sleet, nor snow shall keep the Eagles from their appointed rounds.
The last time the Eagles faced the Los Angeles Rams, Saquon Barkley broke LeSean McCoy’s single-game franchise rushing record. This time around, he could have his eye on an even more prestigious accomplishment: McCoy’s franchise record for rushing yards in a driving snowstorm.
Two things:
1) Regardless of the weather conditions, the Eagles are and should be strong favorites against the Rams in Sunday’s divisional round playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field.
2) If the current forecast holds true, they would become overwhelming favorites.
» READ MORE: Like LeSean McCoy’s Snow Bowl game, snow on Sunday would give Eagles’ running game a big advantage vs. Rams
To quote Rosemary Clooney and Danny Kaye:
Snoooooow …
Snoooooow …
Snoooooow!
Thus far, much of the weather-related focus has centered on geographical factors. The Rams are a dome team from sunny Southern California with a starting quarterback who has played all of his NFL home games in a dome and, before that, in temperate Athens, Georgia. Matthew Stafford was the quarterback in the heretofore most famous snow game in Lincoln Financial Field history. It did not go well for him.
The narrative is the extreme version of a familiar one. We hear it any time a warm weather team travels north or east or northeast to face a cold weather team. We heard it about the Bucs before the 2002 NFC Championship game. You get the drift.
Take a look back at some of the more infamous snow games in NFL history and you’ll see that the Eagles’ real advantage isn’t their thin-blooded opponent. Rather, their strength lies in their own identity as a football team. Their personnel and style of play happens to be one that is uniquely situated to excel in the elements.
— They run the ball between the tackles better than virtually any team in the league.
— They have one of the stoutest interior run defenses in the league.
— They have a quarterback who can run the ball himself and extend plays while forcing defenders to change directions quickly.
The geographical narrative? Rarely do I buy it. Maybe I’m still scarred from the sight of Joe Jurevicius running unabated down the sideline in the freezing cold. But there are plenty of other games that throw cold (frozen) water on the conceit.
— Dec. 8, 2013: Dolphins 34, Steelers 28
— Nov. 25, 1993: Dolphins 16, Cowboys 14
— 2000 AFC Divisional Round: Patriots 16, Raiders 13
» READ MORE: The Eagles aren’t losing to the Rams. But if they did, here’s how they would.
Three “snow games,” two of them among the more famous in NFL history. The first two were won by a team from Miami. The third should have been won by a team from Oakland. In the 2013 Dolphins-Steelers game, it was a warm-weather running back (Daniel Thomas) breaking off a 55-yarder to set up the game-winning touchdown at a snowy Heinz Field. In the Dolphins-Cowboys Thanksgiving Day game in 1993, it was the “cold-weather” defensive tackle (Leon Lett) hydroplaning into a blocked kick to turn the game. And, most famously, in the 2000 divisional round, it was the cold-weather quarterback (Tom Brady) fumbling away a chance at a game-winning field goal, ensuring that the Patriots’ 2000 Super Bowl victory would go down as a one-year blip relegated to the dustbin of history.
Our historical survey of snow games suggests that the deciding factor is rarely the location, location, location of the teams involved. Much more consequential: the ability to run the football.
Eagles fans need no introduction to the classic case study. McCoy’s then-franchise-record 217 yards against the Lions is the lasting memory of the Eagles’ 34-20 win in the snow in 2013. And rightfully so. What history forgets is that the Eagles rushed for 299 yards as a team. Chris Polk and Bryce Brown combined for 69 yards on 10 carries. But the real X-factor was a young dual-threat quarterback named Nick Foles, whose one-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-1 with 8:18 left gave the Eagles a 28-20 lead. Foles rushed for 23 yards on six carries that day.
Brief aside: Foles’ rushing performance in 2013 is something that should be studied. At the time, his 221 yards on 57 carries was the highest single-season rushing output by a quarterback not named Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick, or Donovan McNabb.
Anyway, where were we? Right, running the football. It works. Especially in the snow.
A brief overview:
1) Oct. 18, 2009: Patriots 59, Titans 0
One of the great stat lines in NFL history occurred in four inches of snow at Gillette Stadium. Not only were the Titans outgained by the Patriots, 619-186, but Kerry Collins somehow managed to finish the game 2-for-12 for minus-7 yards and an interceptions while also running the ball three times for minus-1 yards.
The Patriots? They got 123 yards on 16 carries from Laurence Maroney and 67 on seven from BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Advantage: Patriots.
2) Dec 10, 2017: Bills 13, Colts 7
McCoy cemented himself as the greatest snow football running back in NFL history, carrying 32 times for 156 yards, including a 21-yard game-winning touchdown run with 1:33 left in the overtime. The game saw a total of 38 passes thrown, though part of that may have had to do with Jacoby Brissett and Nathan Peterman being the starting quarterbacks. Whatever the case, the Colts and Bills combined for 390 rushing yards on 97 carries.
» READ MORE: Summary judgments: Do the Sixers even have the option of tanking? Plus Stafford in the snow and Hurts in the cold
3) The entire weekend of Dec. 8, 2013
The Eagles weren’t the only snow victors during that freak Mid-Atlantic weather event. In Baltimore, fleet-footed Joe Flacco broke off a 22-yard run to set up a Ravens touchdown in a win over the Vikings. Jamaal Charles rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in a Chiefs win in Washington. In the aforementioned Dolphins’ victory over the Steelers, Thomas rushed for 105 yards on 16 carries and quarterback Ryan Tannehill had 56 on three.
Frankly, if you were making a list of developments that could break in favor of the Eagles on Sunday, high on the list would be a steady, accumulating snow. Anybody who has walked to the corner store in a storm can tell you the keys to victory: straight lines, a wide base, and heft. There are plenty of matchups where weather can serve to level the playing field. This is not one of them.
Just call them the postmen: Neither rain, nor sleet, nor snow shall keep the Eagles from their appointed rounds.
Especially snow.