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Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard could be on next year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Here are their cases.

Rollins' and Howard's careers are forever linked, and they'll be linked again later this year on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard were core players on the Phillies' run of playoff appearances from 2007 through 2011.
Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard were core players on the Phillies' run of playoff appearances from 2007 through 2011.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard grew up in different time zones and were drafted five years apart. Rollins left high school for the pros, called Veterans Stadium his first Phillies home, and played in two All-Star games before Howard reached double A. Howard was drafted out of college, set home run records while waiting in the minors, and The Vet was a parking lot by the time he reached South Philly.

They traveled different paths to Philadelphia and arrived at different times in the franchise’s trajectory, but it is a challenge to talk about one without mentioning the other.

Rollins and Howard played together for 11 seasons, won MVP awards in consecutive seasons, helped Philadelphia undergo a baseball renaissance, and captured the franchise’s first World Series crown in 28 years. Their careers seem forever linked.

So perhaps it is fitting that later this year Rollins and Howard are both expected to be added to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. The two Phillies icons are expected to join Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Jonathan Papelbon, and others as first-timers on the 2022 ballot.

Rollins was the spark of some of the best teams in Phillies history while Howard was the feared slugger hitting in the middle of those lineups. Neither player is a surefire Hall of Famer, but both can make an argument with Rollins’ case being the strongest. Here’s a look at their candidacies:

Jimmy Rollins

Rollins played 15 of his 17 major-league seasons with the Phillies and was the National League’s MVP in 2007, becoming just the second shortstop to win the award since 1962. He earned four Gold Gloves, made three All-Star teams, and won a Silver Slugger.

Hit King: Rollins is the Phillies’ career leader in hits and doubles and retired with 2,455 hits for three teams. Seven players — Pete Rose (Reds), Bert Campaneris (Athletics), Michael Young (Rangers), Tony Fernandez (Blue Jays), Garret Anderson (Angels), Luis Castillo (Marlins), and Luis Gonzalez (Diamondbacks) — were not voted into the Hall of Fame despite holding a franchise record for hits.

Rollins has more hits with the Phillies (2,306) than each of those players except Rose, who is banned from baseball, and Anderson, who had 2,368 for the Angels. Young, Todd Helton (Rockies), Carl Crawford (Rays), Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), David Wright (Mets), and Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners) are either active or remain eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot.

Since 1911, just eight other shortstops have totaled 2,400 hits. Six of the eight are Hall of Famers while the other two — Omar Vizquel and Miguel Tejada — have tarnished their candidacy with off-the-field transgressions.

Defense: Rollins’ fielding percentage with the Phillies (.983) is the best among NL shortstops between 2000 and 2014 who played at least 1,000 games. In those 15 seasons, his Defensive Runs Above Average — an advanced metric calculated by FanGraphs — is the best among all shortstops. Rollins led National League shortstops in fielding percentage three times. He is the only NL shortstop to win four Gold Gloves since Ozzie Smith won 13 straight from 1980-1992.

Feats: Rollins is the only player in history to hit 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home runs, steal 20 bases, and record 200 hits in a season. He did it in 2007, when he won the NL MVP despite not being an All-Star. He was the first shortstop in baseball history to make the All-Star team in his first two seasons. From 2001 to 2013, Rollins ranked second in the NL in runs scored, first in hits, first in doubles, and third in extra-base hits. His 38-game hitting streak from 2005 to 2006 is the eighth-longest in baseball history and the longest in 33 years.

Hall Comparison: Baseball-Reference’s similarity score says Rollins’ career aligns closely with Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell, both of whom are Hall of Famers. Rollins has more hits, home runs, steals, and runs than both of the Hall of Fame shortstops and a higher fielding percentage. But Rollins ranks below both in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Larkin was elected in 2012 on his third year on the ballot while Trammell entered in 2018 after being voted in by one of the Hall’s era committees.

WAR: This will likely be Rollins’ biggest hurdle as voters seem to often lean on WAR when making tough choices. His Wins Above Replacement (47.6) is the 25th-highest among all shortstops, per Baseball-Reference. In the last 60 years, no shortstop has reached the Hall of Fame with a lower WAR. Since 1980, just one player — outfielder and designated hitter Harold Baines — has retired with a lower WAR and entered Cooperstown. Rollins finished in the Top 10 in WAR just once in his career and is well below the average WAR (67.5) for a Hall of Fame shortstop.

Ryan Howard

Howard was the National League’s Rookie of the Year in 2005 and the MVP in 2006. He made three All-Star teams, won a Silver Slugger, a Home Run Derby, and was the MVP of the 2009 NLCS. He finished top-five in the MVP voting four times and was the second player in major-league history to win the Rookie of the Year and the MVP in back-to-back seasons.

Homers: All 382 of Howard’s career homers came with the Phillies, giving him the second-most homers and RBIs (1,194) in franchise history. From 2005 to 2011, Howard led the majors in homers (262) and RBIs (796). His slugging percentage (.559) over those seven seasons was the fourth-best and his OPS (.929) ranked 12th. Howard led the majors twice in homers and three times in RBIs.

WAR: Like Rollins, Howard’s WAR does him no favors as he finished his career with 14.7 Wins Above Replacement. He had a negative Defensive WAR in every season from 2006 to 2016, which hindered his overall number. For comparison, Howard’s WAR is slightly below Bill Buckner and slightly better than Kevin Millar.

Feats: Howard was the fastest player in major-league history to reach 250 career homers as he did it in 855 games. He’s also the fastest player to drive in 1,000 runs. His six straight seasons with 100 RBIs is a franchise record. Just six players — Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Giancarlo Stanton, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds — have hit more homers in a season than the 58 hit by Howard in 2006.

Comparison: Baseball-Reference says Howard’s career closely aligns with Prince Fielder and Mo Vaughn, two slugging first basemen who were stars of their era but not quite Hall of Famers. Vaughn averaged 37.8 homers per season from 1995 to 2000 and finished his career with 328, 54 fewer than Howard. His career WAR is 27.1, which is well below the average for a Hall of Fame first baseman. Vaughn was on the ballot for the first time in 2009, received six votes, and was dropped off. Fielder, who is expected to join Howard next year on the ballot as first timers, finished his career with 319 homers after averaging 38.3 homers per season from 2007 to 2012. All three sluggers had incredible peaks that were unable to be sustained into Hall of Fame careers.

What if? Howard’s Hall of Fame case would be much stronger if his Achilles tendon had not ruptured at the end of the 2011 NLDS. Howard’s career was never the same and his peak ultimately too short. He averaged just 109 games per season from 2012 to 2016. It’s the biggest detriment to his case as he lost what should have been five productive seasons.

Howard’s career was never the same as his OPS was .209 points lower in his five seasons after the injury than his eight seasons before it. He hit 30 or more homers in six straight seasons before the injury but never did after the injury. He averaged just 19.2 homers per season between 2012 and 2016.

What if Howard’s Achilles holds up, he avoids serious injury, and averages 30 homers per season for the final five years of his career. He would have a home-run total in the 400s and a much-stronger case for Cooperstown.

If so, maybe the Phillies could dream of an induction in the summer of 2022 featuring two players whose careers will always be linked.