The ghost of Jimmy Butler looms large for the Sixers in Game 7. Win, or lose.
The Sixers can exorcise the ghost of Jimmy Butler or spend another summer haunted by it. Those are the stakes of Game 7 against the Celtics.
They will either face him, or they will face the fact that they could be there with him. Either way, Jimmy Butler and his smirking grin will be on hand for Game 7. You may not see him in the flesh. But he’ll be there.
That’s what Butler does. That’s what ghosts do. They loom. They lurk. They haunt. At some point on Sunday evening, the Sixers will step out of TD Garden and into the twilight of whatever lies next. When they do, Butler will be there, one way or another.
The outcomes are so stark that it almost feels dishonest to suggest that they hinge on one game. Win, and the Sixers achieve validation. For Sam Hinkie’s Process. For Daryl Morey’s re-Process. For Hinkie’s infatuation with Joel Embiid. For Morey’s steadfast belief in James Harden. For the co-stars themselves. For their coach, whose teams have lost 20 of their last 30 potential close-out games, including their last four Game 7s. For the prospect of keeping all of them together.
» READ MORE: How a loss in Game 7 could kick-start The Process 2.0, or begin a wave of winning Sixers
Lose, and the Sixers may have played their last game of this latest micro-era. Harden selects free agency. Doc Rivers gets it selected for him. For the third time in four seasons, Embiid spends the conference finals watching Butler and the Heat.
What happens from there is anybody’s guess.
That last part is important. The uncertainty is the thing. The idea that Game 7 is some definite point of no return is still very much an idea. It’s a mistake to assume that anything hinges on Sunday’s outcome much less everything. The variables that will determine the future of the roster are far too complex to reduce to a simple if-then proposition.
The relevant questions, in order:
Does Embiid want to keep playing with Harden?
Does Harden want to keep playing with Embiid?
Would Harden take less money to sign elsewhere?
Would Harden take less than the max to re-sign with the Sixers?
Are the Sixers willing to pay whatever it would take to re-sign Harden?
Anybody who thinks they can predict the future of the Embiid-Harden partnership has access to information that even the principle players may not yet have. If either Harden or Embiid has gotten this far without being sold on the other, is it really possible for the outcome of Game 7 to produce a definitive opinion?
Beat the Celtics, and the Sixers still need to beat Butler. If they don’t do both, does the first really matter? A win would only grant them another chance at redemption, another opportunity to turn wrong into right, another crack at the man who was the last to lead them this close to a title.
Likewise, with a loss. The Sixers don’t have much room to pivot from their current roster. Maybe they find a trade for Tobias Harris that leaves them with a more complementary part or two. Maybe they can swap Tyrese Maxey for a player who brings a skill set that fits better alongside Harden. Maybe they can do it without living to regret it. But those are the maybe-est of all the maybes.
The coach is the easiest thing to change. Rivers is the guy who faces the highest stakes on Sunday. He’s acquitted himself well in the first six games of this series. Nobody thought the Sixers would get to this point. They won Game 1 on the road without their MVP. After losing two straight, they won the next two. They have played some impressive defense against one of the league’s most irrepressible scorers. For all their faults in Game 6, they simply needed three or four more open shots to fall. But, then, it’s a make-or-miss league. If the Sixers lose Game 7, they will miss the conference finals for the third time under Rivers.
Beyond that, a lot of the finality that people sense in this game is due as much to projection as it is to reality. And, a lot of that projection is due to the man who awaits the winner of today’s game. Sixers fans aren’t just frustrated at the prospect of watching another Game 7 loss. They are frustrated at the prospect of having to watch Butler lead the Heat further than the Sixers for the third time since they parted ways.
Beating the Celtics would bring plenty of validation. It would provide Daryl Morey with plenty of political capital in his offseason quest to keep the team together for another run. That said, validation is not absolution. A berth in the Eastern Conference finals would not single-handedly erase the mistakes the Sixers have made. Not with the biggest of them all still standing in their way.
Then again, maybe Game 7 is the most honest thing in all of sports. There is no subtext or big picture. There will be no more adjustments to make, no room to grow, no silver linings. Your best against our best. One game. Winner stays.
It may not be a coincidence that three of the last four NBA champions — not including the pandemic bubble playoffs — have won a Game 7 en route to their title. In fact, of the last 14 champs, only four made it through the postseason without winning a Game 7. The remaining group of 10 includes Rivers’ 2008 Celtics, one of two teams to survive two Game 7s during their run.
There’s a very good chance that the winner of Sunday’s game ends up joining the group. The Celtics enter the game as the current Vegas favorites to win the title. This, after the Sixers entered Game 6 with that distinction. That’s why the stakes feel so high. There’s a very real possibility that Game 7 is the biggest hurdle between the Sixers and a title.
In that sense, this year feels a lot like five years ago. It’s fascinating to think about the alternate history. What would have happened if Kawhi Leonard’s shot had not fallen? If the Sixers had won in overtime and advanced to face the Bucks instead of losing Game 7 at the buzzer to the eventual NBA champions.
Would it have given ownership the confidence and political capital to make Butler an offer he couldn’t refuse? Would it have saved the Sixers from wasting the following two seasons searching for somewhere else to turn? Would it have eliminated all of the questions that we -- and, perhaps, Embiid -- are currently asking?
Beat the Celtics, and they’ll get another chance to make those questions go away. Lose, and they’ll spend another summer searching for an answer they already had.
One way or another, Jimmy Buckets awaits.