The Embiid-Jokic MVP debate is too close to call. It might not be for long. | David Murphy
As dominant as Joel Embiid has been this season, Nikola Jokic has been almost as good. We might have to let them decide the MVP for themselves.
The dirty little secret about MVP voting is that there aren’t enough hours in the day to do it right. That’s why they usually make the writers do it. Everybody already hates us, anyway.
Like everything in life, the arrangement has its plusses and minuses. On the one hand, you spend four hours hunched over a glorified airplane tray table writing 800 words of majestic prose about a one-possession game for a 10 p.m. deadline only to be known as one of those ding-dongs that didn’t circle Aaron Donald’s name. On the other hand, you get to put MVP voter on your dating profile.
Me? I’m not an MVP voter, and I’ve never been more glad not to be one than I am right now. A couple of weeks ago, my editor suggested that I help fill the All-Star Break content void by laying out Joel Embiid’s case to be this year’s NBA MVP. The assignment sounded easy enough. As you may or may not be aware, Embiid is a local basketball star who is in the midst of a season that could easily end up as the top line on his inevitable Hall of Fame resume. He leads the NBA in scoring at 29.6 points per game, ranks in the top 15 in rebounds and blocks, and is coming off an All-Star Game in which he scored a team-high 36 points. In short, his is the kind of season that seems tailor-made for a columnist to climb atop a flagpole and call it a day.
Except .... well, it’s like I said at the jump. The more that I try to arrive at the honest opinion that Embiid should be the runaway MVP favorite, the more that I realize that I’ve watched way too much of Embiid and not nearly enough of the guy he must take it away from. That alone is pretty good evidence of home-court bias. Unlike a lot of Philadelphians, many of whom will soon be bombarding my inbox with poorly spelled and haphazardly capitalized hate e-mails, I was at least vaguely aware that Nikola Jokić had been mounting an honorable defense of his 2020-21 MVP award. I knew that his stat line was a virtual carbon copy of last season, when he received 91 of a potential 101 first-place votes. I knew that he’d actually improved his rebounding by three boards per game, and that he’d improved his effective field-goal percentage by 14 points, and that he was shooting a cool .372 from three-point range. Sure, he plays in Montana Territory. But they do have the internet there. At least, I think.
Thing is, I was ready for that. Like any good columnist with a preconceived narrative, I came armed with an arsenal of arguments so self-fulfilling in nature that I could not possibly end up mired in the crippling malaise of self-doubt. Yet the more I defended these arguments, the more fraudulent I felt.
Embiid has single-handedly kept the Sixers in position for a top four playoff seed despite them playing the entire season without their second-best player
This is true. He has. Frankly, it’s the most impressive aspect of Embiid’s performance this season. Nobody thought the Sixers would be where they are without Ben Simmons. Sure, Tyrese Maxey has been a revelation. Tobias Harris has been better as of late. But take Embiid away from this team, and they probably aren’t in the playoffs. They are 31-15 when he plays, 4-8 when he doesn’t. If Simmons’ goal was to make the Sixers realize what he meant to this team, well, mission accomplished.
But what about Jokić? The Nuggets are 1-5 when he is out of the lineup. They’ve played the entire season without star point guard Jamal Murray. They’ve played most of it without third-year star Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets have two fewer wins than the Sixers in a tougher conference. Unless I’m missing something, I’m taking this as strike one.
Embiid is by far the superior defender, and defense is 50% of the game
As far as I’m concerned, this remains the strongest argument. Embiid is a force of nature on the defensive end. The way he changes the game should be evident to anybody who watches opponents navigate his presence around the rim. Forget protecting the rim: Opposing ballhandlers don’t even think about it when they get into the paint. Problem is, defense is a hard thing to quantify. The Sixers are allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this year. That’s only 1.9 more than they allowed last year, when Simmons finished as a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. In my mind, that’s significant.
But what about Jokić? The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 108.5 with him on the court this year. When he’s on the bench, that number jumps to 115.7. The consensus holds that Jokić has been pretty damn good on the defensive end in 2021-22. I find it hard to believe that he’s been as good as Embiid. But that takes us back to where we started. Fact is, anybody who is reading this column has probably seen him much less than they’ve seen Embiid.
Really, where all of this leaves us is circling our calendars. March 14. 8 p.m. Wells Fargo Center. If you are looking for a Sixers game to attend and you don’t feel like betting $200 that Ben Simmons will suit up for the Nets on March 10, this is the one. Last I checked, tickets for the potential Simmons reunion were starting at $190 apiece for 200-level seats. You can walk up to the box office right now and get Nuggets-Sixers for $33.
If Embiid wants the MVP, this is his chance to take it for himself. Nearly two years have passed since the NBA’s two best bigs squared off in a regular-season game. Their numbers are virtually even. Their teams are virtually even. Instead of guys like me deciding it, Embiid and Jokic can do it for themselves.