The Sixers’ lack of young talent and the NBA’s evolving trade market made Lauri Markkanen an unlikely Plan B behind Paul George

As someone who was initially resistant to the idea of handing a four-year, $212 million contract to a 34-year-old veteran on the downslope of his career, I’m amazed at how big of a no-brainer it turned out to be. The latest piece of justification comes via the news that the Utah Jazz will at least listen to offers for budding star Lauri Markkanen. The big takeaway: The Sixers would have had little chance at winning the bidding for such a player.

I’ll try to explain:

It’s no coincidence that the Jazz’s willingness to listen on Markkanen coincided with the New York Knicks’ decision to trade a whopping five first-round picks plus Bojan Bogdanović for Mikal Bridges. If that’s the new base rate for a versatile second or third scoring option in his mid-20s signed to a team-friendly deal, well, Danny Ainge would love to hear your valuation of his version.

» READ MORE: Paul George was the Sixers’ only hope for a title. The risk is big. The odds speak for themselves.

Here’s the thing: The price that the Knicks paid for Bridges is not the overpay that most in the basketball intelligentsia portend it to be. I would argue that it is actually an underpay, because of one simple fact: Brooklyn isn’t getting any established young talent back in the deal. Which means their return is capped at the expected future value of those five first-round draft picks. Which isn’t nearly as high as it sounds.

I’d be stunned if the Jazz are willing to part with Markkanen in a deal based solely on draft picks. Which, keep in mind, is all the Sixers have to offer (four of them, in addition to 2024 first-round pick Jared McCain).

Reality is, there is no such thing is equitable value for a player like Markkanen or Bridges in a deal based solely on draft picks. They are invaluable pieces. Think about it. If one of those five first-round draft picks turns out to be Mikal Bridges, it will be a wild success.

The Nets’ last five first-round picks: Noah Clowney (2023), Dariq Miller-Whitehead (2023), Cam Thomas (2021), Saddiq Bey (2020), Nickell Alexander-Walker (2019). Would you trade Bridges for those five players?

In fact, let’s keep going back. Stop me when you can cobble together a package that would be fair value for Bridges: Mfiondu Kabengele (2019), Džanan Musa (2018), Jarrett Allen (2017), Kyle Kuzma (2017).

That’s nine first-round picks so far. Put together a squad with Allen, Kuzma, Bey, Thomas, and Alexander-Walker and you might compete for the eight-seed in the East. But none of those five would be a top-three scoring option on a legitimate NBA Finals contender.

Now, think about the trade that initially brought Bridges to the Nets. Brooklyn shipped Kevin Durant to the Suns in exchange for four first-round picks, plus Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Johnson. The most valuable part of that trade was Bridges, who made the Nets semi-interesting for a year-and-a-half and landed them five first-round picks.

» READ MORE: Jared McCain has a lot of Steph Curry traits. The Sixers were wise not to pass that up.

The smart general managers understand the calculus. The most valuable asset in the NBA is not future first-round picks. It is former first-round picks who have already established themselves as legitimate NBA starters and still have the ceiling that made them first-round picks. It’s why the Toronto Raptors traded OG Anunoby for a package built around Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett rather than future first-round picks. It’s why the Chicago Bulls traded Alex Caruso to Oklahoma City straight up for Josh Giddey rather than a couple of heavily protected first-round picks.

And, it’s why the Sixers could not count on making an offer for Markkanen that the Jazz would take seriously. They don’t have any young talent.

It’s something to keep in mind as the Sixers set about filling out their roster. Daryl Morey has aced the offseason thus far. In McCain, they drafted a player they think has a reasonably high chance at establishing himself as a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation piece, and who has a much higher ceiling. In Kelly Oubre Jr., they re-signed a player who already dramatically enhanced his market value in his 28-year-old season and still has some room to enhance it even further.

They have done all of this, and they still have four tradable first-round picks at their disposal. Technically, they need a fifth starter. In actuality, they need a 5a and a 5b: a guard who can handle the rock and a wing who can defend the four. Both of them need to be able to knock down a three. I’d love to see them add one more piece with some upside.

But, then, everyone is looking for that.