Michael Lorenzen could be more Roy Oswalt than Joe Blanton. First impressions of the newest Phillie are good.
Lorenzen dazzled for eight innings in his first start since the trade deadline. The Phillies are well aware of the impact such a pitcher can make.
If you weren’t impressed by Michael Lorenzen, you need to learn how to appreciate a pitcher with a sturdy lower half. There are plenty of situations where it wouldn’t be appropriate to meet someone and then immediately compliment them on their thighs. But, hey, this is baseball. When Lorenzen stands on the mound, he looks like a specimen who was uniquely designed to throw hard objects at high speeds.
You can understand why Dave Dombrowski wanted Lorenzen on the roster. The guy looked like a difference-maker on Thursday afternoon. It wasn’t just the eight innings of two-run ball that he logged in a 4-2 win over the Marlins in his Phillies debut. It was his presence.
Lorenzen cuts the figure of a classic power pitcher, and he pitches like one, too. He threw his fastball with authority, pounding the zone at 94 miles per hour without fear. Of his 52 four-seamers and sinkers, 39 went for strikes. He offset the fastball with equal parts slider and changeup, both of which he leaned on while grinding through the lineup a third time in the seventh and eighth innings.
The final line speaks for itself: eight innings, six hits, two earned runs, five strikeouts, one walk.
A few things to keep in mind. One, the Phillies hadn’t had a starter finish eight innings since Taijuan Walker did it against the dreadful A’s on June 16. Before that, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola both did it once. Two, Lorenzen himself had only done it once before in his career. Three, he did it with surprising ease. His second-highest velocity reading came on his first fastball of the eighth inning.
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Look, it was one start. The Phillies probably aren’t going to get 10 more that look exactly like this one. Lorenzen is already sitting at a career high in innings at 113⅔. At the same time, one start was enough to show us the potential impact that he can have. Before Thursday, the Phillies were 8-8 in games in which they scored four runs (excluding extra innings). This is why every general manager is always looking for pitching. You can never have too many guys who can make you feel like four runs is enough.
Long story short, Lorenzen has a chance to be something much greater than Kyle Gibson or Noah Syndergaard. Since the end of April, he has averaged over six innings per start with a 2.97 ERA. I’ve heard Joe Blanton comparisons, but Blanton never did that. After the Phillies acquired him in 2008, he posted a 4.20 ERA and averaged 5⅓ innings per start. The comparison rings true in one sense: The Phillies went 9-4 in Blanton’s starts.
That kind of mark can make all the difference in the world for these Phillies. This is a different team than last year. It has nothing to do with the offense. Last year, the Phillies could lean on Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for innings and a psychological boost two out of every five days. They don’t have that this year.
Credit Dombrowski for recognizing that fact. The Phillies can’t do it like they did it last year. Last year at the trade deadline, Nola had a 3.25 ERA and eight starts of six-plus innings and zero or one runs. This year, those numbers were 4.43 and three. Last year, the Phillies could count on a combined five or six shutdown innings from Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado each time through the rotation. That’s not the case this year (although Domínguez’s last couple of outings offer a glimmer of hope).
The narrative about last year’s team was always a little off. The 2022 Phillies were not underdogs. At least, not in the classic sense. They entered the playoffs as a 97-win team that happened to spend the first two months of the season as a 68-win team. It averaged out to 87, but they were 22 games over .500 over the last four months. They had the two best starting pitchers in the National League field, two of the best relievers, plus the reigning MVP, plus the regular-season home run champ. They had a formula that looked less like 2008 and more like 2010, when Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels were both Cy Young candidates followed by a trio of bottom-of-the-rotation guys and backed by a great lineup.
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That said, 2010 might be the more relevant case study for a guy like Lorenzen. On Thursday, he looked more like Roy Oswalt than Blanton. Everyone forgets that those 2010 Phils finished July at 56-48. They traded for Oswalt, went 10-1 in his first 11 starts, and clinched the division with a week-and-a-half to play.
Lorenzen doesn’t have nearly the pedigree that Oswalt did when the Phillies acquired him. But if he can be the midpoint between Oswalt and Blanton, there’s no overstating the difference it would make.
There is a trickle-down effect to good pitching, especially when you consistently get it in increments of six, seven, even eight innings. Lorenzen looks the part. In his first start, he acted it. The potential dividends are way higher than any right-handed bat could provide.