Ten potential Phillies (rental) trade targets to monitor before the MLB deadline

Last week, I told you why the Phillies should be active and aggressive at this year’s trade deadline. Today, I’m going to give you some potential targets that exemplify the areas Dave Dombrowski should be looking to address in the hunt for 100-plus wins. First, I’m going to tell you why I think this year’s deadline will be wilder than most, and why market forces could be working in the Phillies’ favor.

It has been a weird year so far. Heading into Sunday, there were a remarkable six teams on pace for 100 wins, two each in the AL and NL East, along with the Guardians and Dodgers. Obviously, the more wins that accrue among the elite teams, the more losses that accrue among everyone else. At least theoretically, that means more teams who will enter the trade deadline with incentive to sell off players to those elite teams.

Two other factors are pointing to a robust rental market ahead of July 30. One, an offseason in which veterans had to settle for short-term contracts. Two, a bucket of win-now teams that are dramatically underperforming expectations.

Of the 14 teams who qualified for the playoffs last season, four entered Sunday at least four games below .500 (Blue Jays, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Astros). That doesn’t include the Rays, Rangers, or Twins, all of whom were hovering around .500. Add to that group another bucket of teams that entered the season with playoff aspirations: Padres, Giants, Cardinals, Reds, and, arguably the Mets.

All of that bodes well for the Phillies, who could be in the market for short-term reinforcements at corner outfield and backup catcher, as well as the back of the bullpen.

Here are 10 examples of the sort of players I’m envisioning, five hitters and five pitchers:

We could see some big-ticket action at the deadline. Among the names who could conceivably hit the market: Randy Arozarena (Rays), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Marlins), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), even Kyle Tucker (Astros). I’m going to focus on rental bats for two reasons. One, their potential availability is easier to forecast. Two, the Phillies still have J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos under contract through at least 2025.

Max Kepler, Twins, OF/LHB, 31: Could be a sneaky-big trade-deadline prize if Minnesota’s season heads south from 24-22. The onetime top prospect has had a resurgence, with an .824 OPS and 27 HRs in 596 PAs since the start of last season. The 10th-year Twin will be a free agent after the season.

» READ MORE: The trade deadline is more important than ever for the red-hot Phillies. Here are three underrated needs.

Michael Conforto, Giants, OF/LHB, 31: Familiar face from his years with the Mets, has a .912 OPS and 15 homers in his career at Citizens Bank Park. In the midst of his best season since 2020 before landing on the IL with a hamstring strain: .280/.331/.490 with seven homers in 154 PAs. In the last year of a two-year, $36 million contract.

Mark Canha, Tigers, 35, OF/RHB: Professional hitter who can take a walk (.370 OBP since 2019), hit a home run (six in 174 PAs this year), and play first base or the corners. Hits righties well for a RHB. Your prototypical rental veteran.

Tommy Pham, White Sox, 36, OF/RHB: Steady veteran with postseason experience, including that big home run against the Phillies in last year’s NLCS. Signed a one-year deal with the White Sox after spring training.

Jacob Stallings, Rockies, C/RHB, 34: Won a Gold Glove with the Pirates in 2021 and swung a decent bat relative to position during his three years in Pittsburgh (2019-21). Non-tendered by the Marlins this offseason after a couple of disappointing years at the plate. Good defensive reputation who would make some sense as a short-term backup for Realmuto.

The reliever market generally falls into two categories: 1) Pure rental players who will become free agents after the season, 2) Late-prime players with a year or two of club control left on small-to-mid-market non-contenders. The Phillies should consider all comers. The bullpen need isn’t going away after this season. There have been some reports that A’s flamethrower Mason Miller could be available, but I can’t imagine the price for a 25-year-old, record-setting strikeout arm who throws 100 will be worth the injury risk. I’m also not in love with any of the Craig Kimbrel-stage closers who could be out there (Astros’ Ryan Pressly, Red Sox’ Kenley Jansen, Angels’ Carlos Estévez).

Names that could be worth knowing:

RHP Hunter Harvey, Nationals, 29: Onetime top Orioles prospect has been an excellent high-leverage arm for the last three seasons. A lot to love with a 97 mph fastball, a 55.4% ground-ball rate and 29. 2% strikeout rate. One more year of club control and a valuable $2.325 million salary for a Nationals team that is nowhere near competing.

RHP Yimi García, Blue Jays, 33: Workhorse high-leverage arm who has allowed one run and 11 baserunners in 18 innings with 22 strikeouts. Perfect 9-for-9 in save and hold opportunities. Appeared in 10 games during the Astros’ 2021 World Series run. Good mid-90s fastball with slider. Free agent after the season.

RHP David Bednar, Pirates, 29: Tough early going for the Pirates closer, but he has a 2.04 FIP (fielding independent pitching) in his last seven outings, including four saves. Might his troubling start make Pittsburgh more willing to deal if he reverts to form over the next month-and-a-half? He’s still in his physical prime and coming off a three-year stretch when he struck out 226 batters in 179⅔ innings while allowing just 12 home runs with a 2.25 ERA. Two more years of club control but in his second year of arbitration for a notoriously stingy Pirates organization.

RHP Michael Kopech, White Sox, 28: Walks way too many batters and makes things way too interesting to warrant paying a big price for a year-and-a-half of control. But he could be one of the more hyped names out there.

RHP Adam Ottavino, Mets, 38: Ground-ball machine who struck out 17 of the first 35 batters he faced this season before returning to earth as of late. Soon-to-be free agent with a 150 ERA+ (2.66 ERA) and 16 saves in three seasons with the Mets. His ideal role is more in the front of the bullpen.

We’re still 2½ months away from the deadline. The exact nature of the market and potential trade targets will depend more on what happens between now and then. But it could be a fun one for the Phillies.