Phillies president Dave Dombrowski has an up-and-down history with fixing bullpens | Bob Brookover
Dave Dombrowski has made some key additions since becoming Phillies president, but his work building the bullpen will likely determine the success of the team.
The primary focus of the Phillies’ offseason came to a successful conclusion Tuesday when new team president Dave Dombrowski completed a deal to bring back catcher J.T. Realmuto.
It’s difficult to give Dombrowski too much credit because the free-agent market for Realmuto fell the Phillies’ way and the team still needed to commit to a five-year deal worth $115.5 million to keep the best catcher in baseball. It had to be done and when contracts get that massive it is always ownership that has to sign off, so kudos to John Middleton and the Buck cousins – Jim and Pete.
The Phillies followed up the Realmuto signing Saturday by bringing back veteran shortstop Didi Gregorius on a two-year deal worth $28 million. That market also fell the Phillies way with the other top free-agent shortstops all being wiped from the board Tuesday, leaving Philadelphia as the most attractive destination for Gregorius.
Still, he got a two-year deal and he will likely be among the top 10 paid shortstops each of the next two seasons. That’s fair-market value and it works well for the Phillies, too, because it gives them more depth offensively, especially if the universal designated hitter does return in 2021. It also gives them more time to develop 2019 first-round pick Bryson Stott.
The Phillies have also done some recent shopping at the low end of the free-agent pitching market in an attempt to add some depth to their starting rotation. Right now, they’d go to spring training with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin in the top three spots and the recently acquired Matt Moore the favorite to win the No. 4 spot. That would leave Spencer Howard, Vince Velasquez, Ivan Nova, and Ranger Suarez competing for the fifth spot.
That doesn’t remind anybody of the 2011 four aces rotation, but it should not be forgotten that the Phillies had the most successful rotation in their division during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. According to FanGraphs.com, the team WAR of the Phillies’ starters was 7.0. Only Cincinnati (8.2) and Cleveland (7.9) was better. If you prefer the more conventional measuring stick of earned run average, the Phillies ranked 10th in baseball at 4.08. The nine teams in front of them and the four teams directly behind them in that department all made the playoffs last season.
Add in the fact that the Phillies were sixth in runs scored and that all five teams that finished in front of them in that department made the playoffs and it truly accentuates the dire cost of having one of the worst bullpens in baseball history.
If Dombrowski can fix that problem, he will get lots of credit. Based on his track record, however, it is not a guarantee.
He did quickly straighten out both the rotation and the bullpen shortly after arriving as the Boston Red Sox team president in the middle of the 2015 season.
On their way to a last-place finish in 2015, the Red Sox starters posted a 4.39 ERA that ranked 24th in baseball and the bullpen had a 4.24 ERA that was 26th. A year later, the Red Sox won the American League East with a 4.22 rotation ERA that ranked eighth in baseball and a 3.56 bullpen ERA that was ninth. It was a costly fix as the Red Sox spent $217 million to place David Price at the top of their rotation and were also willing to acquire Craig Kimbrel for four prospects and the $37.5 million that remained on his contract.
The Phillies had too many other holes to fill to spend that kind of money on their bullpen, which has likely left Archie Bradley’s one-year deal at $6 million as their major addition.
In addition to Bradley, Dombrowski has also assembled a cast of hard throwers in Jose Alvarado, Sam Coonrod, and Johan Quezada. The three most likely leftovers from last season will be Hector Neris, Connor Brogdon, and JoJo Romero. The above relievers have combined for 1,072 strikeouts in 945⅓ innings and they’ve also combined for a 3.81 ERA, which the Phillies would gladly accept after last season’s 7.06 mark.
Among the above, however, only Bradley and Neris have significant major-league time.
Dombrowski’s attempt to remake a bullpen with the Phillies is most reminiscent of what he had to do in Detroit, although the Tigers were a full-on disaster when he arrived in November 2001 and things got a lot worse before they got better.
It wasn’t until his fourth season with the Tigers that Dombrowski brought some semblance of competence to the bullpen, thanks in large part to the emergence of Fernando Rodney. A year later he assembled one of the best ‘pens in baseball as the Tigers surprised everyone and reached the World Series. By then, of course, he had also started to assemble a fantastic offensive team with one of his early great trades being the acquisition of Placido Polanco from the Phillies for reliever Ugueth Urbina.
That bullpen included closer Todd Jones, who had signed with the Tigers for two years and $11 million, but it also included a 21-year-old rookie named Joel Zumaya who posted a 1.94 ERA in 62 appearances.
Zumaya never enjoyed that kind of success again and the Tigers’ bullpen also fell apart after the 2006 season, finishing 23rd, 27th, and 22nd in ERA over the following three seasons.
Even the Detroit teams that won four straight division titles from 2011 through 2014 and went back to another World Series in 2012 under Dombrowski had bullpen issues, finishing in the bottom half of baseball in ERA each year.
That’s not to say that Dombrowski did not try or even succeed at times in bringing in talent.
He hit on some trades and free-agent deals. In 2010, he signed Jose Valverde and over the next three seasons the veteran closer compiled a 3.00 ERA and 110 saves. He also got it right when he signed Joaquin Benoit to a three-year deal worth $16.5 million before the 2011 season. Benoit posted a 2.89 ERA and 28 saves in 205 games for the Tigers. He also had a 3.44 ERA in 17 playoff games, but Benoit will most be remembered for giving up a game-tying grand slam to Boston’s David Ortiz in Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS with the Tigers on the verge of taking a 2-0 lead at Fenway Park.
Fair or not, Dombrowski will also be remembered by many in Detroit for never having a bullpen quite good enough to win the World Series.
Now, he has a new bullpen assignment in Philadelphia and the good news is that the Phillies’ 2021 relief corps almost has to be better than the collection that failed so miserably a season ago.