Dave Dombrowski built the Phillies to be this good. They’ve just never been this whole.
With a payroll of more than $245 million for the third straight season, it certainly better be among the most talented Phillies teams in history. And maybe some luck along the way.
It’s kind of funny that so much is being made of the Phillies being so good. They’re supposed to be this good.
Think about it. They were good enough to get to the NL Championship Series last year and the World Series the year before that, when they finally were whole and stable. This year, they’re whole and stable from the outset. Hence, 22 games over .500.
Dave Dombrowski built this team to perform exactly the way it’s performing. It doesn’t have a Mike Schmidt or Steve Carlton, but it does have as much talent as any Phillies team in history, maybe more, considering that Pete Rose was a waning 38-year-old his first season in town. With a payroll of more than $245 million for the third straight season, it certainly better be among the most talented Phillies teams in history.
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They’re off to the hottest start in franchise history, having won 37 of their first 52 games. They’ve swept seven of their last 12 series, including three wins in mid-April over the Rockies, whom they visit this weekend. They’re playing crisp, smart, effective baseball … which is how they’re supposed to play.
And no, we’ve never seen them this hot before. But we’ve seen them hot.
The future past
The Phils started 2022 with a 22-29 record, then Dombrowski fired overwound manager Joe Girardi. He replaced him with amiable bench coach Rob Thomson, who turned the temperature down in the clubhouse, went 65-46 and won the NL pennant. Thomson is still doing a fantastic job.
What else happened early in 2022? Well, after hitting a career high in innings in 2021 following a 60-game COVID season, ace Zack Wheeler had a wintertime shoulder scare, missed his first start, then went 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA in his first three starts. Relief pitcher José Alvarado needed an attitude adjustment in the minors.
But mostly, it was Girardi.
The Phils started 2023 with a 25-32 record, but got healthy and found their second wind, and went 65-40.
Last year, the Phillies lost Rhys Hoskins in spring training; Hoskins averaged 30 homers in his first four full seasons. By the time they reached 57 games in 2023, Bryce Harper had played in just 26, and he’d done so with a recently reconstructed elbow. That limited Harper to serving as the designated hitter, which forced Kyle Schwarber, baseball’s worst defender, into playing left field. Harper had three home runs and an .843 OPS by the 57th game in 2023.
This year, fully healthy, Harper has 12 home runs and a .934 OPS through 51 games. He’s also playing first base, which puts Schwarber at DH, where, bless his heart, Schwarbs makes just as many plays as he did in left field. His usual replacement in left field, Brandon Marsh, is elite.
The starters were wobbly early last year, too.
By Game 57 in 2023, Ranger Suárez — who missed the first six weeks with forearm tightness — was 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA. Wheeler, coming off a season-high in innings in 2021 and his first postseason in 2022, was 4-4 with a 4.33 ERA. Aaron Nola, in a contract year, was 4-4 with a 4.70 ERA, and was discombobulated by the new pitch clock.
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This season, after 52 games, Suárez is 9-0 with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.788 WHIP — walks and hits per innings pitched — which is the best in baseball. Wheeler, back on schedule, is 6-3 with a 2.92 ERA and a 0.975 WHIP, 0.210 better than his career average entering the season. Nola, re-combobulated (and paid), is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.046 WHIP.
Thank J.T. Realmuto for the starters’ renaissance. You know, the catcher Dombrowski signed for five years and $115 million in 2021; the catcher who’s having a career year both at the plate and behind it.
Again: This is how the roster is supposed to function when healthy and whole. This was Dombrowski’s plan. He won World Series titles in Florida and Boston. He’s going to be in the Hall of Fame. He knows what he’s doing.
Also …
OK, maybe Dombrowski has gotten a little lucky.
Is Suarez pitching better than hoped? Of course. But then, the Phillies always projected that Suarez would mature into a No. 2 starter. He was the backup plan in case Nola did not re-sign this past offseason.
Has Bryson Stott matured faster than hoped? Sure. But then, the Phillies always figured that Stott would be a 10-year middle infielder who would hit .280 or better; he was at .265 entering the weekend, and the move last year from shortstop to second base has made him a Gold Glove candidate.
Has Alec Bohm become a better run producer than hoped? Sure. But then, the Phillies always figured that Bohm, at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, would cover the plate and be a power threat to all fields; his improved defense is the only unexpected development. Bohm was the No. 3 overall pick in 2018, and No. 3 overall picks who play corner infield spots are supposed to be among the league-leaders in offensive stats.
Have Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens been bench bonuses? Sure. But Dombrowski always loved Sosa’s defense — he’s the team’s best infielder — and Dombrowski knew that, if Trea Turner went down, Sosa’s superior glove would compensate for his lesser hitting. Of course, Sosa, over his last 16 games, is hitting .326 with a .969 OPS. So, bonus.
Clemens, Turner’s roster-spot replacement, is hitting .259 with a .915 OPS since Turner’s injury, and he’s provided dramatic power. Clemens also can play five positions. He’s not in Philly by mistake. Dombrowski traded for Clemens in January of 2023. He’s doing his job.
Not every Dombrowski move has borne fruit.
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Relief pitcher Gregory Soto, part of the Clemens trade, has been inconsistent. The Phils hoped Seranthony Domínguez would be their closer last year and this year, but he has two saves and eight blown saves in the last two seasons. Craig Kimbrel stunk in the playoffs last year. But the performances of Matt Strahm and Alvarado compensate for those mistakes, and getting lucky with low-risk signings like Jeff Hofmann the past two seasons and Spencer Turnbull this season further offset the disappointments.
But then, there were damn few disappointments in 2022 and 2023, and fewer still in 2024.
Just as Dombrowski planned it.