Why the Phillies should make a run to the playoffs: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Craig Kimbrel, and Nasty Casty

A little more than a month ago, nothing besides Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott indicated that the Phillies might return to the World Series. Today, everything indicates that the Phillies are set for a second-half surge.

The Phillies are at 48-41, seven games over .500, and they sit just a half-game out of the third wild-card spot in the National League, from which they ran all the way to the Fall Classic. They were in the same position a year ago in the standings and were 49-43, so six games over .500.

The Phillies have won 21 of their last 30 games. Of those wins, 11 came over teams currently qualified for the playoffs. They’ve proved they can beat the best.

After starting 13-23 on the road, they’re 13-2 in their last 15 road games. They’ve proved they can win on the road.

» READ MORE: Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber need to carry the Phillies

These all are the hallmarks of contenders. The Phillies are contenders. Of their 73 remaining games, 51 are against teams currently out of the playoffs, such as the Padres, who visit Friday as baseball resumes.

The Phillies should make a run.

Why?

Aaron Nola makes his money in July and August.

His ERA in the dog days of summer is 3.11 for both months. His OPS against is .626 in July and .595 in August, the best of any two months. He leads the league with 21 homers surrendered, but in his career, he’s given up 25 homers in July, which is tied with April but still remarkable, since balls really fly in July. He has allowed only 19 homers in August, which by far is his lowest total.

Nola is the best-conditioned starting Phillies pitcher since Roy Halladay. He’s healthy. He steamrolled the Braves on June 22 and the Rays on July 4. His current 4.39 ERA would be the third-worst of his career if the season ended today, but it does not. Expect Nola to run through the rest of his schedule and earn that $200 million free-agent deal he wants.

With all due respect to Alec Bohm’s 57 RBIs and Kyle Schwarber’s 22 homers, Castellanos has carried the Phillies so far this season. His .301 average and .840 OPS lead the team. He has been the right-handed run producer the Phillies needed after Rhys Hoskins lost his season to a knee injury and while Trea Turner finds his footing as a $300 million marquee name.

The most promising indicator that Castellanos’ first-half performance was no fluke happened Tuesday night at the All-Star Game. He worked a nine-pitch walk, fouling off four consecutive two-strike pitches, in his second at-bat, then singled in his third. Simply put, he looked comfortable in the brightest spotlight of the year.

Red October 2022 completely exhausted Zack Wheeler, arguably the best pitcher in baseball from 2020-22. He pitched a career-high 213 innings in 2021, which might have led to shoulder worries and a lighter load early in 2022. Then Wheeler started six games in his first playoff run, or 35⅔ innings later in the year than he’d ever pitched.

» READ MORE: Five Phillies questions and answers at the All-Star break

He managed just 10⅔ innings in spring training, gave up 15 hits, had a 9.28 ERA, and didn’t get past the sixth inning in the first two starts of the regular season, after which his ERA was 5.59.

He then allowed one or zero runs in seven of his next 13 starts. In his last three starts, however, he compiled a 6.61 ERA. The Phillies won all three games, but Wheeler wasn’t quite as sharp.

The good news: Wheels won’t pitch again until Sunday. That will give him a nine-day break. After that, watch out.

Perhaps the most underappreciated development of the first half has been the resurrection of Craig Kimbrel’s career. After being traded across town from the Cubs to the White Sox, Kimbrel blew three saves at the end of 2021. In 2022, with the Dodgers, he blew five of 27 save opportunities, was tagged with three non-save losses, and lost his closer’s job.

Dave Dombrowski, a huge Kimbrel fan, signed Kimbrel to a one-year, $10 million contract but guaranteed Kimbrel nothing more than a chance to pitch. With Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado battling injuries this season, Kimbrel has won the closer’s role. He’s 14-for-14 in save chances ... or 15-for-15 if you count his save Tuesday in his ninth All-Star Game.

The 35-year-old recorded his 400th save in May. He’s been to the postseason eight times. He is the club’s first All-Star closer since Jonathan Papelbon in 2015.

Kimbrel has been a steal.

» READ MORE: Kenley Jansen on his fellow 400-save club member Craig Kimbrel: ‘I want to see both of us reach 500′