Phillies’ mission: Beat Braves now so they don’t have to in the playoffs

It would help the Phillies' cause to avoid another trip to the wild-card round this season. They might have to win two of three against Atlanta there.

Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker (left) and Phillies manager Rob Thomson shake hands on opening day in March. Will they meet again in the postseason?Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by David Murphy | Columnist

Published Aug. 21, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET

Things are starting to get real.

The Phillies entered Tuesday with a seven-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, but their once-healthy cushion over the rest of the field has evaporated. With 38 games remaining and a 73-51 record, a wide range of playoff scenarios was in play. They were .002 percentage points ahead of theDodgers (74-52) for the No. 1 seed but only a game ahead of the Brewers (72-52) for the second wild-card bye. With the Padres (71-55) and Diamondbacks (70-56) putting pressure on Los Angeles in the NL West, the Phillies’ first playoff series could come against any one of the other six teams in the field.

Their No. 1 objective right now: Avoid having to win two of three against Atlanta in the wild-card round.

Big bad Braves?

I won’t go that far. The presumptive National League playoff field features several teams who are more legitimate World Series threats.

The Diamondbacks? They were my preseason pick to repeat as NL champs. They’ve looked very much the part over the last month.

The Dodgers? They’ve added their two best starting pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Jack Flaherty), best reliever (Michael Kopech) and an MVP-caliber bat (Mookie Betts) over the last month.

The Mets? Lol, just kidding.

The Braves probably aren’t equipped to win three consecutive playoff series of increasing length. Their MVP is out for the season. So is their ace. Practically everyone else in the lineup looks like a shell of the player he was in 2023. Truist Park hasn’t been the launching pad it was last season. Are the Braves really capable of winning nine games over the course of two weeks? They sure weren’t in the last two postseasons.

But the Braves may not need to put together a complete series to knock the Phillies out of the competition. They may only need to win a couple of games. Entering Tuesday’s games, the Braves were 1½ games ahead of the Mets for the National League’s third wild-card spot, which would leave them playing a three-game series against the lowest-seeded division winner. Right now, that team would be the Brewers. But it could easily end up being the Phillies.

Those are the real stakes of their ongoing three-game series in Atlanta, which opened Tuesday night with Zack Wheeler facing Reynaldo López. It would still take a monumental collapse to prevent the Phillies from winning their first NL East title since 2011. A much more realistic proposition is watching the Dodgers and Brewers claim the top two overall seeds, thus forcing the Phillies to open up the playoffs in the wild-card series for a third straight year. With the Diamondbacks and Braves both looking at wild-card spots, the competition could be a lot tougher than it was in 2022 (Cardinals) or 2023 (Marlins).

The Braves are the team that should scare them the most in a short series. Veteran lefty Chris Sale is as intimidating a Game 1 starter as any in the majors. The current betting favorite for the NL Cy Young Award, Sale (2.62 ERA, 187 SO, 32 BB, 140⅔ IP) is more than capable of shutting down the Phillies’ lefty sluggers and going seven-plus innings against Wheeler. That would give the Braves a chance to be aggressive with their pitching staff in Game 2. Say, lefty Max Fried the first time through the order followed by López, or vice versa, followed by a bullpen that features four relievers with sub-2.90 ERAs.

The Braves’ bats have been waking up over the last month or so. Entering Tuesday, they were averaging 5.0 runs and 2.0 home runs per game along with a .793 team OPS. They’ve been sparked by slugger Matt Olson, who had a sub-.700 OPS as recently as July 31 but was hitting .273/.380/.591 with six home runs in his last 18 games. Ozzie Albies could be back in the lineup at some point in September. Losing third baseman Austin Riley to a broken hand is a big blow, but it’s too early to know what his status will be in October.

Keep in mind, the Braves entered Tuesday having won four of their six games against the Phillies this year. Regular-season success didn’t end up meaning much the last two postseasons. But this time around, the Phillies would be the team facing all of the pressure.

The Braves would surely draw some energy from a chance to pay back the Phillies after two straight years of beating them for the regular-season division crown and then losing to them in the playoffs. Poetic justice is a powerful force in the postseason. The Phillies have enough to worry about as it is.