Phillies need more than a clinch out of this last week. They need to figure out who can pitch.

You’ve heard of Spahn and Sain and pray for rain?

For the Phillies this year, it’s Zack Wheeler and pray for a weeklong Nor’easter.

Or maybe just pray, period.

There are a lot of reasons to think this Phillies team is poised for another long postseason run. Bryce Harper looks like a man who will not lose. Trea Turner is swinging one of the hottest bats on the planet. They are surrounded by a lineup of grinders and mashers that is even deeper than it was one year ago, when they ground and mashed their way to their first National League championship since 2009.

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The problem with the Phillies is that the one thing they don’t have is the one thing they would not have survived without last postseason. They don’t have any shutdown arms besides Wheeler.

Last year, Aaron Nola entered October with a 2.36 ERA in his last six regular season starts. He’d allowed just two home runs in his last 34⅓ innings. He was a completely different pitcher from the one we’ve seen on the mound here in 2023.

Nola still has a couple of more starts to find a groove. He’s coming off an outing that looked a lot like the ones the Phillies will need from him this postseason. Six innings, two runs, eight strikeouts, no home runs, no walks. Crank out a few more like that and maybe we’ll reevaluate our angst.

Same goes for the back of the bullpen. Last year, opposing lineups saw two automatic zeroes looming any time they fell behind. This year, José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez have been far short of that. Alvarado has allowed a run in five of his last nine outings. He’s walked two batters in four of his last eight. Domínguez has been charged with a loss or blown save in three of his last six appearances. He’s struck out just 16 of 87 batters in 20 inning since returning from the injured list in late July.

All three have shown enough flashes that we’d be fools to leave any of them for dead. At this time last year, a lot of people had given up on the entire team.

Still, they need to show Rob Thomson something over these last 10 days. Until then, he has some figuring to do.

Talent wise, he’s their third best option, especially now that Michael Lorenzen’s wheels are currently in the middle of I-76, rolling free like a couple of tumbleweeds. Suárez has arguably been their most dependable starter since June with a 3.19 ERA and only one outing with 5+ runs allowed. He entered Thursday night’s start against the Mets sporting a 2.86 ERA in his last six outings with 36 strikeouts and 16 walks in 34⅔ innings over that stretch. So, yeah, Game 3 starter, right?

Thing is, Suárez might actually bring more value elsewhere. Think back to last postseason, when he made four appearances in an 11-day stretch between Game 3 of the NLCS and Game 3 of the World Series. The Phillies raved about his rubber arm, unflappable demeanor, and willingness to adapt to the circumstances. Wouldn’t it make sense to have him in the bullpen and on call for the first two wild-card games in case Wheeler or Nola implodes early? We’ve seen Nola go from zero to disaster plenty of times this season: backing him up with Suárez would allow Thomson to keep his volatile star on a shorter leash. Say the Phillies take a 4-0 lead in Game 2 and then Nola allows three runs in the fourth. Maybe Suárez can take you the rest of the way.

That’s more or less how Thomson handled the early going last year. It was Nola in the first wild-card game, Wheeler in the second, and the rest of the hands on deck. In a perfect world, the Phillies won’t need Suárez until Game 1 of the NLCS, when Wheeler and Nola will still be on short rest. But, given the state of the bullpen, he might be a necessary option to have even in a short high-leverage situation.

The guy’s been outstanding this season: a 2.55 ERA, 67 strikeouts, 18 walks, just three home runs in 49⅓ innings. Most of that work has come in low-leverage situations. But he’s been getting more high-leverage work lately, and the results have remained strong. Opponents are hitting just .186/.265/.302 in 51 high-leverage plate appearances this season and he has converted his last five hold or win opportunities (he’s 13-for-17 overall).

The Phillies have little choice but to hope for the best out of Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning. But if he, Alvarado or DomÍnguez falters, Hoffman could find himself in some big spots.

Like Hoffman, Strahm has been excellent this season. Unlike Hoffman, he’s done it before, and he’s done it in a variety of roles. The lefty has started eight games and thrown multiple innings in nine others. He has two saves and nine holds. In his last 17 outings, he has allowed just four runs with 23 strikeouts, three walks, and one home run in 18⅔ innings.

Long story short, Thomson has a ton of options for mixing and matching beyond Wheeler. What the pitching staff lacks in dominance, they’ll try to make up with depth. They have a week-and-a-half left to make their respective cases. After that, all eyes will be on the manager.