A big reason to hope the Phillies can pull out of their skid ... and three legitimate concerns

When going through hell, the best thing to do is think of all the people who preceded you in your travels. The greatest trick the devil can pull is convincing you that he’s singled you out. Adversity is like any test of strength. The muscle memory you develop is an asset down the road.

I’m talking about the Phillies, of course. A few days ago, there was a picture going around of Bryce Harper standing in the clubhouse after losing three out of four to the Diamondbacks. His face was blank, his eyes distant, his hair matted with sweat and dirt and sticking up at odd angles. He looked like a man waiting for the red eye home after a bachelor party in Vegas. There is no reaching such a man. There are demons that he alone must conquer.

The good news is that they can be conquered, because they’ve been conquered before. The Phillies have done it before. If they still are the team they think they are, if they still are the team they have shown themselves to be, they will emerge from the summer of 2024 stronger than they were when they started.

I’ve heard it said that a real World Series team would not do the things the Phillies have done since the All-Star break. They wouldn’t lose six of seven series, five of them to fellow contenders. They wouldn’t get outscored, 30-14, by the team that knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. Real World Series teams do not lose 17 of 24 games at a time when they should stomping on the right-hand pedal.

Except, they do.

Last year, both World Series teams did it. The Texas Rangers went 7-17 from Aug. 13 to Sept. 9 before recovering to win the title. The Diamondbacks went 7-17 from July 21 to Aug. 16. The Phillies know what happened from there.

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Those teams are not the norm. But they aren’t a rare exception. The 2017 Dodgers and 2014 Giants each endured similar midseason skids before winning the National League pennant. Even this year, the Phillies are not alone in that regard among contenders. The Astros and Yankees have survived losing 17 of 24.

Is a skid like this ideal? Obviously not. Some legitimate concerns have emerged for the Phillies over the last few weeks. Longer than that, really. As of Thursday, they were 18-24 in their last 42, 25-31 in their last 56. They won their 37th game on May 23. They have won 33 since.

The chief areas of concern:

It’s hard to put together a winning streak — and easy to do the opposite — when your rotation starts getting dicey at the No. 3 slot. Sánchez’s fielding independent metrics are much better than the 6.64 ERA he has posted in his last seven starts. But it’s worth noting that he already has 32 more innings than his previous season high, minors included. Not only do the Phillies need Suárez healthy, they need him pitching like he did in the early months of the season.

The good news is that the Phillies are 7-1 when Realmuto homers this season. The bad news is that 7+1=8, which leaves 60 of his games when he hasn’t homered, including 26 of the last 27. Even at 33 years old, Realmuto warrants the benefit of the doubt. He has spent most of the season either battling a knee injury or recovering from surgery to address that knee injury. He reached base three times in the Phillies’ 9-5 win over the Marlins on Wednesday, improving to 6-for-18 with four extra-base hits in his last five games. If that’s the new norm for the rest of the season, the Phillies offense will be in a much better place.

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You will rarely find a World Series team whose three starting outfielders are hitting at league average or worse. The Phillies did not acquire Austin Hays to be a cure-all. Such things are rarely available at the trade deadline for anything less than a punitive cost. The perfect world always required Brandon Marsh and/or Nick Castellanos to get hot. It’s the problem that seems most likely to linger.

Everything else that has been wrong with the Phillies mostly is attributable to the natural ebb and flow of a season. Superstars are going to slump. Relievers are going to hit walls. Sometimes, it happens all at once. It’s what 7-17 stretches are made of.

There is value in going through it. Better now than in the postseason. Rob Thomson and his clubhouse have preached a message of patience and perseverance. It’s a lot easier to believe with a team like the Phillies, who have repeatedly shown us what they are made of.