Summary judgments: thoughts on Ohtani/Harden price points, Juan Soto alternates, and an Eagles prediction

Corrections, clarifications, and updates to the record after the week that was . . .

1) The Phillies don’t need Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to move the needle at the trade deadline.

That’s a good thing, because neither is coming. July is a dangerous month for the local hive mind. You can talk yourself into all sorts of wacky stuff while waiting for training camp and the trade deadline. The argument against Ohtani is simple. The potential payoff for the Phillies is much lower than it would be for a team that actually stands a chance of re-signing the two-way superstar. Ohtani wants to play on the West Coast, and there are several West Coast contenders that would love to land an extra half-season of the Great Bambino-san. Thus, the Phillies would have to outbid teams that are able to price more future value into their highest offer. In other words, it’s almost guaranteed to be an overpay.

Almost.

You can argue the Phillies have more to gain out of those two-to-three months than other teams. Take the Dodgers. They don’t need a DH. In fact, J.D. Martinez is one of their best hitters right now. Unless they think Martinez can play the field regularly for the first time since 2021, Ohtani would bump him to the bench.

The Giants and Mariners would both get a big two-way boost from Ohtani, but both could easily miss the playoffs. The Giants are one of five teams vying for three spots, while the Mariners are only a half-game ahead of the Angels for ninth place in the AL overall standings.

That said, the Mariners and Dodgers both are much better equipped to swing a trade that wouldn’t feel all-or-nothing. Both could offer a young big league starter with top prospect pedigree, plus another piece or two. The Phillies’ system simply doesn’t have the depth to make an offer that is both competitive and not wildly reckless.

That’s a little less true for Soto. But only a little. Even if the Padres are open to dealing the 24-year-old superstar, you’d have to assume that they’ll need to be paid a premium to punt on 2023 instead of simply waiting for the offseason. Even the most reckless deal the Phillies can cobble together might not be enough. Given their outfield situation through 2024, it makes no sense to trade Justin Crawford rather than waiting for Soto to hit free agency. Especially when you consider the boost they can get from lower-priced options.

» READ MORE: Phillies trade deadline: The cost of pitching insurance, defense vs. power, and other questions

2) A right-handed bat is more important than left-field defense. So is a left-handed bat.

The good news about having Darick Hall and Jake Cave as your top internal DH options is that it shouldn’t be hard to find a significant upgrade. In a perfect world, that upgrade would be able to play left field and allow Kyle Schwarber to DH. But the priority is finding someone who can hit, period. The right side of the plate is preferable. Look ahead to potential wild-card matchups and you’ll find Miami’s Jesus Luzardo, who has already shut them down twice (14 strikeouts, five runs in 12⅓ innings) and Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott, who has allowed one extra-base hit to a lefty all season. Beyond that, though, the most imposing southpaw standing between the Phillies and the World Series might be the Giants’ Alex Wood. That would obviously change if Clayton Kershaw gets healthy and Julio Urias gets right. And there are plenty of bullpen arms to counteract. But you’d rather have a lefty who can hit righties than a righty who can’t hit anybody. The rental market has some intriguing options. Tommy Pham (Mets), Josh Bell (Guardians), and Jeimer Candelario (Nationals) could all potentially move the needle for a palatable cost. A reunion with Andrew McCutchen (Pirates) would actually make some sense.

Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals) might actually be the worst option, given the premium St. Louis command and the fact that he will be 36 in September and has a .716 OPS since early June. If you could guarantee Goldschmidt would be the player he was in April and May for the next year-and-a-half, then, yeah. But even the greats stop being great at some point.

» READ MORE: NBA backs down from Ben Simmons, emboldens James Harden

3) The Clippers aren’t trading Terance Mann, which means the Sixers aren’t getting anything close to equal value for James Harden.

The only trade that makes sense for both sides is Norman Powell, plus a couple of bad contracts (Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, etc.), plus some combination of picks. The Sixers should be insisting on Mann. The Clippers should be insisting they won’t trade him. Once training camp arrives, the haggling comes down to the number of firsts and the protections. Prediction: The bad money warrants a first-round pick, Harden warrants Powell and enough draft compensation to guarantee you can trade his contract and be left with a surplus if you need to clear it next season. That’s probably the minimum the Sixers can sell to their fan base and the maximum the Clippers can sell to theirs. Sounds like a deal.

» READ MORE: The Eagles are the best team in the NFC. No one should expect them to return to the Super Bowl.

4) The official unofficial pre-training camp Eagles prediction is 12-5.

The five losses are almost entirely schedule-based. There are enough sneaky tough situational factors to factor in a random loss, starting with a season opener in New England followed by a Thursday night game against the Vikings.

The losses: 1) at the Jets in Week 6, playing against the NFL’s best defense after a road game against the Rams; 2) at Kansas City in Week 11; 3) either the Bills or the 49ers in Week 12 or 13; 4) One of the two Cowboys games. 5) A rando.

Enjoy your Monday.