Sixers’ free agency story lines: James Harden’s future, Tobias Harris’ trade potential, and more

The first domino of the 76ers’ offseason fell on draft night, when they traded the 23rd pick and veteran wing Danny Green to the Memphis Grizzlies for De’Anthony Melton. Melton is a combo guard who is a disruptive defender, an excellent rebounder for his position, and an improved outside shooter.

That move was widely praised by outsiders, though it was not as flashy as a three-team trade for Eric Gordon involving Matisse Thybulle that The Inquirer reported the Sixers were pursuing entering the draft. But it still sets up an interesting free-agency period that opens at 6 p.m. Thursday, when the Sixers will again be tasked with shaping a championship contender around an MVP-level Joel Embiid, rising star Tyrese Maxey, and (presumably) perennial All-Star James Harden.

The Sixers could significantly shake up their roster with another trade or try to fill out their depth with limited financial means because of their salary-cap situation. Here are the top story lines to watch:

Recent reports have indicated that Harden plans to exercise his $47.4 million player option for 2022-23 by Wednesday’s deadline, and then sign a shorter extension.

That is a preferred long-term outcome for the Sixers. It would take them off the hook of having a Harden max extension on the books, in the event that his decline has truly begun, while still utilizing an immediate window to win.

Harden proved to be an excellent playmaker with the Sixers, ranking second in the NBA with 10.3 assists per game. But he was an inconsistent finisher and shooter, and disappeared in the second half of their season-ending Game 6 loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Should Harden instead choose to opt out, it would make him an unrestricted free agent. Yet if he is also somehow willing to re-sign with the Sixers at a discount beginning with the upcoming season, it would give the team more money to immediately use in free agency.

Assuming the contract situation gets resolved, Harden should benefit from a full offseason to fully heal his hamstring, and from extended practice time with his Sixers teammates. That was not possible when he joined them at last season’s trade deadline.

Green’s serious knee injury and contract situation — his 2022-23 salary was nonguaranteed until July 1 — made him arguably the most likely Sixer to be traded on draft night.

Now, Thybulle and Tobias Harris are considered the likeliest to be dealt.

Harris’ deal — he has two years remaining at about $77 million — could be used as an avenue to acquire a different star-caliber player. But it would perhaps most benefit the Sixers to split that salary between two quality role players to combat depth issues that became glaring down the stretch and during the postseason.

» READ MORE: What’s next for the Sixers after De’Anthony Melton? That depends on the trade market for Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle

It’s unclear whether Harris’ trade value is higher following an impressive playoff run, during which he was engaged defensively and found his offensive niche alongside Harden. That also demonstrated how he could thrive on this team, albeit at a significantly higher salary than most third or fourth options.

Thybulle, meanwhile, is still on his rookie deal but is extension-eligible this summer. A back-to-back member of the NBA’s All-Defensive second team, Thybulle remains a liability on offense but has the athleticism and potential that could still entice other teams.

President of basketball operations Daryl Morey refused to include Thybulle in the Sixers’ package in the Harden-Ben Simmons blockbuster trade. A draft-night deal never materialized. But Thybulle’s status is worth monitoring throughout the rest of the offseason.

There was oodles of hubbub surrounding the draft about Morey effectively creating a Northeast bureau of the Houston Rockets, starring Gordon and P.J. Tucker as familiar faces and proven veteran role players. That is sure to continue through this week.

The 37-year-old Tucker will reportedly be on the market because he will opt out of his $7.4 million player option for next season. At 6-foot-5, he is undersized yet rugged, with toughness that Embiid highlighted as an intangible the Sixers lacked during their series loss to the Heat.

Tucker is also a terrific corner three-point shooter, and a player who affects winning. His addition at the 2021 trade deadline helped the Milwaukee Bucks capture the NBA title a few months later. He then signed with a Heat team that finished with the Eastern Conference’s best regular-season record and reached the conference finals.

As The Inquirer’s David Murphy recently detailed, Melton’s $8.3 million salary for next season means that adding Tucker without trading Harris would require some roster-tweaking gymnastics to create the necessary cap space. This scenario assumes that Harden exercises his player option for next season, of course.

Gordon, meanwhile, has two years remaining on his contract and would need to be acquired in a trade. He has a $19.5 million salary for next season, and a nonguaranteed $20.9 million in 2023-24. Gordon, the 2017 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 13.4 points per game on 41.2% three-point shooting last season, making him a scoring spark off the bench or a complementary starter.

Even if Tucker and/or Gordon do not join the Sixers, the roster holes they must fill are the same.

They need athletic wings who can guard players such as the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and the Brooklyn Nets’ Kevin Durant — and bury open three-pointers. They could use bucket-getters who can create their own shot off the bench. And they could look for a veteran backup center as insurance alongside Paul Reed and Charles Bassey.

It’s possible to add helpful rotation players at cap-friendly salaries. Andre Drummond ($2.4 million salary in 2021-22) and Georges Niang ($3.3 million) were examples of that last summer.

» READ MORE: Memphis Grizzlies beat writer — a former Inquirer staffer — offers insight on new Sixer De’Anthony Melton

But names with a bit more pop — such as Kyle Anderson, Bruce Brown, or Delon Wright — would likely yield a higher payday than the $6.4 million taxpayer mid-level exception that the Sixers will have. Shedding the salary to open up the $10.3 non-taxpayer mid-level exception would, again, require some roster maneuvering, assuming Harden opts in.

An example of a player in a more realistic salary range is Nicolas Batum, who recently declined his $3.3 million player option but could still go back to the Los Angeles Clippers. Bobby Portis is also reportedly expected to decline his $4.6 million player option and return to the Bucks at a significantly higher salary. Also, the Nets’ Patty Mills has a $6.2 million player option, and could return to Brooklyn.

Otto Porter, an unrestricted free agent who this month won a championship with the Golden State Warriors and made $2.4 million last season, is another name to watch. T.J. Warren, who made nearly $13 million last season with the Pacers but has not played since December 2020 due to an injured foot, is a bit of a wild card.

Thursday, June 30 at 12:30 p.m. @phillyinquirer on Instagram

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