Overreaction or appropriate panic? Assessing story lines from the Sixers’ disappointing start

James Harden said the first week of the 76ers’ season “felt like we [were] 0-82.” Joel Embiid added that fans “probably wanted me to be traded, and the whole team to be sent down to the G League.”

The Sixers’ two All-Stars understood the outside grumbling following their team’s 0-3 start — including an atrocious home loss to the tanking San Antonio Spurs on Saturday — that swiftly turned a season that began with championship aspirations into early disappointment.

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In reality, the Sixers have been frustrated but not panicked. They are implementing four new rotation players, and are embarking on their first full season of the Embiid-Harden partnership. They finally got their first win Monday night over the lowly Indiana Pacers which, like the previous three defeats, does not deserve a sweeping conclusion that all has suddenly been resolved. This road trip — two games against the Toronto Raptors, a matchup against the Chicago Bulls on the second night of a back-to-back, and a Halloween night date with the Washington Wizards — will reveal more about where these Sixers currently stand.

Here are six early-season snap judgments about the sluggish start, and if they are an overreaction or possible sign of things to come.

Well, yes, because he and coach Doc Rivers have acknowledged as much. It’s why Rivers has deployed a different substitution pattern for the MVP runner-up, giving him breaks in the middle of the first and third quarters instead of playing him for about 10 consecutive minutes in each period.

The expectation was that Embiid would need some time to recover following offseason surgery to repair his torn thumb ligament. But the plantar fasciitis he was dealing with in the lead-up to training camp was a new revelation — and a bit surprising, considering that Embiid’s private trainer, Drew Hanlen, recently told The Inquirer that they were able to do more skill work this summer than during the previous two condensed offseasons.

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Rivers expects Embiid to play in those shorter bursts for a couple of more weeks. Then, the question is how long it will take for the All-NBA center to return to his dominant, efficient form. Though his numbers (26.8 points, 11.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists per game) remain impressive, the eye test has exposed periods when Embiid has looked gassed or displayed poor body language. Against the Pacers, however, he took pride in anchoring the ball movement and ensuring the Sixers were not “over-dribbling.”

Embiid has also acknowledged some tentativeness in his play, sharing that he has held back on using his hands when he boxes out because he believes that’s how his thumb previously got tangled and torn.

Harden is absolutely looking more like the perennial All-Star, averaging 26.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 9.8 assists through four games. According to Stathead, this is the first four-game stretch of his career when he has averaged at least 25 points and nine assists and committed fewer than 10 total turnovers.

It’s important to remember that Harden also looked spry and sharp in his first handful of games after he was traded to the Sixers. After that, though, he lacked explosiveness and efficiency — culminating in a scoreless second half on 0-for-2 shooting in their season-ending Game 6 loss to the Miami Heat in the playoffs’ second round.

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The difference this season, however, is how much healthier Harden says he feels, proclaiming “I can move” when asked about his increased strength while scoring 31 points on 13-of-24 shooting from the field against the Bucks last week.

Rivers has made it clear that Embiid is the Sixers’ first option. That means the ideal version of Harden is still a player who utilizes his elite court vision to balance playmaking and provide dangerous scoring.

The Sixers’ offense, which entered Tuesday ranked 13th in the NBA in efficiency (113.2 points per 100 possessions), needs something between Harden dropping 31 points but Embiid going 0-for-7 from the floor in the second half against Milwaukee, and Harden’s playoff fade to end last season.

Before totaling 36 points against the Pacers, the Sixers’ upgraded second unit had not met expectations following a strong offseason. That group scored 34 points in the first three games combined.

Though Montezl Harrell is a former Sixth Man of the Year, this is not a group anchored by an instant-offense scorer who creates shots with the ball in his hands. De’Anthony Melton and Danuel House Jr. are rugged defenders who can make catch-and-shoot three-pointers, while Georges Niang spaces the floor as a long-range shooter and Harrell needs to be fed the ball in the pick-and-roll.

Rivers also is not unleashing full hockey-style line changes, instead mixing in those reserves with various starters. The coach is particularly trying to identify who best plays off of Harden, using a stretch with Melton, House, Harrell, and Tobias Harris at one point during Monday’s first quarter. Rivers highlighted House’s “flip picks” to free up Harden, a product of the natural chemistry House already feels with his former teammate.

“We’re just trying to put it together,” House said after the win over the Pacers. “… Now we get to really work on stuff and take a deeper dive into detailing to make sure [we know when] we’re over the screen, under the screen, or if this guy helps.”

Rivers has not yet solidified a backup center, toggling between Harrell and Paul Reed and transitioning to a small-ball lineup with P.J. Tucker at center when the Sixers have needed a boost. The coach also said Monday that he wants to expand the rotation by one more player. Matisse Thybulle — a proven perimeter defender — got that opportunity against the Spurs, while Shake Milton got a turn against the Pacers. Furkan Korkmaz could also receive a chance before Rivers makes a decision.

The Sixers entered Tuesday ranked 22nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency (114.7 points allowed per 100 possessions), a far cry from Embiid’s public goal of being the best in the NBA on that end of the floor.

So far this season, the Sixers have allowed too many Boston ball handlers to blow by them, and too many Bucks to get open along the three-point arc. They let the Pacers rally in the fourth quarter before putting them away, and never generated enough stops against the Spurs. The Sixers entered Tuesday ranked 26th in the league in most fastbreak points allowed (19.3 per game).

» READ MORE: With Sixers newcomers taking minutes, well-known returners waiting for meaningful playing time

Rivers boasted during training camp that the additions of Melton, House and Tucker would cultivate a more aggressive style, with switching, trapping and putting more pressure on ball handlers. Those three players, plus a two-time NBA All-Defensive selection in Thybulle, are capable of guarding multiple positions and being tasked with slowing down the opponent’s top scorer. Rivers said the Sixers’ defense was ahead of the offense during camp, but slipped during each preseason game and has not yet looked stingy for a full 48 regular-season minutes.

Communication, chemistry, and trust are perhaps most important on the defensive end. There have been noticeable instances when teammates have gotten confused or tangled up, leading to a breakdown. This might be the most prominent example of the work-in-progress nature of this team.

Yet defense also requires intensity and effort — and some players have acknowledged publicly that they have not brought that consistently so far.

After a breakout 2021-22 and a blistering preseason, Maxey has not been the same consistent threat during the last week.

Though his scoring average is similar to last season’s (17.3 points per game vs. 17.5 last season), his shooting percentages (43.1% from the floor and 33.3% from long range) and assist and rebounding numbers are all down. He is coming off a 3-of-11 performance (with zero trips to the free-throw line) against the Pacers, and has had stretches when he is not as active or involved on offense.

Rivers has acknowledged that the first offensive step is helping Embiid and Harden establish more rhythm in the two-man game. As the Sixers keep adding more layers, the coach said, “Tyrese will be next in line.”

Maxey’s speed makes him a special weapon when the Sixers emphasize pushing the pace (they entered Tuesday with an NBA-worst 95 possessions a game). He is also a beneficiary of crisp ball movement, either on catch-and-shoot three-pointers or in attacking the basket off the catch.

According to BetOnline, Rivers is now the favorite to be the first NBA coach fired (3/2 odds). Earlier this week, he surpassed the Brooklyn Nets’ Steve Nash (5/1 odds), whom star Kevin Durant essentially demanded be dismissed as part of his offseason drama before returning to the team.

A coach often takes the blame — and the fall — before any players when a season unravels. And it’s understandable, given that this rough start follows the somewhat tenuous ground Rivers was potentially on at the end of last season, until president of basketball operations Daryl Morey assured during exit interviews that the coach would return in 2022-23.

» READ MORE: Win shows result of ball movement, but Sixers still need better sustained effort

Always lingering, perhaps unfairly, is that Rivers was hired by the Sixers before Morey, creating a perception that Rivers is not “Morey’s guy.” If the Sixers continue to struggle on this road trip, though, outside speculation about Rivers’ future will only grow.