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The Sixers should trade their first-round pick (and more?) for Brandon Ingram. Then pay him.

He might be Tobias Harris 2.0, but he'll be just 27 and he's a better scorer than Harris ever was. The draft won't help, LeBron ain't coming, and neither is Paul George. Everybody eventually settles.

New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram, shown against the Sixers in March, enters the final year of his contract in 2024-25.
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram, shown against the Sixers in March, enters the final year of his contract in 2024-25.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

Entering the 12th year of “The Process,” the Sixers find themselves in a predictably precarious position. (Why “predictably”? See below.)

The Sixers’ short-term future hinges on former MVP Joel Embiid, and so everything must be built around him, his outlandish talents, and his maddening self-limitations. Embiid is entering his 11th season. The first two were lost to foot injuries, and all of his first 10 were disrupted and diminished by seven surgeries and two broken eye sockets and rampant unprofessionalism. He’s never been in shape. He’s 30 going on 42. The NBA has never before seen such a combination of athleticism, skill, and size, but his perpetually poor conditioning gives him, at best, three more years of peak performance.

Part of the Sixers’ calculus must include the fact that next season doesn’t matter; at least, not in the context of winning a title.

» READ MORE: Daryl Morey dodges the Paul George bullet — aka James Harden 2.0. Sixers must be conservative.

The world champion Boston Celtics, the NBA’s best team all season, will return intact, if not improved, considering unicorn big man Kristaps Porziņģis — Wemby 1.0 — largely served as window dressing this season. The Milwaukee Bucks will be better than the Sixers, too, despite the presence of coach Doc Rivers. The Indiana Pacers might be as good as anybody.

So, barring unforeseen circumstances, consider the Sixers’ 2024-25 season a reset. That means the Sixers’ real window for winning is 2025-26 and 2026-27.

They currently have two significant players under contract: Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. That will change by the end of the week.

The draft starts Wednesday night. The draft pool stinks. The Sixers hold pick No. 16, and there is no player likely to be available who will help them, materially, within the next three seasons; Bub Carrington ain’t the answer, despite what your buddies from Pitt tell you. For that matter, even if the Sixers traded up, there is no player likely to be there between, say, Nos. 5 and 10 that would quickly move the needle, and I love Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht.

Free agency begins Sunday evening. LeBron James never was and never is coming to Philadelphia. Paul George, the only jewel among the shallow pool of remaining likely free agents (he can opt in with the Clippers by Saturday), reportedly no longer is on the Sixers’ radar, since he likely would cost them draft capital plus a maximum contract that would vastly overpay him both now and later. We addressed that reality over the weekend, and we promised to address the rest now.

The draft is upon us. Free agency looms.

Sixers president Daryl Morey will have more than $60 million to spend. How should he flesh out the roster?

First step: Trade their first-round pick, No. 16, and whatever else it takes, for New Orleans Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram, a willing and capable scorer.

Everybody eventually settles, right?

There is no player in the entire draft who will help the Sixers in the next few seasons more than Ingram; after all, it took Maxey three years to blossom. As we’ve seen throughout “The Process,” draft capital is more overvalued than election predictions.

Ingram is a better bet than high-mileage, 34-year-old DeMar DeRozan, who might return to Chicago anyway; better than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a 31-year-old entirely complementary player; better than Klay Thompson, a 34-year-old, surgically repaired former All-Star who’s always angry about something (Philly would destroy him); or even Jimmy Butler, who will be a 35-year-old part-time player. He missed 22 games on average the past three seasons. The Sixers already have a 30-something who misses 25% of each season.

The risk: Ingram turns into Tobias Harris 2.0.

The reward: Ingram, who will be 27 next season, should be entering his prime.

» READ MORE: The Sixers pick outside the lottery — and that’s not the worst thing

Ingram is just the best bet of a bevy of bad bets, with financial warts.

For one thing, if Ingram gets traded, it will trigger a 15% trade kicker. So, instead of making slightly more than $36 million next season, which is about $3 million less than Tobias Harris made last season, Ingram will make $41.4 million, which is more than Harris made.

Further, since this is a two-year project (and beyond), any trade for Ingram would, logically, involve a further investment. He will be a free agent after next season. He will want the max, four years and more than $50 million per season. Ingram would be eligible for such an extension during the middle of, or after the 2024-25 season.

This is a huge moment. Don’t forget the Sixers eventually want a controversial downtown arena deal. They lost in the first round of the playoffs, and they need to take a step forward.

Imagine how Philly would lose its collective mind if Ingram stinks after such an investment.

Ingram would be acquired to replace Harris’ disappointing scoring and his bloated salary. Like Andre Iguodala, Harris gave his all, but no Sixer since Iguodala was appreciated less than Harris. If Ingram doesn’t produce more than Harris, then this move will be torn to shreds.

The Upside

It’s a risk. A big risk. But Ingram looks like a better risk than Harris was.

Comparing their stats between their fourth and eighth seasons, Ingram and Harris shot about the same percentage from both two- and three-point range. Harris was a slightly better rebounder. Ingram was a far better (and more frequent) passer. Harris averaged 17.3 points with four teams, including 27 games with the Sixers. Ingram, who was drafted by the Los Angeles Lakers, averaged 23.1 points, all with the Pelicans.

Another difference: In that time frame, Harris scored best as a one-on-one, ball-dominant, half-court slogger. Ingram played with Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, catching and shooting and slashing and running, part of a duo or trio that required his deference. Harris, whether paired with Butler, James Harden, or Maxey, struggled in that role; Ingram is a more natural second- or third-option scorer than Harris ever was.

There is baggage, of course. Ingram eventually crumpled under the playoff pressure this year. Earlier in his career, he was accused of being unwilling to play through minor injuries.

Well, nobody’s perfect. Even George recently said he’d rather “play the right style of basketball” than “chase a championship.”

As we mentioned, Ingram is the best of a bunch of bad bets.

As we mentioned before that, this point in time always was likely to be an inflection point of “The Process.”

Predictably

Started in 2013, the success of “The Process” relied on the acquisition of top draft capital, preferably among the top five slots, but at least in the top 10. Those players either would develop into a superstar roster or be used as tradable assets who either could be flipped for key veteran pieces or more top-five draft choices.

Its weakness lay in the unpredictability of top-10 choices. The Sixers misevaluated or underdeveloped seven top-10 picks in the first six years of “The Process” (don’t forget Elfrid Payton and Mikal Bridges). In fact, they drafted Ben Simmons No. 1 overall in 2016. Ingram went No. 2.

» READ MORE: The ‘next’ moves pushed Celtics to a title. Can the Sixers pull off something similar this offseason?

To be fair, most teams misevaluate top talent, because the players in question are usually 19-year-olds at least three years from their bodies and minds maturing enough to be properly evaluated. Such was the case, over and over, for the Sixers.

We were always headed for this moment. At best, after 11 years of “The Process,” assuming they hadn’t already won big (they haven’t), the Sixers would most likely be left with one or two very good players and would need to rebuild the roster around them.

The first piece of the rebuild: Brandon Ingram.