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WNBA odds reset: Aces remain big favorites to repeat, Breanna Stewart running away with MVP

Coming out of the All-Star break, here are where things stand in the WNBA futures markets.

Jewell Loyd, a former teammate of Breanna Stewart when she was a member of the Seattle Storm, took home the WNBA All-Star MVP on Saturday night after scoring a game-record 31 points to punctuate a thrilling All-Star weekend in Las Vegas.

The WNBA returns on Tuesday evening with two games, signaling the start of the second half of the calendar with every team back in action by Thursday. While the Las Vegas Aces are far and away the best team in the league with a 19-2 record, the race for the second spot between the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun should be fascinating to watch, battling for supremacy of the Eastern Conference.

Just eight teams earn playoff spots based on regular-season record, and for several teams, including the Washington Mystics who saw their star Elena Delle Donne aggravate an ankle injury, every game will count from here on out, with seeds 4-9 separated by five games in the loss column.

» READ MORE: Kahleah Copper ‘was balling out;’ Brittney Griner dunked, and more sights and sounds from the WNBA All-Star Game

Here’s where the WNBA futures markets stand, including the championship and MVP odds.

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM, current at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Aces remain commanding favorite to repeat (via BetMGM)

  1. Las Vegas Aces: -300

  2. New York Liberty: +250

  3. Connecticut Sun: +2000

  4. Washington Mystics: +3000

  5. Dallas Wings: +10000

  6. Atlanta Dream: +15000

  7. Chicago Sky: +15000

  8. Los Angeles Sparks: +15000

  9. Minnesota Lynx: +20000

  10. Indiana Fever: +25000

  11. Phoenix Mercury: +50000

  12. Seattle Storm: +50000

Since the last time we took a look at the WNBA championship odds, the Aces’ odds lead only continues to grow, improving from a -130 favorite to win the title on June 23, to -300 as of Tuesday morning, continuing to separate themselves from the pack and the Liberty. The Aces opened the season as a slim +120 favorite over the Liberty.

The Liberty, led by Stewart and three-point contest champion Sabrina Ionescu, saw their odds grow longer, from +170 on June 23, to +250 as the second half of the season is set to tip off. Eastern Conference rival Connecticut, surging up the boards less than a month ago, saw their odds jump from +1200, to now +2000.

After the Washington Mystics, who now have 30/1 odds to win it all, no other team has less than 100/1 odds to win the WNBA championship, but look out for the surging Atlanta Dream, winners of six straight games heading into the All-Star break after starting the season 2-5, led by the stellar play of guard Rhyne Howard.

» READ MORE: Aces separating from Liberty as favorites to win 2023 WNBA title, Sun rising up boards

Breanna Stewart on her way to second MVP

Just eight players have odds of 50/1 or better to win WNBA MVP (via Caesars):

  1. Breanna Stewart: -350

  2. A’ja Wilson: +325

  3. Alyssa Thomas: +1400

  4. Jackie Young: +3000

  5. Kelsey Plum: +3000

  6. Elena Delle Donne: +5000

  7. Sabrina Ionescu: +5000

  8. Arike Ogunbowale: +5000

On June 2, just a few weeks after the WNBA season tipped off, the race to win MVP was much closer than it stands today, with players like Elena Delle Donne, Alyssa Thomas, and even Jackie Young trending up the board over the last month.

However, Stewart is running away with the award in the betting market, once valued at +190 a month and a half ago, now sitting as the commanding favorite at -350 at Caesars Sportsbook, in the midst of averaging career highs in points (23.1), rebounds (9.8) and assists (4.1)

2022 MVP A’ja Wilson is sitting comfortably as the second option, after do-it-all talent Thomas was as high as +550 to win the award on June 23 , just days before she became the all-time leader in triple-doubles. Now, Thomas sits at 14/1 odds to win the award.

Aces guard Jackie Young also saw a big jump in her MVP odds toward the end of June, with 10/1 odds to win the award after entering the month at +2500. She’s tied as the fourth option now, with her teammate Kelsey Plum.

» READ MORE: Mystics’ Elena Delle Donne gaining steam in MVP market after fast start to 2023 WNBA season

Will the WNBA champion be another team besides the Liberty or Aces?

  1. Any other team wins the championship: +700

  2. Aces or Liberty win: -1100

The short answer is no, at least according to the odds. However, the Sun did face off against the Aces in last season’s WNBA Finals, and have handed Las Vegas one of their two losses this season. Both of their losses came in the second game of playing the same team twice in a row.

» READ MORE: WNBA stars Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier plan to launch a new offseason league

The Liberty have had the Sun’s number this season, winning both matchups thus far, but a meeting between these two teams in the playoffs seems inevitable. DeWanna Bonner’s play this season alongside Thomas could be an X factor in neutralizing the Aces and Liberty’s high-scoring offenses.