World Cup quarterfinal predictions: Will Messi march on, can Brazil dance on, will Ronaldo start, and more

It has come down to the last eight teams and on Friday and Saturday, their fates will be decided. The Inquirer's writers prognosticate.

by Andrea Canales, Jonathan Tannenwald, and Gustav Elvin

Published Dec. 8, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET

After a surprise start to the World Cup highlighted by Saudi Arabia’s shocking win over Argentina and Japan’s stunner against Germany, the upsets tapered off toward the end of the group stage. The result is a final eight comprised of six traditional football powers (Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Netherlands, Portugal), the runner-up from four years ago in Croatia, and one Cinderella in pesky Morocco. The eight represent close to the best-case scenario for FIFA and the neutral observer, as we are poised for a potentially epic run-in highlighted by iconic players looking to cement their legacies and titanic matchups between soccer giants.

Croatia vs. Brazil

Gus Elvin: Croatia was the darling of Russia 2018 but it no longer is the well-oiled machine is was four years ago. Luka Modrić is now 37, Ivan Perišić is 33, and 2018 stars Ivan Rakitić and Mario Mandžukić are gone. Croatia still is a technically gifted team, but Father Time remains undefeated. On Friday, those aging players will encounter a buzz saw that is firing on cylinders right now in Brazil. The Seleção came to Qatar with one goal: to win the World Cup. So far, Brazil looks capable of delivering on that, as Tite’s men have played some delightful soccer, punctuated by the team’s mesmerizing 4-1 win over South Korea earlier this week. With Neymar back fit and Richarlison and Vinicius Junior in full verve, Brazil looks simply unbeatable when at its best. Croatia just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with a determined and free-flowing Brazil attack that, as is well documented, is really enjoying itself right now. Brazil, 3-0.

Jonathan Tannenwald: I won’t go as far as Gus on the margin, but Brazil will win comfortably. Brazil, 2-0

Andrea Canales: Croatia is a team that I believe has a great mentality for the World Cup. The Croatians are veterans who minimize mistakes to the point of almost not existing. They’re direct, creative (even as those elements seem juxtaposed), and coolly efficient, but this tournament has proven to be a young man’s game, and Brazil has the swaggiest, most joyful magicians on the ball today. It would be a shocker if they went out to Croatia and I don’t think they will. Brazil, 3-1

Netherlands vs. Argentina

Elvin: A young Netherlands side was mighty impressive in ruthlessly punishing the USMNT for its mistakes in a 3-1 win in the round of 16. Forward Cody Gakpo has been the breakout star of the tournament while veteran Memphis still has the quality to be a game change. The Dutch will come up against an Argentina team that has made hard work of its games thus far here, particularly against Saudi Arabia and Australia. Lionel Messi has been fantastic this tournament, but Argentina’s supporting cast — Lautaro Martínez, Ángel Di María, etc. — has left a lot to be desired. Argentina seems ripe to be upset here, but I won’t go against Lionel Messi, who seems a man on a mission to complete his legacy. Plus, we all want to see Argentina vs. Brazil in the semifinals. Argentina, 1-1 (win on penalty kicks)

Tannenwald: I really ought to pick the Netherlands, because if Argentina wins, something will happen at a men’s World Cup that hasn’t happened in 32 years. I really don’t want to jinx it. If someone else wants to take the risk, go ahead. All I will say is there’s a song about it, and if Argentina wins this game its fans will be singing it loudly. Argentina, 2-1

Canales: Saudi Arabia may have ultimately done Argentina a favor by waking it up and also taking the monkey off its back by killing that Argentine winning streak. Shaken out of its complacency, Argentina has been more focused and effective. Messi has now actually scored in a knockout round. Yet other goal scorers also are pitching in, and I think this bodes well for their cause, since there’s a lot less of the previous tendency to just stand around and watch Messi cook. This match is a clash of styles, and I believe the Netherlands could pull off a victory, but I’m sticking with my early tournament winner pick here and going with Argentina. Argentina, 2-1

The Saturday quarterfinal matches are similarly enticing, featuring the tournament’s Cinderella team, Morocco, as well as European powerhouse squads Portugal, England, and France.

Morocco vs. Portugal

Elvin: Morocco has been the surprise outfit of Qatar 2022, as the Atlas Lions have played compact football and have gone toe-to-toe with powers like Belgium and Spain. Walid Regragui’s team boasts some tricky individuals led by Hakim Ziyech, Achraf Hakimi, and Sofiane Boufal, so it would be wrong to dismiss Morocco, even against Portugal. Meanwhile, the Portuguese laid down a marker with a dominant 6-1 win against a good Switzerland and are oozing with attacking ability, regardless of the drama of whether Cristiano Ronaldo starts or not. I think Portugal, unlike Spain, has the incisiveness and style of play to pick apart Morocco, and look for it to find the net a few times, including one from CR7, to advance to the semis. Portugal, 2-0

Tannenwald: Gus’ score prediction sounds about right to me, especially if Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t start again. Portugal, 2-0

Canales: Portugal’s upheaval didn’t seem to be a distraction in its recent crushing win over the Swiss, but no team is playing in the tournament with more ardent fans than Morocco. Whether or not Cristiano Ronaldo starts, Portugal is facing a team coming together like never before. There’s also traditionally at least one semifinal surprise, and I’m picking Morocco to pull off the upset. Morocco, 0-0. The Atlas Lions advance on penalty kicks.

France vs. England

Elvin: The marquee game of the round pits reigning champion France against No. 5 England, which has scored 12 goals in four games, tied for the most at the 2022 tournament. England has the talent to trouble France with Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, and Jude Bellingham, but the biggest question will be: Does England have an answer for Kylian Mbappé? Fullback Kyle Walker, who has pace to burn himself, will draw the assignment against the world’s most explosive player. I give Mbappe and France the advantage, as the superstar is staking his claim as the world’s best player right now and already has five goals and two assists in Qatar. Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud also have been strong while playing leading roles for France, with Giroud filling in admirably for the injured Karim Benzema. Sorry, England, it’s not coming home. France, led by a goal and an assist for Mbappe, advances. France, 2-1

Tannenwald: As good as this England team is, and as motivated as it will be, France is simply better on all counts — and the English know it, from fans to media.

That will produce semifinals of Portugal-France and ... well ... I said I don’t want to jinx it. But I trust our readers are smart enough to figure it out. France, 2-1

Canales: I said before that the World Cup is a young man’s game, but at 36, what a tournament Olivier Giroud is having (shout-outs to 30-somethings Lionel Messi and Luka Modric as well). Giroud has become France’s all-time top goal scorer at this World Cup, and that’s a testament to his work and durability and tremendous killer instinct in front of the goal. Sure, it’s easier to score goals when there’s a threat like Kylian Mbappé around as well, but no amount of help from anyone else can take away from what Giroud has accomplished. He’s the reason I’m picking France to top the talent of England, because the striker just has a knack for getting the job done. France, 1-0.