Punxsutawney Phil is clueless, say meteorologists and computers — not to mention the trends

After seeing his furry silhouette on a frigid morning in Punxsutawney, foreshadowing six more weeks of winter, the groundhog may look like a genius.

At least around Philadelphia, and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

And at least for maybe 72 hours.

Philadelphia is in for a marrow-chilling three days, forecasters say, with wind chills in the teens and single digits. Temperatures Friday are due to fall into the 30s, drop into or near the single digits Saturday morning, and remain imprisoned in the 20s on Saturday.

As for the subsequent 5½ weeks, however, science and the trends of this winter and recent ones suggest that while groundhogs are known for their acute vision, Phil was seeing things.

» READ MORE: Philly just had its warmest January in 91 years

After assessing conditions in the tropical Pacific, assorted oscillations, and suites of computer models, the government’s Climate Prediction Center has the odds favoring a mild February just about everywhere east of the Mississippi, with its recent update expanding the zones of warmth. Only the western third of the country is in the cool zone.

It should be noted that the feds in the past have shown a certain animosity toward America’s most famous rodent. Given his questionable record — wrong about 60% of the time in the last decade nationally, 50% in Philly — they suggest that perhaps Phil should stick to dirt-digging.

Paul Pastelok, the veteran long-range forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., is calling for an overall mild February in Philly. However, he believes the region may end up experiencing six more weeks of something resembling winter — just not the six weeks Phil has in mind.

It is not the only player, but that La Niña cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific continues to influence the west-to-east upper-air winds across North America.

» READ MORE: Forecasters were saying early on this would be a tepid winter

The cooling has occurred over a massive portion of the ocean — as of Monday, roughly double the width of the contiguous United States and 1,400 miles from north to south — according to the climate center.

This is the third consecutive winter to coincide with La Niña, and perhaps not coincidentally the third consecutive one with above-normal temperatures around here.

Related to La Niña, the climate center says, the February pattern favors the development of high pressure over the Southeastern United States, which tends to repel coastal storms and cold-air intrusions into the Mid-Atlantic.

Using a variety of tools unavailable to the average groundhog, including multicycle forecast computer models run by the United States, Canada, and the European Union, along with snow-cover and sea-ice analysis — not to mention the trends of the last 15 years — the climate center is bullish on Phil whiffing again.

The center’s shorter-term forecasts into mid-February have the highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

And its outlooks continue to favor above-normal warmth for much of the East in the March-through-May period.

Pastelok, however, believes that we might be in for one of those springs with early buds and late freezes, and that Phil might have been onto something, it’s just that his timing was off.

He does see some signs of change in the north country, with cold air building in western Canada and a generous snow cover across eastern Canada, creating a pathway for Arctic air that “will get grabbed at times.” The result may be “a couple of good shots in February” around here.

» READ MORE: In a Philly winter, don't rule out anything

He expects a mild start to March, with early budding, but a cooldown heading into spring. “We might have a few late freezes to contend with,” he said.

By then, the game might be over for snow, but not for annoying chilly rain.

As for Phil’s forecast, he said: “I’m not sure if it’s six more weeks of winter.”

“It’s the following six weeks that we have to watch out for.”