Near-record warmth expected Halloween, as an all-time dry month ends
Trick-or-treating conditions should be ideal with temperatures in the 70s, and once again, no rain.
What almost certainly will become the driest month in Philadelphia weather history is likely to reach a fitting climax on Halloween with record-challenging warmth.
Forecasters are calling for temperatures to approach the all-time Oct. 31 high of 82, reached in 1946.
Whether it breaks the record at the official weather station at Philadelphia International Airport may come down to a few directional degrees of wind, said Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly.
A breeze off the Delaware River, where water temperatures Wednesday were around 60, could shave a degree or two off the official high. Staarmann said that would be “the only limiting factor.” If the winds evade the river, he said, a record may be in play.
But all technicalities aside, 80ish is almost spookily warm for Halloween. And it may feel as though all the relentless sunshine and dryness of a historic weather month have ripened the air to May-like temperatures at a time when one might expect to see frosty crowns on the pumpkins.
The trick-or-treat forecast for the Philly region
In recent days, the air has cooled rapidly once the sun has begun to wane. However, that will not be the case Thursday, forecasters say, with warming winds from the southwest.
The weather service has temperatures in Philly staying at 75 or better through 7 p.m. and above 70 until 10 p.m., for the after-hours crowd.
Winds from the southwest will pick up a bit during the day, said Dave Dombek, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., but probably not enough to affect witches’ flight conditions. The stronger breezes are expected to hold until late Thursday night as a front approaches.
As the weather service said in its afternoon discussion, “No tricks and all treats for Halloween.” But it also noted, “We could use the rain.”
New Jersey has a drought watch in effect, a step Pennsylvania hasn’t taken, as of Wednesday.
When is the next chance of rain in Philly?
The European forecast model has the aforementioned front sprinkling raindrops upon the region in the early morning hours of Friday, said Dombek.
But by then, October will have finished with no measurable rain in Philadelphia for the first time since record-keeping began in 1872.
Plus, even if raindrops do fall, nothing guarantees that they will land in the official rain gauge.
Dombek said this frontal passage more likely will follow the recent “wash, rinse, repeat” sequence, of dry front, cool-down, warm-up.
Although it’s hard to “wash” and “rinse” without water.