For Phillies fans, it’s a red-sweater day, and pitchers should like the forecast
The weather should be ideal, and the dry, cool air might make hitting homers a challenge.
Having shaken the storminess out of its system on Thursday, the atmosphere over Citizens Bank Park should be at its near-best behavior on Friday when the Phillies host their first playoff game in 11 years.
If you’re going to the game, a sweater or light jacket will do fine, and leave the rain gear home.
The sky should be a classic October deep blue with minimal cloud traffic, said Matthew Brudy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly.
The forecast suggests that Friday is going to be a good time to be a fan or a pitcher, but not necessarily a rightfielder, at least in the early going. When the game starts at 4:37 p.m., the sun’s remains of the day will be beaming directly toward right field.
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Forecast details
The game-time temperature is expected to be in the low 60s, falling toward the upper 50s after sunset.
The wind will be all but a no-show, drifting from the left-field line toward right at under 5 mph.
Don’t bring the umbrella or poncho: The National Weather Service has the chance of rain at absolutely zero throughout the game.
The air will be quite dry, and along with the falling temperatures that may well be to the advantage of Phillies starter Aaron Nola and whoever ends up pitching for the Braves.
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The weather factor
The humidity — and more properly, the dewpoint, which is a measure of the absolute moisture in the air —is going to be on the low side.
Dryness makes the air denser: Water molecules tend to lighten the air since they are lighter than other components of the atmosphere, said D.J. Pisano, a lifetime baseball connoisseur who is chairman of the physics and astronomy department at West Virginia University.
The dropping temperatures will add to the density and “the combination will definitely not be helpful for home runs,” he said.
Long-suffering Phillies fans might want to skip this next paragraph.
On Oct. 7, 2011, weather conditions were quite similar to those expected Friday afternoon. That night temperatures ranged from 56 to 58 degrees and the air was quite dry, not that the pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay, needed the help. The St. Louis Cardinals and the Phillies combined for a total nine hits, the Cardinals scoring the lone run to win the game, and the National League Division Series.
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About the sun
The sun may be an issue for the rightfielders in the early innings, said Pisano.
By Major League protocol, home plate is positioned looking toward the northeast so that the batter is facing away from the sun. Late Friday afternoon, the sun will be spending the end of its day shining over the roof on the third-base side.
“There may be one or two innings that the sun could be a factor,” Pisano said.
As for how the late-day infield shadows might affect the hitters, a detailed analysis by Gerald Schifman for Baseball Prospectus in 2019 found that the shadows had almost no impact on walks and whiffs.
In any event, both teams will be playing in the same conditions, and those could be a whole lot worse this time of year.
“All in all, the weather seems like it is nearly ideal,” he said, “and shouldn’t have any major impact on the game.”
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