A snowless winter and the recent dryness may brew a hot summer for Philly

On the first day of the meteorological summer, perhaps fittingly the atmosphere is about to soar toward mid-July, with highs possibly passing 90 degrees on Friday. If the seasonal outlooks are any barometer, get used to it.

Four major forecast services have placed their bets on above-average temperatures in the Philly region during the June 1-Aug. 31 period.

Weather.com and AccuWeather Inc., however, have issued outlooks predicting it won’t be as blistering as last summer, when Philly set new standards for heat. But Paul Pastelok, the veteran long-range meteorologist at AccuWeather, said Wednesday that he now isn’t so sure about that forecast, which was issued early last month.

» READ MORE: Last summer was a sizzler

The region, he said, may be “playing with fire,” and one factor might be the non-winter of 2022-23.

One reason why neither AccuWeather nor the Weather Company predicted a warmer summer than last year’s was obvious: Historically, 2022 ranked among the elite.

It was the second-warmest meteorological summer — the world weather community breaks the seasons into tidy three-month increments, noting that summery and wintry weather don’t necessarily obey astronomical cycles — on record in Philly.

After a June that was on the cooler side, the July 1 through Aug. 31 temperatures were the warmest among all 152 such periods on record, according to an Inquirer analysis. The average daytime high for the full 90-day period also set a record.

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Philly finished with a grand total of 0.3 inches of snow, and snow-deprivation was common through much of the East.

The Scranton area, for example ended up with just more than 21 inches, less than half of normal, and that raises the ante for summer heat, said AccuWeather’s Pastelok.

That lack of upstate snow is likely to have a far bigger factor than the El Niño warming of sea-surface waters in the tropical Pacific, which is unlikely to ripen in time to have much impact on Philly’s summer, he said.

» READ MORE: Philly's winter of 2022-23 was among the wimpiest ever

The Philly region counts on the northeastern Pennsylvania snowpack for “moisture getting into the water table, and the water system underneath,” he said.

“That’s one strike right off the bat.”

A further concern is the bone-dry May in which rainfall totals around here were more appropriate to the Southwest. Rain in Philly and other neighboring counties was a mere 5% to 10% of normal. Dry ground can heat up in a hurry. “You’re playing with fire right now,” he said.

Still, matching last summer’s 48 days of 90-plus heat would be a challenge. For now, AccuWeather is going with 34 to 39 such days for the entire warm season, which extends into the fall; the 30-year normal is about 30.

Despite the lack of rain, which tends to depress temperatures, May readings ended up being below normal, only the third time that’s happened in the last 13 months.

Pastelok said that was the result of a sequence of cool upper-air systems that also had the effect of closing off the region to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Some showers are possible Saturday, and Pastelok said that he expects a pattern change during the second week of June and that the Philly-area grasses and foliage should be getting at least some watering.

The federal government’s Climate Prediction Center and the Commodity Weather Group, which serves energy and agricultural interests, which both favor a warmer-than-average summer here, appear to be on board with Pastelok’s thoughts on the rains.

However, after Saturday, weather.com sees minimal chances for precipitation through the 14th.

For those who aren’t fans of higher energy bills and extreme heat, be aware that these three-month outlooks have been known to miss the targets. Chaos never sleeps.

However, in making its temperature projections, the climate center relies on an indicator with which it’s hard to argue: the trends.

The planet, and Philly summers, inarguably have been getting warmer.

» READ MORE: Temperatures are up. But thankfully, heat wave deaths are down.