Heavy rains, high winds, and beach-eroding waves are expected in the Philly region this weekend
It's possible that the National Hurricane Center will name the storm on Friday. The next on the list is Ophelia.
For Phillies fans, this weekend might evoke memories of the 2008 World Series — at least in terms of the weather.
A potent storm, part-subtropical and part nasty nor’easter, is expected to lash the Philadelphia region with potentially heavy rains and gale-force winds, generating beach-consuming waves all along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts.
A coastal flood watch also was posted for all of Delaware and for Jersey Shore counties, which also were under a wind advisory for gusts to 50 mph Saturday. A tropical-storm warning was issued as far north as Fenwick Island, Del.
Late Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center designated the swirling mass off the Southeast coast “Potential Tropical Cyclone 16.″ The center said that on Friday it would be likely to meet tropical-storm naming criteria, which includes peak winds of at least 39 mph, and become simply Ophelia.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the details,” said Alex Staarmann, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly. (And where have we heard that before?) But, “it’s looking likely.”
» READ MORE: The Jersey Shore is all-too-familiar with erosion. It's been a 100 years' war
Sand eaters
Staarmann said he expected winds to start building Friday and intensify Friday night and Saturday, with rain likely to start Friday evening at the Shore and during the early morning hours of Saturday on the mainland. Rains are forecast to continue through Saturday night, and possibly into Sunday.
The Shore towns, where 40 mph winds would be in play, are likely to get the worst of it, said John Feerick, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
With onshore winds forecast to continue steadily from Friday morning until late Sunday night, beach erosion would be a near certainty.
Those winds likely would cause waters to pile up on the back bays, and coastal flooding is a strong possibility, Feerick said.
What’s in a name?
» READ MORE: A hyperactive hurricane season has spared Philly and the Atlantic Coast, but the luck may not last
AccuWeather forecasters said the storm would gain strength when it came in contact with the ultra-warm Gulf Stream waters, where sea-surface temperatures were 80 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit, and that eventually would behave more like a traditional nor’easter as it moved north.
What difference would a name make? In terms of impact, none. As AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Walker observed, the raindrops don’t come with letters on them.
“In any event, it’s not going to be a very good weekend for outdoor plans,” the weather service’s Staarmann said.
Season in transition
September typically marks a transition period when the showery rains of spring and summer begin to yield to more-organized systems as storm-generating temperature contrasts sharpen.
One of the region’s more memorable early-season nor’easters occurred in October 2008, when a storm intensified off the coast and disrupted Game 5 of the World Series at Citizens Bank Park. Driving rains halted play in the sixth inning with the game tied, and the Phillies leading the series over the Tampa Bay Rays three games to one.
» READ MORE: The weather fiasco the last time the Phillies won it all prompted an MLB rule change
“I well remember that night,” said Feerick, a Phillies fan who was on forecast duty that evening.
The game was resumed two nights later, when the Phillies ended a 28-year championship drought.
While it wouldn’t be in a league with an interrupted World Series, it’s possible that Saturday’s Phillies game against the visiting New York Mets, scheduled to start at 4:05 p.m., could end up becoming part of a makeup doubleheader on Sunday — assuming the rain has stopped by then.