Philly gets a ‘trace’ of rain, and the dry streak may be in trouble
A front coming through Friday night and Saturday morning may ambush Philly's run at a record dryness streak.
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More or less out of the relentless blue, rain drops were sighted officially by the automated observer at Philadelphia International Airport on Thursday morning.
No flooding was reported. To say they didn’t amount to much would be an understatement. It was a mere “trace” that fell below the 0.01-inch threshold for “measurable,” meaning Philly’s rainless spell has reached day 26.
If the dryness continues until Sunday, it would tie the 125-year-old record for the longest dry spell in Philadelphia, but some new model guidance suggests it’s not a done deal, said Michael Silva, a lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.
At least one of the forecast models is “spitting out some light precipitation” as a front swings through the region Friday night into Saturday morning.
Given how dry the atmosphere has been, wringing out any rain would be a challenge, but it’s at least possible that 0.01 inches could land in the official rain gauge, he said.
With its latest update, the U.S. Drought Monitor had portions of Philly and the seven neighboring counties in “severe drought,” with the rest of the region in “moderate drought.”
Thursday’s phantom predawn shower did nothing to move the weather service to take down its “red flag” warning for brush fire danger in most of New Jersey.
The “rain” was associated with a front that has knocked temperatures back to seasonal levels after Wednesday’s record warmth, when it reached 84 degrees at the airport. Thursday’s high is expected to be about 15 degrees lower.
If the next front comes through dry, that 1924 record, set in October and November, is toast, Silva said. No other rain is in the foreseeable future.
As for what all this might have to with climate change, the weather service meteorologists who produce the day-to-day forecasts generally eschew such speculation. However on Wednesday, the Mount Holly office did post a comment, of sorts, on social media.
It pointed out that in recent years, precipitation has been above normal but that a link with the worldwide warming trend is “possible.” But the short answer is “we don’t know.”