Snow is possible in the Philly region Sunday night, but hold the plows

An inch or so is possible west of the Delaware River, forecasters say.

Shoppers shield from the rain with umbrellas during the Dec. 23 "snowfall," in which Philly officially recorded a mighty trace.Read moreJose F. Moreno / Staff Photographer

Updated Jan. 7, 2023, 5:51 p.m. ET

Published Jan. 6, 2023, 12:24 p.m. ET

The Philly region could experience its biggest snowfall of the season so far Sunday night. Not that it would take much to qualify.

An inch or so is possible into Monday morning, at least to the north and west of I-95, forecasters say. If 0.1 inches or more is measured at Philadelphia International Airport, that would be the city’s first official snow of the season; typically, that happens by mid-December.

It is even possible that “a few areas” wind up with 1 to 2 inches, the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly said in its morning discussion Saturday, but absolutely nothing is also in play.

The various models have been involved in their predictable run-to-run squabbles, and they are likely to continue.

An upper-air disturbance was forecast to spawn a storm off the Carolina or Virginia coast, the exact location important to which areas would get rain, snow, mixed precipitation, or nothing.

For Philly to get snow, this would be a thread-the-needle situation that would rely not only on where the storm tracked but how much it could exploit the modest supply of cold air. Temperatures from the surface through the atmosphere are expected to be near freezing, and this storm is not expected to pack a lot of juice.

The Arctic ice box is pretty well shut off, locked up by the polar-vortex winds swirling in the far north, meteorologists say, and we are thousands of miles from that atmospheric river of moisture inundating California.

» READ MORE: In a Philly winter, expect anything

In most winters, an insipid potential snowfall in January wouldn’t be noteworthy. But in 120 of the 138 winters in the period of record, Philly has recorded at least some measurable snow by Jan. 1. Historically winters with no measurable snow heading into January tend to remain snow-deprived, as though the atmosphere had planted a clue.

If it does snow, chance are near 100% percent that come Monday morning, the seasonal totals will remain well below the normal to date, which is just over 4 inches.

”In any case, impacts from any snowfall with this system appear to be limited,” the weather service said in its Friday afternoon discussion.